The off-season is a perfect time to dive into article ideas that the regular season simply lacks the time for. Each year, I attempt to refine my prospect ranking process. My goal is always to keep followers up to date on the latest trends and prospects that they need to roster in dynasty leagues. For those who consistently follow along, thank you.
Admittedly, the current process is not perfect. That is where this article comes into play. Bias undoubtedly plays a part in my current prospect rankings. What is one good way to reduce bias? Data and numbers. So, I am taking the top 20 at each position (with some help from Martin Sekulski) and comparing their end-of-season prospect-list ranking to where they would rank in terms of projections to identify any prospects that are currently misrepresented in terms of rankings.
The Math
Each of the top-20 prospects at each position was taken and put into a spreadsheet. From there, each prospect was given a ceiling and floor projection. These projections are not data-driven, but personal scouting beliefs. The categories factoring into the model were home runs, stolen bases, batting average, strikeouts, and walks. From there, a “confidence level” was assigned to each prospect. This confidence level indicates the confidence I have in a prospect reaching their ceiling. For example, if a prospect has an 80% confidence level, then their expected projection is calculated as 80% of their ceiling and 20% of their floor.
From there, I worked with AI to build a scoring model that accounts for both positional value and a prospect’s ceiling, weighting the ceiling a bit more heavily. Positional value was factored in by utilizing FanGraphs Auction Calculator from the 2026 season. The model looks at the “elite producers” for home runs, stolen bases, and batting average at each position, the “average producers,” and the “replacement level” producers with the assumption of a standard 12-team fantasy league. To create a position benchmark blend, the model pulls 80% of the “elite producers”, 10% of the “average producers,” and 10% of the “replacement level” producers. From there, the model spits out a score for each prospect in each category based on their expected projection. The model takes 90% of a prospect’s expected projection, but also 10% of the prospect’s ceiling projection to account for upside.
The final result is a score assigned to each prospect. The goal is that throughout a prospect’s development curve, their ceiling or floor could be easily adjusted to better reflect their long-term projection. Their confidence level can also be adjusted as they develop. This article will dive into a little bit of each prospect’s projection and then compare the rankings in terms of score versus the end-of-season prospect list.
The Prospects
Leo De Vries – ATH
Expected Projection: .281 | 19 HR | 26.3 SB | 19.8% K% | 10.0% BB%
Score: 80.9
Leo De Vries is an excellent prospect. His 80.9 final score indicates this. He is an excellent athlete and a plus base runner. He controls the strike zone well and projects as an above-average pure hitter. There is very little risk in those areas of his game. The biggest uncertainty comes from his home run output. De Vries posted the highest home-run-per-fly-ball rate of his career in 2026, but that was still just league average. In September, he was forced to undergo shoulder surgery. This only adds more risk. Even with questionable power, De Vries should still be considered an elite dynasty asset. The model confirms that stance.
Sebastian Walcott – TEX
Expected Projection: .246 | 28.1 HR | 23.5 SB | 25.4% K% | 9.5% BB%
Score: 73.7
Sebastian Walcott’s tools are incredibly loud. Seeing Walcott come back healthy and find success was a major driver behind a high 60% confidence score. There have never been any questions about Walcott’s upside. He has elite raw power and is a plus runner who could turn into a 30/30 dynasty asset. There are concerns with his hit tool. Walcott never projects to hit for elite batting averages. However, his high score, even with a mediocre batting average, proves that he does not have to be a valuable contributor to dynasty teams.
Jefferson Rojas – NYM
Expected Projection: .244 | 22.6 HR | 20.0 SB | 25.1% K% | 6.1% BB%
Score: 52.1
Finally! After ranking highly on the Prospect List for a long time, Jefferson Rojas unlocked his game power in 2026. The athletic infielder has a simple and free swing that gets unlocked by his ability to pull the ball. At his ceiling, Rojas is close to a 30-homer bat with enough speed to surpass 20 steals. The questions come from his hit tool. Rojas has a tendency to get fooled by good breaking pitches and expands the zone too often. His confidence score sits at 55%, but despite that, he still projects as a 20/20 asset for dynasty managers.
Caleb Bonemer – CWS
Expected Projection: .233 | 28.0 HR | 13.5 SB | 26.5% K% | 9.5% BB%
Score: 52.2
Caleb Bonemer is coming off a fantastic season where he crushed 37 home runs. His expected home run total of 28 homers is the highest amongst all third basemen. Entering 2026, the concern was with Bonemer’s hit tool. Not only was there a good amount of swing-and-miss, but his extreme pull-fly ball tendencies lowered the floor of his batting average. That risk is still there, but the confidence in Bonemer reaching his ceiling has increased substantially. Bonemer ranks as the third-best third baseman according to this model. This is more in line with major prospect ranking publications.
Xavier Neyens – HOU
Expected Projection: .228 | 24.4 HR | 11.2 SB | 31.4% K% | 12.0% BB%
Score: 37.5
Xavier Neyens came in with one of the most volatile projections of any third baseman. His ceiling home run projection came in second (trailing only Caleb Bonemer). He did steal 19 bases last season, but it is difficult to project that speed and aggression on the bases continuing as he fills out his 6’3″ frame. Neyens’ contact rate also plummeted to 60.8% following his promotion to High-A. His big swing comes with plenty of concerns and a lack of confidence. His 37.5 final score points to the risk and suggests he should rank much lower entering 2027.
Josh Hammond – KCR
Expected Projection: .275 | 10 HR | 21.0 SB | 20.5% K% | 8.5% BB%
Score: 48.8
Considering Hammond was a prep infielder drafted in 2025, he already has one of the safer projections amongst all third basemen. Hammond is going to hit for average and steal bases. Those are all but guarantees. His simple right-handed swing produces a ton of line drives to all fields. The question mark is in terms of power. Hammond’s approach does not prioritize pulling the ball, and he hits plenty of ground balls. There is projection in his 6’1″ frame, but right now there is plenty of volatility in his home run projection. Even without the home runs, Hammond still projects as a strong dynasty asset.
Ace Reese – SEA
Expected Projection: .255 | 21.5 HR | 2.0 SB | 22.0% K% | 10.0% BB%
Score: 39.7
A 2026 draftee out of Mississippi State, Reese lacks the volatility of most recent draftees. The profile is fairly simple. The hit tool is solid, but not great. He is likely to land around .250 long-term. He does not run much and does not project to be a threat to steal more than a couple of bases. Meanwhile, the power is a plus tool and should translate to somewhere between 15 and 25 home runs. He lacks much upside, but is a solid prospect with a relatively high floor.
Albert Fermin – HOU
Expected Projection: .246 | 16.9 HR | 17.4 SB | 24.1% K% | 9.9% BB%
Score: 44.5
Albert Fermin has the third-highest ceiling projection among third-base prospects. At his peak projection, it is easy to see Fermin eclipsing both 25 home runs and 30 stolen bases. However, Fermin is just 17 years old with only 49 DSL games under his belt. His confidence level sits at just 30% until he proves he can find success in full-season ball. For now, he remains a toolsy prospect with substantial upside.
Murf Gray – PIT
Expected Projection: .253 | 25.0 HR | 3.5 SB | 24.5% K% | 8.5% BB%
Score: 44.2
Murf Gray is another third base prospect with limited projection. Gray is going to hit for power. He hit 32 home runs in his first professional season with elite HR/FB numbers at every level he played. He has a great feel for getting to his pull side with the ability to elevate the ball consistently. Power is not a question. Neither is his speed, but in the opposite sense. Gray is not going to run much, and stolen bases do not project to be a large part of his game. The biggest disparity in projection comes from his batting average. Gray’s contact rates remained high throughout his multiple promotions, but there is some swing-and-miss against well-placed breaking balls. His high line drive rate creates a bit more stability here than other prospects. Gray projects as a relatively safe third base prospect compared to some others on this list.
Chase Harlan – LAD
Expected Projection: .252 | 20.0 HR | 1.2 SB | 26.0% K% | 9.2% BB%
Score: 28.8
Chase Harlan is a prospect who rose quickly up the Prospect List throughout the 2026 season. The model did not agree with that vault up. There are a couple of key factors pushing Harlan’s final score down. The first is a lack of stolen bases. Harlan’s lack of upside here puts more pressure on his other tools to excel. The second is some variability in his hit tool. Harlan’s new patient approach in 2026 was working in Low-A, but he struggled once he got to High-A. He looked overmatched against better pitching, and his strikeout and ground ball rate rose significantly. Harlan’s pitch recognition and hit tool are still a work in progress. Without a solid foundation in that category, he finishes with an underwhelming score of 28.8.
Jake Munroe – LAA
Expected Projection: .255 | 19.0 HR | 6.5 SB | 22.0% K% | 8.5% BB%
Score: 39.0
A breakout 2026 season has officially put Jake Munroe on dynasty radars. The raw power is not game-changing (as evidenced by his pedestrian HR/FB rate), but a new swing and great feel for getting to his pull side puts his expected projection right around 20 home runs. Munroe is another one of these third basemen who should produce solid, albeit not spectacular numbers.
Jacob Reimer – NYM
Expected Projection: .243 | 18.1 HR | 7.7 SB | 24.7% K% | 9.4% BB%
Score: 29.7
Reimer’s extremely patient approach at the plate produces volatility in his on-base skills. The line drive rates are strong, which provides some stability, but deep counts and swing-and-miss can lead to high strikeout rates. Reimer is not a “zero” on the base paths, but his speed is never going to produce substantial fantasy value. The key is unlocking more consistent power. He hit 17 home runs in 2025 and 10 in 2026. His feel for getting to his pull side is a plus attribute, but he will need to carry his profile to fantasy relevance.
Santiago Solarte – MIA
Expected Projection: .211 | 18.8 HR | 21.3 SB | 32.5% K% | 6.5% BB%
Score: 23.3
The ceiling projection for Santiago Solarte is enormous. Thirty homers and 40 steals are well within reach. However, the floor is just as low. Solarte has the loudest tools from this year’s enticing DSL pool. He stands at 6’5″, is a great athlete, and plays a premium position. However, he also posted an alarming 63.5% contact rate against DSL pitching. The confidence score for Solarte is still extremely low, and his expected projection has a strikeout rate north of 30% at this point. As pointed out in the shortstop version of this article, the assumption the model makes is that each player receives full playing time, even at their floor. If Solarte is batting .200 with a 35% strikeout rate, he will not be an everyday major leaguer. His ranking entering this exercise more heavily factors in the ceiling Solarte possesses. If you are going to roster a prospect with the tools and upside that Solarte has, you have to get in early. The model is a bit more hesitant to push all of its chips in on Solarte just yet.
Bo Lowrance – LAD
Expected Projection: .235 | 14.5 HR | 13.0 SB | 25.3% K% | 7.0% BB%
Score: 25.0
Right now, Bo Lowrance’s projection is entirely that, projection. A high school draftee from 2026, Lowrance did not see any professional game action in his draft year. How his tools will translate to the pros is a complete unknown. At 6’5″, Lowrance has the physical projection to hit for power. With a big left-handed swing, scouts have been more confident in the translation of his hit tool than game power. How does his speed change as he adds muscle? Can he adjust to hit for more game power? Right now, his expected projection reflects a low confidence score with too many uncertainties. His final Prospect List ranking is more reflective of his upside and organizational trust in the Dodgers.
Wilder Dalis – COL
Expected Projection: .254 | 14.8 HR | 20.2 SB | 23.0% K% | 7.2% BB%
Score: 44.5
This is the score that caught my attention. Even with a confidence score of 40%, Dalis was still one of only five third basemen projected for 35 combined home runs and stolen bases. How Dalis’ hit tool translates to tougher competition is the biggest question. He will need to hit more fly balls to reach his home run ceiling, but there are a lot of enticing tools for dynasty managers to fall in love with in Dalis’ profile.
Juan Sánchez – TOR
Expected Projection: .211 | 11.4 HR | 5.9 SB | 28.9% K% | 5.5% BB%
Score: -10.0
Juan Sánchez was a major disappointment in 2026. Sánchez struggled to adjust to full-season ball with far too much chase and whiff in his game. His 6’3″ frame still has near-30 home run potential. That is the ceiling for dynasty managers to chase. However, the struggles this past season keep his confidence score down at 18%. This puts his expected projection much closer to his floor of a .200 hitter with eight homers and five stolen bases. For reference, his ceiling score of 43.1 would rank 16th amongst third basemen.
Cam Collier – CIN
Expected Projection: .222 | 19.2 HR | 1.1 SB | 26.9% K% | 7.1% BB%
Score: 7.2
Cam Collier seems much older than he actually is. Still just 21, Collier has failed to show any consistency throughout a professional season. His left-handed swing packs a punch. He has flashed this power on some of the biggest stages, but beyond his power, there is very little to get excited about. Collier does not run, and his hit tool has failed to develop. His approach this season shifted from ultra-patient to ultra-aggressive. He still feels like a player who is trying to figure things out at the professional level. Right now, he is a power-first prospect with a 30% confidence score.
Aroon Escobar – PHI
Expected Projection: .232 | 12.4 HR | 13.8 SB | 23.2% K% | 6.9% BB%
Score: 18.5
Aroon Escobar was a prospect on the rise during the 2025 season. His lack of success since then has put a stop to that. At his peak projection, Escobar still has the raw tools to excite dynasty managers. He has quick hands and is a strong base stealer. However, his swing gets choppy, he expands the zone frequently, and his surface stats have failed to take the next step. At this point, it is difficult to project Escobar ever reaching 20 home runs or 20 stolen bases. He projects more as a utility infielder with low confidence in exceeding that. His struggles have continued at the AFL, only adding to the concern.
Rafe Perich – TEX
Expected Projection: .246 | 16.6 HR | 5.3 SB | 22.8% K% | 8.9% BB%
Score: 27.4
A seventh-round pick back in 2024, Rafe Perich’s success last season went a bit unnoticed. The switch-hitting third baseman broke out with a career-high 27 home runs. Home runs fuel his expected projection. Perich is not going to steal much, and there are questions about how his hit tool will translate. We have also only seen one season of power from him despite being 24 years old in Double-A. There is a wide range of projection for somebody who could be considered an underrated prospect. There is upside here, but Perich is unlikely to become a difference-making dynasty asset.
Parks Harber – SFG
Expected Projection: .253 | 19.0 HR | 4.5 SB | 25.0% K% | 9.5% BB%
Score: 31.8
Parks Harber’s 31.8 final score is good enough for 12th on this list. However, his ceiling projection still only ranks 19th. The difference for Harber compared to most prospects is the confidence score. Harber scored 50% confidence due to low volatility and his proximity to the major leagues. Harber is extremely likely to hit somewhere between 15 and 25 home runs in a season. He is not going to run much but has a good understanding of the strike zone, which will help keep his on-base percentage strong. There is some swing-and-miss in his profile, but not too much to make his batting average a red flag. Harber is a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect. The model indicates he is underrated.
Comparison
The table below outlines the comparison between rankings and the score.
Similar to shortstop, there were no changes at the top. Leo De Vries and Sebastian Walcott lead the way. Walcott has more upside (he received a 74.9 ceiling score compared to De Vries’ 72.2), but De Vries has a relatively safe profile with substantial upside himself. For those who have followed my work, Caleb Bonemer’s ranking has long been a point of discussion, but he graded out as the third-best third baseman. Over the course of 2026, Bonemer became a bit less dependent on his pull everything in the air approach. This adjustment will still provide plenty of home runs but also helps to raise the floor on his batting average and improve confidence in his long-term projection. That, combined with his upside, pushes him above Jefferson Rojas.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this list is that Wilder Dalis ranks sixth. He entered this exercise ranked 15th. Watching some film on Dalis for the team prospect ranking updates, Dalis has loads of potential. Where things stand, his pitch recognition can be spotty at times, which adds risk to his hit tool. The model clearly identifies that the hit tool risk was carrying too much weight. Even with a floor average of 0.240 and a confidence of 40%, Dalis’ combination of power and speed gives him enough upside to rank much higher. He deserves more attention from the dynasty community.
The low volatility and relatively high confidence in who Parks Harber is pushed him up to 12th. This could be another potential weakness in the model. Just like it tends to underrate high-ceiling, low-confidence prospects, the model is pushing up a player like Harber who will likely hit 15-20 homers with a fine batting average, but do very little elsewhere.
The model also pointed out that the high volatility in Xavier Neyens‘ profile requires more attention. Neyens’ hit tool is very raw, and his expected projection currently has a strikeout rate north of 30%. After entering this exercise as my fifth-ranked third baseman, he will certainly slide down.
My Takeaways:
Prospects who should be ranked higher:
- Wilder Dalis and Rafe Perich
Prospects who should be ranked lower:
