Bets of the Day – July 11th


Welcome to the K-Zone!

Mitch Keller over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs MIA


The Marlins have been on an offensive slide lately without two of their best hitters in Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler. Over the last 30 days they have the 7th highest K% (23.4%) and 5th worst wRC+ (84) against righties. 18 of the previous 25 right-handed starters they have faced have found at least five strikeouts, so why not take a shot on Mitch Keller tonight? That’s what betting is anyhow. Taking shots.

Keller has racked up four strikeouts in 10/14 starts this year, and at +125 I’m willing to risk it for the biscuit that he gets to five. SaberSim projections have him finishing with 4.52 strikeouts tonight. 4.52 is a lot closer to five than it is to four, people. Admittedly, it’s a roll of the dice with Keller considering his advanced metrics, but Miami has only seen Keller once in a three-strikeout appearance out of the bullpen last year.


Trevor Rogers over 4.5 strikeouts (-120) vs PIT 2u


Look, I knew everyone was dying to have a reason to watch this Pirates/Marlins Monday night thriller of a showdown, so if you don’t like the Keller play, consider Trevor Rogers. Early on this year, Rogers struggled with his putaway pitches, which was surprising following the 10.62 K/9 he posted in 2021. The NL rookie of the year runner-up averaged 6.28 strikeouts per start last year and cleared this line in 20/25 outings.

While it might be too soon to say that strikeout form is back, he has five or more punchouts in four of his last six starts, and now he gets a Pirates lineup that really struggles against southpaws. Pittsburgh has the worst strikeout rate (27.7%) and fourth-worst wRC+ (82) over the last 30 days when facing lefties. 19 of the last 24 lefties to face them have gone over 4.5 strikeouts, and SaberSim sees Rogers putting up 5.10 tonight at home in Miami tonight.


Max Scherzer over 6.5 strikeouts (-140) vs ATL


If they’re going to dangle the low-hanging fruit on Max Scherzer, I’m going to bite. It is a bit juicy, but that’s what we want in a piece of fruit anyhow. Mad Max has had his way with this Atlanta roster for quite some time now, and owns a 30.9% strikeout rate in 184 plate appearances against seven of the nine hitters in today’s lineup.

The Braves have not been the punchout machine they have been over the course of the year lately, but that’s a result of who they have faced. On the season they have the 4th highest K% (24.7%) against righties, and we all know what Max is capable of in terms of Ks. In his first start in over a month and a half, he had 11 strikeouts against the Reds. I would not be surprised to see him finish with double-digit punchouts once again tonight.


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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