Sunday is shaping up to be a fun day of baseball. Jacob deGrom is slated to return to the rubber after getting his last spot pushed back. He’s not the only star pitcher lined up, as Trevor Bauer, Aaron Nola, and Lucas Giolito are also scheduled to start. Although far from aces at the moment, Kenta Maeda, Kyle Hendricks, and Germán Márquez can take one step closer to turning around a forgettable few weeks to begin the season.
With a full schedule on tap, let’s scour the schedule to identify three bets for Sunday’s action.
Nationals vs. Yankees: Moneyline
Betting on the Yankees worked last Sunday, and they inched over .500 after Saturday’s extra-innings victory. They’ve won eight of their last 11 entering Sunday’s rubber match against the Nationals, so why wager on them to falter at home?
For starters, the odds make it worth our while. The Nats are considerable underdogs despite pummeling the Bronx Bombers with four homers Friday night. There’s also not a considerable starting-pitching advantage in this contest. Joe Ross, who allowed 10 runs to the Cardinals on April 19, could quickly send this pick ablaze. However, he’s yielded just three combined runs in his other four starts. He’s also ceded a modest .292 wOBA to righties over his career. That makes the danger of facing righties DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton a bit more palatable.
On the other side, lefties have slugged .475 against Domingo Germán, who has served up six home runs in five starts. He’ll have to contend with a returning Juan Soto swinging for the short porch in right field. You don’t have to squint too hard to locate a path to a Nationals upset. Given the nature of baseball, where any team can reasonably beat anyone on any day, bettors need to embrace a capable underdog occasionally. The Nationals fit the bill this afternoon.
Pick: Nationals (+133 on DraftKings)
Phillies at Braves: O/U 8 Runs
Dare we call this matchup a battle of aces? There’s certainly no questioning Aaron Nola’s worthiness of the title. The 27-year-old has twirled a 2.89 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts. That includes 6.2 innings of two-run ball against Atlanta on Opening Day. With seven strikeouts per walk, there’s no doubting his status as a front-line starter.
Huascar Ynoa is nowhere near those heights, but he’s certainly dazzled this season. He’s turned a spot-start into a long-term stay by posting a 2.36 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts in 34.1 innings. While it’s a small sample size, he’s earned every bit of his early success. The 22-year-old righty has a lower SIERA (3.16) and higher CSW (32.2%) than Nola (3.20, 30.5%). Ynoa also hasn’t allowed an earned run in consecutive starts.
Neither bullpen is too trustworthy, so we’re relying on the starters to get the job done against star-driven lineups. These NL East offenses haven’t lived up to expectations either, each entering Sunday Night Baseball with a wRC+ below the league-average benchmark of 100. Nola can especially make sure the Braves don’t do their part to reach the run line, as Ronald Acuña Jr. could sit after leaving Saturday night’s game with a left pinky finger contusion.
Pick: Under (-118 on DraftKings)
Total Runs by Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5
The White Sox wielded an MLB-best 137 wRC+ versus lefties before torching rookie Daniel Lynch for eight runs (all in the first inning) Saturday night. While it’s risky to read into splits so early in the season, they also led the same category last year. Although they no longer have Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert to fuel that success, 2021 breakout star Yermín Mercedes and rookie Andrew Vaughn are carrying the torch. And reigning AL MVP José Abreu is a career .307/.375/.551 hitter off lefties.
They’ll transition from Kansas City’s neophyte to a veteran when opposing Mike Minor on Sunday. The 33-year-old escaped their meeting on April 11 with just one run allowed through four, but seven of 20 batters faced reach base. He hasn’t been so fortunate in his other turns, allowing a 5.23 ERA and 5.02 FIP this season. His only other outing with fewer than three runs permitted came against the Tigers, who have a higher OBP (.239) than slugging percentage (.235) against lefties.
Following a strong 2019 campaign, Minor has served up 17 home runs in his last 87.2 innings. Despite a solid start at Detroit, he quickly dismissed any goodwill as a fantasy streamer by allowing five runs (four earned) at Pittsburgh and three against a Cleveland squad that got no-hit by Wade Miley three days later. The White Sox are in a good position to jump Minor for three or four runs before clearing the over against a Royals bullpen relinquishing a 5.03 ERA.
Pick: Over (+100 on DraftKings)
Andrew Gould Overall Record: 8-9
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): -$33.23
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)