Ben Pernick’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2024 in Review

In 2023, I landed a career-best three out of my 10 Bold Predictions, including a bold Isaac Paredes prediction in which I said he’d hit .250 and 30 homers, and he went on to hit .250 with 31 homers. So I had the wind in my sails entering 2024, despite being the only writer that actually continued the Bold Predictions series. I guess I didn’t get the memo… or more likely that I got it and put it under “Read Later” and then forgot about it.

Anyway, I’m perhaps burying the lede in the fact that this year, my predictions were more wrong than any of my years of Bold Predictions in years past. So I really didn’t have to write this, since I didn’t have any other Bold Predictions Writers to pressure me with their post-mortems. But I will not hide my shame! Also, I did win a few leagues this year, including my home league and my TGFBI 15-teamer, which helps alleviate the burn. But let’s see if we can learn anything.

 

1. CJ Abrams outproduces Trea Turner

Early in the year, this seemed like my most brilliant prediction. Turner got off to a mediocre start and then had an extended stint on the IL, while Abrams tore the cover off the ball in April and May. In the end, though, Abrams fell apart, even finishing the season with a demotion after a late night at the casino. Goes to show that predicting improvement based on age alone can backfire, though in this case, I do wonder if maturity issues or injury factored in due to Abrams’ surprising ineptitude on the basepaths.

Still, with a season line of .246 with 20 homers, 65 RBI, 79 R, and 31 SB (12 CS), he was hardly a bust. But Turner once again excelled with 20+ homers for the fourth straight year, with a .295 AVG to go with 21 HR, 19 SB, 62 RBI and 88 R to beat him out. But it was closer than you may have expected given the end of the season, with Turner ranking on the Razzball player rater as the #42 overall player and Abrams still finishing at #63. If Abrams even stole 10 more bases, he probably would’ve matched him, and given his prowess last year, and the fact his sprint speed hardly dropped off at all (weirdly, his time to first, which is more indicative of SB success, did drop some).

I still think this is one that could happen next year and I was just a year too early, as Turner’s declining SB output makes him a solid but not elite fantasy player, and I think that Abrams’ stolen base struggles this year was likely more mental, as the raw speed was still there and the Nationals sent Jesse Winker racking up double digits bags so clearly it’s not due to the team being conservative. But as for this year, I think it’s safe to say that this started well but took a Trea Turn for the worse.

VERDICT: MISS   0 for 1

 

2. Will Smith is not a Top 10 fantasy catcher

Well, it did look at one point in August that I’d win this one, but it turns out it’s pretty hard to find 10 good catchers. Still, if you had read this prediction in March and decided not to draft Smith at his ADP in the Top 100, you would’ve benefited. In the end, he had the worst full season of his career, hitting .248/.327/.433 with 20 HR and a career-high 105 Ks in 476 ABs… but sadly the volume alone helped rank him seventh among catchers.

Sure, it’s still a fair distance from the pre-draft rank of fourth. But my concerns that the barrel rate, which dipped in 2023, might not fully recover were wrong as his 2024 barrel rate recovered. It seems the strikeout to walk ratio did suffer a bit, but his peripherals remained quite consistent. But it’s true that he didn’t hit 500 AB, as I mentioned people weren’t factoring in the Ohtani and Teoscar taking up DH giving him fewer opportunities on rest days. This could’ve come true if some of the upstart catchers like Langeliers, Tyler Stephenson, Austin Wells and others didn’t fade down the stretch, and maybe also if David Fry didn’t get hurt. Oh well.

VERDICT: MISS   0 for 2

3. Nelson Velázquez outproduces Nick Castellanos

Well, if this were two predictions, A. that Velázquez will outperform his ADP and that B. Castellanos will underperform ADP, then I’d be 50% correct. But we both know it doesn’t work like that. Castellanos did indeed have a down year by his standards, following up a 2023 campaign in which he hit .272 with 27 HR, 11 SB, and 106 RBI with a 2024 stint in which he hit .254 with 23 HR, 6 SB, and 86 RBIs. Still, he stayed healthy and it was at least solid production, though a line some preseason projections of Nelson could’ve matched.

But like, what happened to former barrel king Nellie V? Perhaps the team saw something they didn’t like early as they didn’t want to commit to him, or maybe the nerves about his role made him press, but he faded fast after a hot start, hitting just .200 with eight HRs and two SBs in 205 AB. I had assumed it must be his strikeout rate ballooned, but really that actually improved, but the batted ball quality nosedived. I knew Velázquez’s 2023 21% Barrel% was unsustainable, but I still expected better than 9%. I still think it’s possible injury played a role, but in any case, he was a mid-round bust, and I’m glad I jumped ship early when I saw his scary peripherals. Given how far his ADP has fallen, I’d consider him a solid bounce-back candidate for draft-and-holds or AL-only.

VERDICT: MISS   0 for 3

4. Tanner Bibee is not a Top-40 starter

Well, he still didn’t feel like a Top-40 starter, at least at times. But according to the ESPN Player Rater, he clocked in as pitcher #32, though given his preseason ADP of 116, you probably would’ve been better off rolling the dice on a few of the guys ahead of him like Seth Lugo, Tanner Houck and Ronel Blanco. My biggest concern for Bibee was his lack of a good fastball and having more control than command, but he did improve on that in his second season, with an improved 26% K% and a 6% BB%. He also located his changeup and cutter on opposite sides of the plate more effectively, though he never seemed dominant.

In addition to my miss though, I severely underestimated his supporting cast of the Guardians as I had serious concerns about the depth of their offense. But a resurgence of Steven Kwan with a career year for some of their top hitters helped make up for the at-bats wasted on Brayan Rocchio, Ramon Laureano, and the like. On Nick’s Preseason Top 100, Bibee clocks in at #36, so that isn’t an out either. In any case, I wouldn’t want this to be my only correct prediction as IMO it wasn’t bold enough from the start.

VERDICT: MISS   0 for 4

5. Jake Burger hits .250 with 40 homers

If only August lasted all year, right? I did manage to get right the part where he hits .250, as he actually has managed to hit exactly .250 for three straight years. Forget Khris Davis, we can call Burger the Quarter Pounder!

But alas, he only hit 29 home runs, as his homer swing was practically nonexistent in the first half. It also probably didn’t help that the offense as a whole was considerably weaker this year, but it seems he also had a drop-off from his monstrous raw power he flashed in 2023 to something still quite strong (116 maxEV) but with fewer barrels.

Still, given the fact he’s lowered his K rate for a third straight season, I don’t think we’re giving enough credence to the idea that next year he puts the two together and has an Austin Riley-esque breakout… if only he could find a new team.

UPDATE: Literally 12 hours after writing this, he has now signed with the Rangers. Get your Onion and BBQ because it’s Cowboy Burger time!

VERDICT: MISS   0 for 5

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is not a top-25 outfielder

Well, I’m happy for him, but yeah this prediction does not look good at all. In his age-26 season, Chisholm had his healthiest season to date, racking up 562 AB (621 PA) while hitting .256 with 24 HR and 40 SB. What’s more, is he completely reversed the trend of his rising strikeout rate, as he put up a career-best 25% while maintaining a solid 9% BB%, which helped him get on base more to let his legs driving up his statline. According to the Razzball Player Rater (I ditched ESPN after seeing how poorly they valued Chisholm’s SBs), he rated as the eighth-best outfielder, and 33rd-best player overall (including pitchers).

I don’t really know if this was a failure in process since you typically can’t predict a player is going to completely reverse a multi-year statistical trend (strikeout rate) unless the high strikeout rate was caused by poor health. Then again, I had, prior to settling on writing about Jazz, contemplated writing in Royce Lewis instead of Jazz as the potential bust for similar health concerns (and crazy high ADP), and that one would’ve looked wise. But I guess it is a reminder not to weigh past injuries too heavily.

VERDICT: MISS   0 for 6

7. Tigers win the AL Central

Let me have this one, on a technicality, please? Given their low odds of reaching the playoffs at the start of August, I’ll take a half point… I need it, okay?  Sure, I know they didn’t actually win the AL Central (that would be the Guardians, who were 6.5 games ahead), but they did manage to beat Houston in the playoffs and almost beat the Guardians in the playoffs. This prediction did look hilariously wrong for most of the season (with me wishing I picked the Royals instead) before the Tigers’ insane end-of-season rally.

Most of their success could be attributed to their pitching, Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, a successful reclamation in Jack Flaherty, and several other solid arms. Unfortunately, not only did they trade Jack Flaherty away at the deadline (I don’t blame them), but many of their hitters disappointed, especially Spencer Torkelson and a lot of their other young talent like Parker Meadows and Colt Keith floundered early. They’ll still be an exciting team to watch this year with some elite young talent expected to play next year, though, and it was a very fun story. Perhaps I was a year early on this one, as I think they’re well poised to be among the best in the AL Central again in 2025.

VERDICT: MISS   0.5 for 7

8. Rowdy Tellez finishes as a Top-20 1st baseman

I really regret being so optimistic on this one, as Tellez managed a second straight season with just 13 homers, despite hitting a MaxEV of 117 mph. Granted, he at least improved from his awful 2023, and hit .243 this year and 13 home runs in 383 AB means he may have been useful in deep leagues for short spells. But even with the trainwreck of a position at 1B this year, Tellez still only came in at #34 at the cold corner.

It seems I may have focused too much on the raw power combined with the low strikeout rate, and need to focus more on the fact that he has never been good at barreling the ball and putting that raw talent to use consistently (see Willi Castro). Given his body type doesn’t age well anyway, I’m not going back to the Wellez on this one.

VERDICT: MISS   0.5 for 8

9. FIVE rookies will steal 30+ bases

It feels like this one was right, doesn’t it? But it wasn’t. I mean, 17 players did steal 30 or more bases, and a lot of them were sophomores (Elly, Turang, Duran, Carroll, Maikel Garcia, etc). But the only eligible rookie to hit the mark was Jacob Young (31),. Even Zach Neto didn’t qualify as a rookie, and Jacksons Chourio and Merrill fell short of that mark this year (22 and 16 SB, respectively).

Stolen bases did continue to increase, but perhaps I underestimated just how many rookies can get enough playing time to make that stolen base total a remote possibility. Since, I mean, most rookies get call-ups midseason, and often playing time and injury situations make it such that they don’t start all year. I wouldn’t be surprised if five players who were rookies this year end up with a total like this next year though.

VERDICT: MISS   0.5 for 9

10. Seth Brown outproduces Anthony Santander

Look, I had to go out with a bang, didn’t I? Below, I show the chart that at least explained by reasoning.

	Barrel%	MaxEV	HardHit%	Contact%	O-Swing%	CSW%	xBA	xSLG
Seth Brown	12%	113 mph	47%	70%	35%	28%	.237	.451
Anthony Santander	10%	113 mph	46%	78%	38%	26%	.237	.426

There were more arguments to make it look less bad, as I do realize the difference between a 70% and a 78% Contact% is no small difference. Well, as we know, Santander, despite nothing different in his peripherals other than the lowest HardHit% in years, managed a career-high 44 homers with a .235 AVG. Did not see that one coming.

Brown, meanwhile, hit THIRTY fewer homers! He hit .231 with 14 homers over 400 PA, with the first single-digit barrel rate of his career and a dropoff in power across the board. Perhaps he’s just a short-peak kind of player, and I do also think I really need to stop repeating my mistake of getting too excited about rate stats from platoon players and forgetting it won’t just extrapolate over a full season. Next year I promise my predictions won’t do worse (because technically you can’t get less than 0 correct).

VERDICT: MISS   0.5 for 10… oof ow my bones. 

Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky