The Astros have been one of the more successful organizations in the last 10+ years, and with that success comes a commitment to winning at the MLB level. They have not shied away from trading top prospects to acquire MLB talent, which has left their minor league system bare. Over the last few years, they have consistently had one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball, but up until last season, that had not stopped them from dominating the AL West. From 2016 to 2025, they won 7 of 10 AL West titles and made it to 4 World Series in that time frame.
What makes the Astros on field success fascinating is that it is largely on the backs of bad draft decisions. Since nailing the 2015 draft with Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, the Astros first round picks have combined for 67 ABs and 0 IP in an Astros uniform. What makes the draft trends even more concerning is when looking at their top prospects below, only 3 have been drafted in rounds 2-5. For an org with so much success, the Draft has been a net negative for them, but they continue to win on the field due to their player development. There is no MLB org who does a better job identifying outlier talents and allowing them to succeed. That is what makes an Astros prospects list so difficult. On paper, it looks bad, but there are names on here who will become a high-level starter due to the player development structure they have built. Let the guessing begin.
Top Astros Prospects
The Top Tier
1) Tatsuya Imai – RHP, 27 YO
2025 NPB Stats: 163.2 IP | 1.92 ERA | 27.8% K% | 7.0% BB%
The offseason signing of Imai is the perfect example of why the Astros have been able to dominate the AL West for so many years, while simultaneously failing in the Draft. He has been dominant for years in the NPB and comes ready-made to make an impact at the top of the Astros pitching staff.
Imai attacks hitters from a low slot, which allows him to move the ball well horizontally. That allows his slider and changeup to be dominant offerings, as both of those pitches generated above a 40% whiff last season. What is yet to be seen is how the fastball will translate. It only averaged 94.8 mph and a 20% whiff last season, so the current profile carries some concerns. That is where the Astros developmental system will play a huge factor. Can the low release height allow Imai to attack hitters more at the top of the zone with a low VAA? If so, his already dominant slider and changeup will become even better. If the fastball doesn’t translate, Imai has a safe balance of swing and miss off-speed pitches and above-average command to be a valuable rotation piece.
2) Xavier Neyens – SS, 19 YO
2025 MiLB Stats: Did not Play
When the Astros selected Neyens 21st overall in the 2025 draft, he immediately rose to the top of their farm system. There is no other prospect in the system who compares with Neyens toolset, making it an easy decision to move him ahead of the many mainstays.
Neyens fits the mold of many of the prospects the Astros have had success with. His 70-grade power gives him an extremely high ceiling, and the Astros player development system will be tasked with toning down the swing and miss in his game. Standing at 6 foot 4, 210 lbs, he will never lose the ability to tap into his power consistently; it will be a matter of “clubbing down” and allowing himself more consistent contact. The Astros have had success with this type of prospect before, and Neyens has the potential to be special if everything clicks at the plate. He will most likely not stick at SS in professional baseball, and his frame and arm strength will play well at the hot corner.
3) Brice Matthews – 2B, 23 YO
2025 MLB Stats: .167 AVG | .222 OBP | .452 SLG | 4 HR | 1 SBs | 42.6% K% | 4.3% BB%
2025 MiLB Stats (AAA): .260 AVG | .371 OBP | .458 SLG | 17 HR | 41 SBs | 27.9% K% | 14.1% BB%
Matthews was able to make his MLB debut after back-to-back strong seasons in the system. In 2024, he rose up 4 MiLB levels, wrapping up his season in the PCL. That ascension allowed him to start the 2025 season in AAA, where he had an extremely good year, hitting .260/.371/.458 with 17 home runs and 41 stolen bases.
Matthews’ power-speed combo is his calling card. In 13 MLB games, he flashed that combination, along with some of the concerns that could limit his potential. He hit 4 home runs and slugged .452 at the MLB level, but that came with a ton of swing and miss, and overall inconsistencies. Matthews has shown the ability to consistently get on base with a 14.1% walk rate in AAA, so if he can simply swing at enough strikes to tap into his power and steal 30 bases, he would turn himself into an everyday big leaguer. Players with such high variance are always going to be prone to inconsistencies, but as long as Matthews approach at the plate is solid, he could impact the game with his power and his legs.
4) Kevin Alvarez – OF, 18 YO
2025 MiLB Stats (Rk): .301 AVG | .419 OBP | .455 SLG | 2 HR | 11 SBs | 9.9% K% | 12.0% BB%
As the recipient of one of the largest signing bonuses in the 2024 international class, Alvarez comes with an impressive combination of potential and floor. Standing at 6 feet 4, 184 lbs, it is easy to dream of the power potential. With a pretty left-handed swing, there is already natural loft to his swing, and adding muscle will turn his doubles into home runs.
Combine that projectability with the present above-average hit tool, which allowed him to walk more than strikeout this past season, and it is easy to get excited about the potential. He is a long way from making his debut, but the foundation is being laid for an impact OF bat who could rise through the system quickly. Another strong season will have him in every top 100 list.
Prospects Dynasty Managers Should Know
5) Miguel Ullola – RHP, 23 YO
2025 MiLB Stats (AAA): 113.2 IP | 3.88 ERA | 26.6% K% | 15.9% BB%
The Astros have made a living off identifying pitchers with outlier metrics, then developing them into valuable MLB starters. While Ullola has more command concerns than many in the past, the 70-grade fastball combined with 2 above-average offspeed pitches is a good foundation. In 431 MiLB innings, Ullola has struck out 576 batters and only allowed a .187 BAA. That dominance shows what he is capable of when in the strike zone. Ullola becoming an MLB rotation mainstay in 2026 would feel like an annual tradition for the Astros.
6) Walker Janek – C, 23 YO
2025 MiLB (A+) Stats: 263. AVG | .333 OBP | .422 SLG | 12 HR | 30 SBs | 26.6% K% | 7.5% BB%
After a bad 2024 season, Janek took a major step forward in 2025. While defense has always been his calling card, the offensive production is showing signs of what made him the 28th overall pick in the loaded 2024 draft. If Janek can be an average hitter at the plate, his arm strength and defensive ability will make him a valuable asset at the MLB level. It is concerning that he just spent his age-23 season at High-A, but if he can succeed against the upper levels this year, he could debut quickly.
7) Ethan Frey – OF, 21 YO
2025 MiLB (A) Stats: .330 AVG | .434 OBP | .470 SLG | 3 HR | 9 SBs | 20.5% K% | 16.4% BB%
Frey was the breakout prospect of the 2025 season for the Astros. After a solid JR season for the National Champion LSU Tigers, where he hit .331/.420/.641 with 13 home runs, he somehow got better in professional baseball. He finished the 2025 season improving his offensive output with wood and against a higher level of competition, while also showing a balance of swing decisions and contact skills. As a 3rd round pick, it seems the Astros may have found a player trending up after barely playing his first 2 seasons in college.
8) Joseph Sullivan – OF, 23 YO
2025 MiLB Stats (A+/AA): .220 AVG | .395 OBP | .403 SLG | 17 HR | 42 SBs | 27.7% K% | 18.3% BB%
On tools alone, Sullivan should be higher. There is nobody above him on this list, outside of Neyens, who possesses a larger potential of power and speed that can impact the game. But when you spend your 23 YO season at High-A and AA, hitting .220, it leads to questions about whether the hit tool will ever be enough. What makes Sullivan the most intriguing is his OBP and BB%. While he most likely will never hit .250, OBP is the more important stat. When you can generate enough walks to almost pass a .400 OBP, batting average stops being important. Combine that with the speed to steal 40 bases, while hitting 17 home runs, and Sullivan could be an everyday big leaguer, even with the AVG concerns.
9) Ryan Forcucci – RHP, 23 YO
2025 MiLB Stats: Did not Pitch
Forcucci just feels like the type of pitcher that the Astros get their hands on and develop into an MLB rotation mainstay. His FB is exactly what the Astros have developed well with a low release height and above-average vertical movement. He combines his plus FB with an above-average slider that plays extremely well off the upshoot heater. Before injury ended his Jr season, Forcucci had showcased an impressive strike-throwing ability. While he hasn’t pitched in professional baseball, Forcucci has all the makings of the Astros next successful pitching story.
10) Ethan Pecko – RHP, 23 YO
2025 MiLB Stats (AA/AAA): 80 IP | 3.83 ERA | 28.7% K% | 8.2% BB%
Another pitcher who feels like an Astros success story in the making. Pecko’s best offering is a fastball that grades as above average and generates a ton of swing and miss at the top of the zone. His fastball sits between 92-94, a slight uptick from his college days. He combines the header with 4 average offspeed pitches and average command. The combination of swing and miss stuff, with good command, makes him a solid bet to make an impact as a bottom-of-the-rotation starter.
11) Bryce Mayer – RHP, 23 YO
2025 MiLB Stats (A/A+/AA): 87.2 IP | 4.11 ERA | 30.2% K% | 7.3% BB%
Noticing a trend? The Astros have another RHP with a fastball that generates impressive swing and miss at the top of the zone due to its carry. They are the best in all of baseball at developing this type of pitcher, and they identify what they like and throw as many darts at the wall as possible. Compared to the others, Mayer has a better offspeed offering with a curveball that grades out as above average, and generates solid swing and miss. He also throws enough strikes to potentially make an impact in the starting rotation.
12) Zach Cole – OF, 25 YO
2025 MLB Stats: .255 AVG | .327 OBP | .553 SLG | 4 HR | 3 SBs | 38.5% K% | 9.6% BB%
2025 MiLB Stats (AA/AAA): .279 AVG | .377 OBP | .539 SLG | 19 HR | 18 SBs | 35.1% K% | 12.5% BB%
Defining Cole’s MiLB career as streaky might be putting it lightly. In 2022, he hit .200/.328/.304, then bounced back in 2023 with an impressive .258/.380/.489. Carrying that momentum, he struggled in 2024, hitting .218/.308/.419, showcasing impressive power, but a limited hit tool, only to bounce back again this season with an impressive stat line. If the trends tell us anything, Cole might be in for a regression in 2026, but only because he apparently prefers to play in odd-numbered years. The tools are tantalizing. There is a ton of swing and miss to his game, but when he makes contact, it is loud, and he adds an impressive speed component to his game. The 38.5% strikeout rate during his MLB debut is not sustainable for success, but Cole has the type of ceiling to make a large impact if it clicks.
13) AJ Blubaugh – RHP, 25 YO
2025 MLB Stats: 32 IP | 1.69 ERA | 28.2% K% | 8.9% BB%
2025 MiLB Stats (AAA): 99 IP | 5.27 ERA | 22.3% K% | 12.8% BB%
Blubaugh made his debut last season and was dominant. This success came off a AAA season, where he largely struggled. It is not uncommon for pitchers to struggle in the PCL, especially if they rely on soft contact. Blubaugh features an arsenal that has 5 average to slightly above average pitches to keep hitters off balance. If he doesn’t stick as a starter, the bullpen will be an option, where he saw some success last season.
14) Alonzo Tredwell – RHP, 23 YO
2025 MiLB (A/A+/AA) Stats: 100 IP | 3.69 ERA | 28.6% K% | 10.5% BB%
Tredwell is one of the more exciting pitchers in the farm system. Standing at 6 feet 8, he does it in an unconventional way compared to the other starters in the Astros system. Yes, his fastball does have carry, but it comes from a high release, not a low release. He combines that fastball with a curveball and slider that both have shown flashes at times. Health and consistency will be the biggest obstacles between Tredwell and becoming a potential rotation piece in the near future.
15) Luis Baez – OF, 22 YO
2025 MiLB Stats (Rk/AA): .248 AVG | .312 OBP | .343 SLG | 2 HR | 7 SBs | 26.5% K% | 8.2% BB%
After 3 impressive MiLB seasons, Baez was one of the more exciting prospects in the Astros system. He flashed his potential in 2024 when he hit 21 home runs across multiple levels, while also showing a solid enough hit tool. This season, the power regressed and made the profile less enticing. Still at 22 YO, the 2025 season could just be a blip on his developmental trajectory, but it came against higher-level competition. This season will be big to see if Baez can regain the excitement many had for him after the 2024 season.
The Next Five
Although these prospects do not crack the Top 15, dynasty managers should keep their eyes on these five players.
Cole Hertzler – 22 YO RHP with 4 average pitches and average command, just limited by injuries
Anthony Milan – 17 YO OF Prospect with above average tools across the board
Jackson Nezuh – 23 YO RHP with above average fastball and a plus CH
Jase Mitchell – 19 YO Catcher with above average power
Alimber Santa – 22 YO RHP with elite swing and miss stuff, but lacking control. Reliever Risk
