The past few off-seasons I have written multiple articles exploring batted ball data and how dynasty managers can use that to help project the long-term value of prospects. Each off-season my goal is to dive in deeper. Explore more connections and predictors to aid prospect valuation. The goal of this article is not to say that any particular prospect is doomed because they hit a lot of ground balls. The goal is to simply point out that high ground ball hitters tend to struggle at the Major League level. This season, we look at how that is especially true for those with lower HR/FB rates.
Recapping and Expanding the Data
A few years ago, I did a deep dive on how batted-ball distributions impact a player’s expected production. Hitters were broken up into two groups. The first group was “ideal swing path players”. These were players who had a ground ball rate below 45% and a line drive rate north of 22%. The second group was the “not ideal swing path players”. This group was comprised of players with a ground ball rate north of 50%. Looking at each player’s wRC+ and performing statistical analysis, it was determined that the two groups did produce different wRC+ at a statistically significant level.
Over the past two years, this article has applied this study to dynasty. The goal was never to say that a player with a not-ideal swing path is incapable of making adjustments to unlock a new level of production (see Caminero, Junior). However, the goal was to point out that prospects with a ground ball rate north of 50% carry substantially more risk in being able to produce at the Major League level. The one caveat has been “there are always outliers”. This year, the goal was to remove those outliers. What is one way that a prospect with a ground ball rate north of 50% could still be a valuable Major League hitter? If on their fly balls, they hit enough home runs.
Using data from 2021-2026, hitters were once again broken up into the same two groups. The difference was that the “not ideal swing path” players were then segregated out further. The goal was to figure out at what level of home run production the “not ideal” become statistically no different than the “ideal”. Starting at a HR/FB rate of 15%, there was a clear difference between the two “not ideal” groups, but that group was actually even better than the ideal swing path (obviously more home runs equals more production). Then, I lowered it down to 10%. For hitters with non-ideal swing paths, their production was still not statistically different than the ideal swing path players. However, at 9% we started to notice a difference. Hitters with a non-ideal swing path, but an HR/FB rate of 9% or greater, were still statistically below the wRC+ of hitters with an ideal swing path. There was our answer. To identify the truly troubling swing-path prospects, we needed to look at players with a ground ball rate north of 50% and an HR/FB% less than 10%.
Note: HR/FB was chosen as a reliable metric because it is a statistically significant stat. Years ago, James Anderson did some research looking into how Minor League HR/FB rates are very sticky and predictive of Major League HR/FB rates. That is the basis for many of my dynasty articles relying so heavily on that stat (Thanks, James!).
Prospects with Concerning Swing Paths
Josh Hammond – KCR
Josh Hammond is a unique inclusion. Hammond is coming off of a very strong professional debut season. He hit .288 in his first professional season and is already showing off one of the higher floors amongst third base prospects. For those following along with the prospect projection article series, Hammond scored relatively highly compared to other third basemen. The explanation was that Hammond has an extremely polished approach that should result in high on-base percentage numbers and a strong number of stolen bases. These are all things that the model likes. This data approach tells a different story. That is a fun (and dangerous) piece to statistics, models, and analysis. Sometimes, you can look at the same overall set of data, run different statistical tests, and come to two very different conclusions. Including Hammond here felt essential to painting the full picture.
The prospect projection model really loves Hammond’s hit tool. His contact skills and all-fields approach are undeniable. However, ground ball hitters tend to fare much better in the Minor Leagues. Better defensive players and more analytical defensive alignments in the Major Leagues reduce the probability of ground balls resulting in hits. Last season, Hammond posted a ground ball rate of 50.1%. This is just above the threshold required to fall into this concerning batted ball distribution group. Despite the high ground ball rate, Hammond still posted a .353 BABIP. If you were to translate his Minor League ground ball rate to the Major Leagues, his BABIP would surely fall.
If it were just a ground ball rate slightly above 50%, there would not be any substantial concerns. However, Hammond’s lack of power puts a lot of pressure on his hit tool to live up to expectations. Hammond hit only five home runs last year with a .389 slugging percentage. Hammond does not prioritize driving the ball, and his 27.7% fly ball rate is well below the league average. Hitting for a high batting average is essential to Hammond’s long-term dynasty value. His current batted ball distribution adds risk to this. Odds are that as Hammond grows more comfortable at the professional level, his ground ball rate will decrease further. Dynasty managers should not write off Hammond as a prospect, but should keep an eye on how his ground ball rate looks in 2027.
Nelson Rada – LAA
Nelson Rada’s dynasty value has fluctuated over the past two seasons. At times, his stolen base totals and contact skills have vaulted him up ranking lists. Rada is rostered in almost all dynasty leagues and is now just one step away from the Major Leagues. However, dynasty managers rostering Rada are likely to be disappointed by his ultimate production. Unlike Hammond, 2026 was not Rada’s first season. He has been part of the Angels organization since 2022. In every season, Rada’s ground ball rate has been at least 54.9%. His fly ball rate has been consistently below 20%. Rada’s three home runs from last season actually mark a career-high. Dynasty managers should have no expectation of any contributions from Rada in the home run department.
That all makes sense. The argument for Rada is that power has never been part of the projection. Rada is going to generate dynasty value through his on-base skills and speed. A la, the Chandler Simpson method. That sounds great in theory. Rada is a plus runner and with regular playing time, he should produce 25+ stolen bases. However, he is not an elite runner. To overcome extreme ground ball rates, Rada needs to be a blazing fast runner. Simpson is 1 of 1. Fast runners with ground ball issues come around rather frequently. Look at Justin Crawford (who by all accounts is faster than Rada). Crawford saw his BABIP drop from .407 in the Minor Leagues down to .317 in the Major Leagues. Rada’s BABIP is going to decrease at the Major League level unless he hits fewer ground balls.
The argument here is that even though Chandler Simpson hit .306, he still posted a 93 wRC+. While Rada may hit a couple of more home runs, it is unlikely that he ever lands as an above-average hitter with his current batted ball distribution. A bet on Rada is a bet on a below-average offensive contributor producing reliable dynasty value. This is not a bet with high odds of hitting. Rada will need to hit fewer ground balls to turn into a reliable dynasty asset.
Roldy Brito – COL
Roldy Brito has the making of a potential star. The twitchy-athletic Brito has put together back-to-back excellent seasons in the Rockies’ system. At just 19 years old, Brito hit .305 with 10 homers and 41 stolen bases. He is a strong runner with good bat speed, who many prospect rankers predict could be a breakout pick for 2027. This analysis points out some red flags with that projection. Brito hits a ton of ground balls. His ground ball rate sits up at 53.2%. Despite the high ground ball rate, Brito still posted a BABIP up at .370. This is unsustainable. Brito has also hit for underwhelming power when he gets the ball in the air. His 9.6 HR/FB% is below league-average. With elevated risk to his hit tool and concerns over his long-term power output, Brito’s breakout prediction needs more evaluation.
When you watch Brito play, the athleticism jumps off the screen. However, his athleticism can also get him in trouble at the plate. For different hitters, a high ground ball rate can mean different things. For some, their entire focus is putting the ball in play. Spraying the ball around the field and relying on strong speed to beat out throws. Brito is a plus runner, but does not fit this category unlike Nelson Rada above him. For others like Brito, a high ground ball rate is a result of over-aggression. Brito is a free swinger with poor pitch recognition. He chases frequently and makes contact on “pitcher’s pitches”. This results in a lot of weak contact and a lot of ground balls rolled over on.
An approach issue is a concern in and of itself. However, this is very different than just a batted ball distribution issue. For Brito, the issue does not appear to be that he wants to hit groundballs at a high rate. The issue is that his pitch selection needs refinement. At just 19 years old, he has plenty of time to work through this development. Encouragingly, Brito’s HR/FB rate was the highest of his career. When you watch the film, it is easy to see how Brito develops more power.
This section on Brito flip flops a bit, so let’s clear it up here. Brito’s batted ball distribution is concerning. He undoubtedly needs to hit fewer ground balls. This is going to be accomplished by swinging at better (and fewer) pitches. At the same time, Brito has the raw tools to turn into a dynasty-relevant prospect. A 2027 breakout prediction even makes sense when you consider his upside. However, there are also some major red flags that will need fixing before the breakout occurs.
Underrated Prospects with Ideal Swing Paths
Aaron Walton– CLE
The Guardians took Aaron Walton 66th overall in the 2025 draft. In his first professional season, Walton hit .269 with 22 home runs and 33 stolen bases split between High-A and Double-A. Despite a 133 wRC+, Walton is rarely mentioned amongst the game’s top prospects. Looking under the hood, that needs to change.
For starters, Walton stands at 6’4″ and 218 pounds. Despite his size, he is a plus runner with strong projectability. He is a plus defender and could even stick in center field if needed (although right field is more likely). With his defense not a liability, we can focus on his offensive production. Walton’s size gives him obvious strength, but it is so much more than that. Walton has a natural feel for getting to his pull side. While his raw power can drive the ball out to all fields, he is especially adept at driving balls out to his pull side. His pull air rate of 28% ranked in the 93rd percentile last season. His HR/FB rate is well above the league average. 20 home runs feels like a floor projection when evaluating Walton’s long-term outlook.
Beyond his power and already mentioned speed, Walton’s batted ball distribution adds a level of safety to his hit tool’s projection. Walton can be overly patient at times with swing-and-miss in his profile. He has a huge leg kick, but he also has a consistent swing designed to produce line drives. He posted a line drive rate of 22% last season. His line drive rate and plus speed make his high BABIPs sustainable. Even if Walton struggles with some strikeouts, the combination of power, speed, and high BABIPs should produce a fantasy-friendly profile. Walton is a very underrated prospect who deserves more attention.
Alex Lodise – ATL
Similarly to Walton, Alex Lodise has some concerns when it comes to his hit tool. Lodise is aggressive at the dish with evident swing-and-miss. He is fooled by well-located breaking pitches and could struggle against more advanced pitching. The hit tool concerns are real and are keeping Lodise off many top prospect lists. However, his batted ball distribution is excellent. Lodise posted a line drive rate of 23.1% last season. He sprays these line drives all over the field, which makes his .313 BABIP very sustainable. Lodise’s ideal swing path makes him an underrated prospect to watch.
Lodise’s appeal goes beyond just his batted ball distribution. Lodise also has plus power and is a strong runner on the bases. Lodise is not the biggest player, but he has all-field power. His swing and his body sync up nicely. He has great barrel control and is a clear threat for 20+ home runs. He hit 28 last season across three different levels. Look for his game power to continue improving as he learns to tap into his pull side more. Add in 15-20 stolen bases, and dynasty managers have a very fantasy-friendly profile to project on. Lodise is not a perfect prospect, but is one who deserves more attention.
Dylan Dreiling– TEX
Another high draft pick (65th overall in 2024), Dylan Dreiling is a prospect that the dynasty community does not seem overly enthusiastic about. Looking at his production, it is difficult to understand why. Dreiling struggled in his first season of professional ball. He hit .226 with 12 homers and 15 stolen bases. However, a lot of that his struggles had to do with a .267 BABIP. Dreiling is an at-least average runner with elite line drive rates. A below-average BABIP only points to him being unlucky.
That luck changed in 2026. Dreiling’s BABIP rose from .267 up to .361. This BABIP increase is directly correlated to four factors: Dreiling’s plus speed, continually strong line drive rate, all-field approach, and increased impact on the ball. On top of all of that, Dreiling maintained a contact rate north of 80%, while becoming more selectively aggressive at the plate.
Dreiling’s increased aggression was not the sole difference maker. However, it was a combination of his great pitch recognition and increased willingness to swing that helped him produce a career-high 22 home runs. He took his HR/FB rate from below-average to above-average. With an elite batted-ball distribution, elite contact skills, and strong plate discipline, Dreiling should continue to find more success in 2027. Do not be surprised if Dreiling makes his Major League debut at some point next season.
