The NL Central was quite mediocre record-wise in 2024, boasting just one playoff team in the Milwaukee Brewers despite the fifth-place Pirates having a solid 76-86 season, which was the best record among all fifth-place teams in MLB.
As a whole, pitching was about average within the division, with ROTY-winning Paul Skenes and first-year star Shota Imanaga being standouts. Still, a few pitchers such as David Bednar, Miles Mikolas, and Nick Lodolo regressed after recently being valuable arms on their respective teams. Because of this, it’s worth looking into what went wrong and how they can either return to past success or take a new step forward in 2025.
David Bednar
David Bednar broke out as an elite reliever for Pittsburgh in 2021, gradually working into higher leverage until earning the closer spot full-time in 2023, where Bednar posted a 2.00 ERA/2.53 FIP with 66 appearances/39 saves. In 2024, Bednar took a severe step back, posting a near-6.00 ERA and spending time on the IL with an oblique injury.
In 2025, Bednar is looking to bounce back in a big way, projecting confidence for what looks to be a shaky Pirates bullpen. Of course, this is still easier said than done.
A quick look at Bednar’s stuff shows that wasn’t the issue – while his command wasn’t as sharp as in the past (career-worst 10.6 BB%), his velocity and movement were consistent with the past few seasons. Bednar’s four-seam even averaged a career-high 97.2 mph, and his splitter’s 110 Stuff+ was also a career-high.
So what was the problem? Sure, some of it could be reliever volatility, as Bednar’s 4.84 xERA/4.95 xFIP are slightly less egregious than his actual results, and his 12.2 HR/FB% and 62.2 LOB% are pretty unlucky. But this doesn’t explain his career-worst 28.7 CSW% or his awful 11.5 K-BB%, which needs to improve for Bednar to return to form.
I believe the root of his problems was command, as indicated by his raised 10.6 BB%. After suffering a minor lat injury during his 2024 spring training, Bednar was walking more batters and throwing in-zone differently than in the past.
Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas had a poor 2024 season, posting a 5.35 ERA/4.24 FIP over 32 starts for the Cardinals. While 2023 was another down season for Mikolas, he is now just two seasons removed from an elite 2022 season where he posted a 3.29 ERA/3.87 FIP over 202.1 innings of work.
Now 36, it’s easy to just write off Mikolas as an aging veteran whose best days are behind him, although I don’t believe this is the case just yet. As 2025 is the final year of his 2 year, $40 million extension with the Cardinals, Mikolas has an important season in 2025 to prove his value lies beyond the impressive durability of the past few seasons.
As Mikolas was never one to induce many whiffs, his unique skillset has relied on limiting walks and hard contact, which he largely continued to do in 2024 – his 3.5 BB% was close to MLB’s best, and 88.8 mph average exit velocity was exactly average. Outside of this, Mikolas ran a career-worst .311 BABIP, 14.4 HR/FB%, and 62.9 LOB% – these all would indicate some positive regression.
Otherwise, Mikolas’s stuff was largely in line with the past – his 92 Stuff+ was actually a career-best, and his command showed no sign of slowing down.
The biggest takeaway from this should be that Mikolas’s approach is extremely volatile. While the Cardinals’ defense was solid last year, balls in play will always be unpredictable, which was reflected by Mikolas’s relatively unchanged FIP from 2023 to 2024 despite an ERA nearly a run apart.
In addition, Mikolas’s health is a major factor in his value as well. Not many starters can throw 32 starts a year, and Mikolas made 35 in 2023. If Mikolas is even a league-average starter in 2025, his volume will make his contributions all the more valuable.
Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo had a solid 2024 season, tossing 21 starts with a 4.76 ERA/3.95 FIP while missing some time throughout the season with a few injuries. Lodolo’s progression has been spotty following his impressive 2022 debut season, where he had a 3.66 ERA/3.90 FIP in 19 starts, and has been dealing with injuries since.
Now healthy, Lodolo enters 2025 boasting impressive stuff, solid command, and an overall skillset of a starter capable of being an above-average arm over a full season. Still, Lodolo took some steps back in 2024 that should improve for him to take the next step in his development.
Lodolo had no glaring flaws in his game in 2024, although he took some steps back in strikeouts (24.7 K%, down from 28.3) and walks (7.5 BB%, up from 6.0). In addition, his extension has continued to fall from 6.5 feet in 2022 to 6.2 in 2024.
Overall, I have a few takeaways for Lodolo’s 2025 season. One is that Lodolo didn’t really show a significant weakness in his game in 2024 – while you would like to see strikeouts go back up, they are at a manageable level at the moment.
Another is that Lodolo pitches at Great American Ball Park, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. This park favors home runs more than any other stadium in baseball, and while they haven’t been a significant issue yet, it’s almost inevitable for a Reds starter to battle with them in their career.
Lodolo’s skillset does counter this almost perfectly and leaves him as well-positioned as anyone on the Reds to pitch well regardless of their ballpark in the future. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on how Lodolo handles this in the future, and if he will continue harnessing strikeouts and ground balls at an effective level.