Bets of the Day — April 23

Braves vs Diamondbacks Run Line

 

Heading into tonight’s contest in Atlanta, Luke Weaver holds a 3.78 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. But, there’s plenty of reason to believe Weaver is over-performing right now, namely an xERA of 5.47 and xwOBA of .375. The one thing propping up his results to date is an excellent walk rate of just 1.5%. What makes this current version of Weaver suspect, though, is a two-pitch arsenal featuring a hittable fastball (.457 xwOBA this season) and a changeup. But, the lack of a third pitch leaves him very little margin for error especially tonight as he’s set to face an offense that last year paced all of baseball with a .355 wOBA. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks offense has been productive of late but, they are still down two of their more productive hitters in Ketel Marte and Christian Walker, this was, after all,  an offense that ranked just 25th last year in team wOBA at .306. Yes, Huascar Ynoa got lit up last time out by the Cubs but he’s shown a hard fastball averaging 97 and a slider that can miss bats at an impressive clip evidence being a 33.1% CSW% through his 16 innings this year. To be fair, he has his warts similar to Weaver, but he gets the easier matchup up the two by far. The encouraging thing too is that the Diamondbacks have one of the lower implied team totals of the slate at well under four runs. For more on Ynoa be sure to check out Matt Wallach’s Going Deep article here. Ronald Acuña Jr.€™s status would make this case that much better (no kidding) even still there’s some value in backing the Braves tonight as large favorites. 

Pick: Braves -1.5 (+120 DK)

 

New York Mets Total Runs

 

Erick Fedde has surrendered an xwOBA of over .350 in each of the past three seasons and we’re seeing the same this year with a mark of .364 through his first three starts. And his xERA has been over 5.00 every season going back to 2017. His K rate is way up this year at 28.3% but that’s backed by a minuscule 6.9% swinging K rate and 23.5% CSW%. It should come crashing back down to his career mark of 16.1% anytime soon. The Mets have gotten off to a sluggish start offensively but last year they raked against RHP with a team wOBA of .353 (3rd). Now with Francisco Lindor, we should expect the Mets offense to eventually turn the corner and there’s a good chance of that tonight against a highly suspect opposing pitcher. Now, let’s hope they can bury the narrative of not scoring runs for baseball’s best pitcher. 

Pick: Over 4.5 (+107 DK)

 

Colorado Rockies Total Runs

 

Going back to 2019 (155.1 IP) Vince Velasquez owns a 5.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He’s also surrendered a wOBA of over .340 and ISO of over .200 to both RHB and LHB in that span. The righty has struggled with efficiency too in his career as a starter as he’s managed just three starts of six innings or more since 2019. The Rockies offense is a scary one to back but a suspect pitcher making his first start since September of last year at a venue like Coors Field could be a perfect storm. Knowing that Velasquez topped out at 63 pitches in his last appearance, the Phillies pen is another thing worth noting. Last year, Joe Girardi’s relievers combined for a league-worst 7.06 ERA. This year they’ve been better but still far from imposing with a collective 4.74 ERA and 4.64 FIP. 

Pick: Over 5.5 ( +114 DK)

 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 4-5-0

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)