Anticipating offense has often sent wagers awry in 2021. Perhaps it’s misguided to keep expecting a different outcome, but a couple of Sunday’s matchups present run-scoring opportunities. Another sees a floundering pitcher on a disappointing team facing a burgeoning ace on a squad seeking a sweep. Here are three tempting bets to make for another full afternoon slate.
Rockies at Reds: O/U 9.5 Runs
The Reds haven’t needed Coors Field to pulverize the Rockies. They followed up Friday night’s 11-5 victory with another 10 scores Saturday. Nine of those runs came against Germán Márquez, who entered the outing with a 3.52 ERA in 355 career innings on the road.
A line of 9.5 runs may seem steep without Colorado’s altitude, but eight of Cincinnati’s last 13 games have cleared that mark. The winner single-handedly tallied double-digit runs in five of them.
Of course, Great American Ball Park is no pitcher’s paradise. In fact, no team has recorded a better wOBA at home than the Reds, who ranked second in home OBP and slugging before Saturday’s outburst. Colorado’s pitching staff, on the other hand, has ceded a 5.75 ERA away from Coors Field. Sunday’s probable starter, Antonio Senzatela, is one of many culprits. He’s surrendered a .355/.405/.632 slash line and 6.75 ERA in four road starts despite making the last three against the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Mets.
The heavily favored Reds should once again put up a crooked tally to complete the sweep and rise above .500 for the first time since April 18. They may not need too much help, which we shouldn’t count on given the Rockies’ MLB-worst wOBA on the road. That said, Colorado will face a starter making his big-league debut. Tony Santillan will get the call after posting a 2.51 ERA in six Triple-A starts. Plenty of more prized newcomers (Daniel Lynch, Logan Gilbert, Jackson Kowar) have stumbled out of the gate, so the 24-year-old righty is far from guaranteed to take advantage of the opportune opening matchup. Those confident in the neophyte may instead want to wager on Cincinnati covering the spread (+117 on DraftKings) or scoring over 5.5 runs (+112 on DraftKings).
Pick: Over (-110 on DraftKings, -112 on FanDuel)
Padres at Mets: O/U 7.5 Runs
The Mets and Padres will close out their second series in as many weeks Sunday. Scoring has been scarce thus far; the six games have seen a combined 31 runs, with only last Sunday’s 6-2 Mets triumph topping five total runs. Such strong pitching between these NL pennant hopefuls isn’t surprising, as the Padres and Mets possess MLB’s two best team ERAs.
Rather than following those trends, bettors should exploit the trail that creates a tepid run line despite a diminished pitching matchup.
Chris Paddack will get another meeting with the Mets after meeting the minimum quality-start requirements last Sunday. While the 25-year-old righty has a 3.38 ERA in his past six turns, he’s yet to climb back to 2019 levels. Paddack has pitched to a hittable 4.27 ERA and 4.04 FIP this season with a .388 wOBA allowed to opposing righties. Although they remain short-handed, the Mets still have the dangerous Pete Alonso in the heart of their lineup.
Joey Lucchesi had a strong showing against his former team on June 4, giving up one run over 4.2 innings in a 2-0 loss. While he’s gotten rocked to a 5.79 ERA, the southpaw also wields a far superior 3.63 xERA and 3.73 ERA. Even if he performs closer to a level established by those peripherals, Lucchesi has yet to pitch five innings in a single outing this season. Meanwhile, the Mets will likely chase the sweep with a shorthanded bullpen. Edwin Díaz and Seth Lugo pitched each of the last two days, with the former recording a four-out save Saturday and the latter just returning from an elbow injury two weeks ago. This may not be a slugfest, but the pitching will look far less dominant.
Pick: Over (-115 on DraftKings, -118 on FanDuel)
Braves at Marlins: Lead After Five Innings
This could be getting too cute, especially since Pablo López gave up six runs to Atlanta earlier this season. Yet he’s still the far superior starter in this matchup. By magnifying the wager to a lead after five innings (in the three-way option including ties), we can remove bullpens from the equation and enhance our potential payout from Miami’s less generous moneyline (-138 on FanDuel, -136 on DraftKings).
That last shortcoming against the Braves represents only one of two blemishes in 2021 for López, who has 2.76 ERA with two runs or fewer allowed in 11 of 13 starts. Furthermore, he has that same ERA in 176.1 career innings at home, where he has surrendered just eight runs (six earned) in seven starts this season.
Things aren’t going nearly as smoothly from Drew Smyly, who’s on the hook for a 5.81 ERA and 6.46 FIP in 10 ugly starts. Although he appeared to be turning the corner last month, the southpaw has allowed 12 runs in 14 innings over his last three starts. He didn’t tally a single strikeout Tuesday at Philadelphia, generating just five called and swinging-strikes apiece in 80 pitches. Don’t overlook the Marlins lineup either. Jazz Chisholm Jr./strong>. and Starling Marte are healthy and swinging scorching bats, and righties Jesús Aguilar and Adam Duvall can make life difficult for Smyly.
Pick: Marlins (+102 on DraftKings)
Andrew Gould Overall Record: 18-15
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$429.26
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)