In 2024, the AL Central was one of the most exciting divisions in baseball, boasting three playoff teams, all of which ranked among the best in team ERA in the MLB.
The Tigers, Guardians, and Royals all had elite arms on their staff; Tarik Skubal won the AL Triple Crown, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith led one of the greatest bullpens in baseball history for the Guardians, and Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans topped a dominant Royals playoff rotation.
The AL Central projects to be competitive in 2025, although a bounce-back from some starters could make a big difference.
Starters such as Casey Mize, Gavin Williams, and Kyle Wright could be the difference-maker each of these playoff teams needs to seize the top spot in the division, or at least widen the gap between any of these teams and the lowly Chicago White Sox (sorry, White Sox fans. At least Noah Schultz looks cool.)
Casey Mize had a solid 2024 season, tossing 20 starts in 22 appearances with a 4.49 ERA/3.95 FIP. The former first-overall draft pick missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery and back surgery. Mize enters 2025 in a weird spot. While his 2024 season was decent, he has some key holes in his game that should improve before being guaranteed a place in the Tigers’ rotation.
First is Mize’s two-strike approach – he ran a below-average 17.3% strikeout rate and 26.6 CSW%, while nearly allowing more baserunners in two-strike counts (73) than strikeouts (78). While his arsenal is headlined by a much-improved fastball and a high-grading slider, neither pitch got the results Mize needed. His four-seam permitted a .361 BABIP in 2024 with a 92.5 mph average EV, while his slider generated just a 9.5% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% O-Swing rate, preventing it from being the same whiff pitch it was in 2021.
To take a significant step forward, Mize needs to improve his arsenal. His four-seam is solid, and the vast improvement to its velocity and shape proves Mize is still a very talented arm. One suggestion could be to shake up his slider; thrown with gyro spin, his slider is quite slow (85.7 mph on average) and could benefit from some added velocity. Adding a sweeper could be a big help as well. Along with his slider improvements, Mize finding more consistency in his splitter, improving command of his curveball, and increasing usage of his sneaky-good two-seam could be the arsenal adjustments needed to find a permanent spot in the Tigers’ rotation.
Gavin Williams took a step back in his sophomore season, starting 16 games with a 4.86 ERA/3.67 FIP in 76 innings after missing the first few months of the season recovering from an elbow injury. With the Guardians’ rotation depth thin, Williams is a key player for their return to the playoffs in 2025. Health-abiding, Williams is just as capable as anyone to be the piece they need.
Even with an ugly 4.86 ERA in 2024, Williams improved upon many facets of his 2023 rookie campaign, where he posted a 3.29 ERA in 16 starts. His walk rate dropped (10.7% to 9.6%) and stuff quality improved (4.92 PLV to 5.16), while his velocity improved across the board. This is not to say Williams had a great season. His fastball underperformed, changeup was abysmal and command was shaky at times, leading Williams to just three quality starts in his 16 total. Injuries were certainly a contributing factor, which is why Williams shouldn’t need as many changes as most entering 2025.
Williams also dropped his arm angle slightly while maintaining elite extension, likely helping his health while not significantly impacting his pitch shapes. His cutter and slider were elite offerings, and some more adjustments to make his fastball a bit more threatening could give him multiple well-above-average options.
Williams reminds me of Garrett Crochet – high-extension arms with multiple well-above-average to elite offerings. While Williams does not spin the ball like Crochet or have five to six offerings that grade out as well as Crochet’s, a healthy offseason at just 25 could see Williams take another step forward, just like he (partially) did in 2024 despite entering the season injured.
Kyle Wright missed the entirety of 2024 after making just nine appearances in 2023, where he had an ERA north of six, and underwent shoulder surgery that would lead him to miss the next season.
In 2022, his last full season, Wright led the MLB in wins with 21 and posted a 3.19 ERA/3.69 FIP for the Braves. After getting traded one-for-one from the Braves to the Royals for Jackson Kowar, Wright faces steep competition in the Royals rotation and is likely to begin his 2024 season in either the minor leagues or pitching out of the bullpen.
Wright is somewhat of a wild card entering 2024. Outside of his elite 2022 season, we’ve barely seen him pitch publicly, and shoulder surgery is known to affect pitcher performance historically. Wright is also “limited” to begin spring training, as he is still not fully recovered from his shoulder injury. Regardless, Wright deserves another look and could be a serious weapon in the Royals’ rotation or bullpen if healthy.
Wright was a unique arm in 2022, throwing his curveball most frequently alongside a decent sinker, awful four-seam, and solid changeups and sliders. Wright induced ground balls, limited walks, and generated a solid 30.7% CSW%. Unfortunately, a common after-effect of shoulder surgery is a reduction in strikeouts – as Wright was fairly average at inducing strikeouts, he will have to rely on inducing ideal contact to get good results.
I don’t think this will be too significant a problem for Wright. The former first-round draft pick’s profile fits in well with other Royals arms, and veteran starters such as Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have endured and overcome shoulder injuries in the past.
This is all to say Wright has the tools necessary to bounce back from this shoulder surgery as well as he could. While I wouldn’t invest in Wright throwing a full season in 2025, he is still just 29 and could carve out a nice spot in the Royals’ pitching staff as a starter or reliever down the stretch in 2025.