The term sleeper gets thrown around a lot in the fantasy sports world. What a sleeper truly is is a player that you believe has a higher value than the market does. When things line up right, a sleeper is someone you value highly that you can get at a lower ADP. With that, here are five outfield sleepers for 2023.
Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler O’Neill was limited to just 96 games in 2022 thanks to a number of injuries. He ended the season with a hamstring injury but battled neck, wrist, and shoulder issues throughout the rest of the year. The fact that he played with so many injuries should ease concerns in regard to drops in his barrel and hard-hit rates, as well as his ISO and HR/FB rate.
Despite the problems he faced in ’22, he made actionable changes that led to improvements in BB%, K%, O-Swing%, Contact%, and SwStr%. Check out the difference between his 2021 and 2022 decision value PLV data.
2021:
2022:
These adjustments are signs that he showed more discipline last season than in 2021, and are promising trends ahead of this season. Plus, he still managed to knock in 14 homers and swipe 14 bags.
Don’t forget that in 2021, the Cardinals’ slugger mashed 34 home runs and stole 15 bases. He’ll be playing with bigger bases this season and is a 30/20/.250 candidate. Many will overlook his positive qualities for fear of injury, but let others draft with the recency bias so that you can get him at great value.
Joey Meneses, Washington Nationals
Joey Meneses burst on the scene for the Nats in 2022 with 13 HR and a .324 AVG in 240 PAs. After toiling in the minors for Atlanta, Boston, and Philadelphia since 2011, he finally earned his shot and ran with it.
Meneses was better than league average in K%, Contact%, and SwStr%, showing solid awareness and discipline at the plate. Added to that is a 9.9% barrel rate and 47.1% hard-hit rate which would have been top 20 and top 15, respectively, among outfielders had he qualified.
Although regression to his AVG is imminent (he had a .371 BABIP last season), there is no reason to expect a drop-off in power. And he possesses a good enough eye at the plate to take advantage of bad pitches and keep his AVG from falling off a cliff. He finished better than league average in strike zone judgment, decision value, and hitter performance according to our PLV data.
Here’s a shot of Meneses sending a bad pitch out of the park:
https://gfycat.com/pertinentdisgustingheron
Seth Brown’s run and RBI totals may be limited due to playing for the Athletics, but he has other skills that are great for fantasy baseball and is dual-position eligible at 1B.
He stole 11 bases last season—second only to Freddie Freeman at 1B and 17th among outfielders. He tied for 10th in home runs among outfielders and was top 20 in RBI. His 117 wRC+ was 22nd among outfielders, his xwOBA was 15 points higher than his .323 wOBA, and his .250 xBA suggests his .230 AVG could have been higher with some better luck.
Some things to note that make Brown an interesting sleeper for 2023 include improvements to his BB% and K% from the previous year. Also important is that his judgment of the strike zone improved as the season went on.
He was seventh among all outfielders with a 13% barrel rate, repeating a strong 13.9% rate from 2021, and topped the barrel rates of players like Taylor Ward and Juan Soto. His 40.8% hard-hit rate was top 25 among outfielders and 1.1% lower than that of Kyle Tucker and George Springer. Brown clearly possesses the ability to hit for power.
Brown swung and missed more in 2022 than the previous season, but also made more contact on pitches outside of the zone, inside of the zone, and overall than in 2021. These positive trends could continue into 2023, making him a 20/15/.240 candidate if things go well for him.
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs
Had Christopher Morel qualified last season, he would have finished with the second worst strikeout rate in the league at 32.2%, tied Nick Castellanos for the eighth worst O-Contact%, and would have been league-worst in Z-Contact% and overall Contact%. Yet, despite the contact issues, he finished 2022 with a .235 AVG.
That is the bad news – the good news is that Morel possesses a sneaky power/speed combo that could make him a viable fantasy outfielder in 2023, especially if he makes improvements to his discipline in his sophomore season.
The Cubs’ outfielder hit 16 home runs to go along with 10 steals in 425 PAs. The power looks legit, as he had a 13.4% barrel rate—the same rate as Max Muncy, and just .2% shy of Matt Olson. Our PLV power metric likes Morel:
The new bases and limitations on pickoffs should help Morel add to his steals total and best the projections that have him picking up 10-12 stolen bases this season.
With improvements to the Cubs’ offense and all the offseason rules changes, Morel should be on your radar as a sleeper for your drafts.
Jake Fraley is a tough player to evaluate because he has missed time with injuries, but combining his 2021 and 2022 seasons can shed some light on who he is as a batter.
Between the two seasons, he has accumulated 512 PAs, 21 HR, 60 R, 64 RBI, and 14 SB, along with a .235 AVG. The move to Cincinnati seems to have boosted his power slightly – he finished with more homers in fewer PAs in 2022 than 2021. This is no surprise with Great American Ballpark finishing second in overall park factors from 2020-2022, and first for lefty batters.
If Fraley can put a full season together, he could outproduce the projections that have him hitting between 16-18 homers and picking up 9-12 steals with an AVG ranging from .234-.250.
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