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Zach Plesac Total K’s O/U 6.5
The White Sox are always a dangerous offense, but they are a team that also has a lot of swing and miss to it. Chicago has the 2nd-highest K% in baseball over the last week at 31.9% and has the 4th worst K% (26.1%) against RHP over the entire season. If you needed more convincing, the White Sox also have the 2nd-highest Swinging Strike % in baseball this season at 13.1%, behind only the Tigers.
Zach Plesac was absolutely electric against the Tigers on Friday, striking out 11 batters in 7.2 shutout innings. In two starts against the White Sox in 2020, Plesac has 7 K’s in 6 shutout IP and 11 K’s in 8 shutout IP. The way I look at it, Plesac just needs to throw 6 innings to reach 7 strikeouts. Good thing he has done that in all of his 7 starts and reached at least 7 IP in 5 of the 7. Give me the over 6.5 K’s at +125 (or +134) all day long.
Pick: OVER 6.5 (+125 DK, +134 FD)
Tigers @ Royals Run Line
Betting on the Royals rarely inspires confidence, but I like Kansas City here against Detroit. Kris Bubic has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals this season after having not thrown a pitch above High-A prior to 2020. His last two starts in particular have been impressive, allowing just 1 ER in 10.1 total innings with 13 strikeouts.
Michael Fulmer and his 8.17 ERA have been shaky all season, including against the Royals in July when he allowed 4 ER in 2.2 IP. Kansas City as a team has a .955 OPS against Fulmer all-time and several players are heating up, including Salvador Perez and Maikel Franco according to the FTN Bets Hot Hitter Report. In this battle of the AL Central basement, I have the Royals comfortably winning here.
Pick: Royals -1.5 (+112 DK, +110 FD)
Brewers @ Cardinals Total Runs First 3 Innings O/U 2.5
An intriguing pitching matchup will go down in St. Louis on Thursday, with surprise Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes going against Kwang Hyun Kim. Burnes has been absolutely incredible, allowing just 1 ER in his last 29.2 IP with 47 K’s! Absurd. Up until his last start against the Pirates, Kim had experienced similar success with just 1 ER in 27.2 IP.
Both of these offenses have been underwhelming this season (Brewers 90 wRC+, Cardinals 94 wRC+) and even worse over the last week (Brewers 90 wRC+, Cardinals 65 wRC+). Both teams have also scored more than 1 run in the first 3 innings just once in their last five games. Milwaukee and St. Louis are fighting for playoff spots and should be ready to go early in this one, so I’ll take the under in the first 3 innings before the starters tire and the offenses get a chance to get settled.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-139 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 31-27-2
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