Bets of the Day – July 13th

Life is too short to bet the under.

Okay, okay, okay, fine. I’ll let you in on how to pick strikeout kings: look for a team that can’t hit, see that they face a quality starter who can rack up the punches, and take the over. Experienced betters will tell you that majority of the time the value lies with the under, but unders aren’t fun, right? Nobody wants that sweat. We want over sweat. Let’s keep the winning ways going tonight with a few more OVERS.


Luis Severino over 6.5 strikeouts (+115) vs CIN


The Reds are the gift that keeps on giving to the K prop aficionados recently. Over the last two weeks, they have the second-highest strikeout rate (31%) and seventh worst wRC+ (82) against right-handed pitching. A major part of their recent whiffing ways has been due to the stout pitching they have faced as of late, and it doesn’t get any easier tonight facing the Yankees hurler, Luis Severino.

Sevy has had a renaissance year following various injuries over the past couple of seasons. Through 15 starts he ranks in the top 87th percentile in xwOBA/xERA, and has had plenty of strikeouts along the way. He is in the top 81st percentile in strikeout rate and has seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts. His best putaway pitch this year has been his slider, and he has a 40.1% CSW% on it, which ranks 9th best out of all starting pitchers.

That is bad news for the Reds as that has been the pitch they struggle with the most this season. They have a weighted slider rating of -20.6 which is 5th worst in the league. Fortunately for Severino backers, that should amount to plenty of strikeouts tonight as he looks to become the 11th starter over the last 16 contests against Cinncinati to record seven strikeouts or more.


Pablo López over 5.5 strikeouts (-140) vs PIT


Look at what we got here again folks! Another whiff-heavy team! Would you look at that! The Pirates of Pittsburgh have the 2nd worst K% (25.4%) and 5th worst wRC+ (88) against RHP this season and don’t worry, those rates have maintained over the past couple of weeks as well. Now, if you were to just take a look at Pablo López‘s game log I’m guessing you would probably say, “b-b-b-but Paperboi! He has only cleared this twice in his last eight games!” To that I say, fear not young padawan, look at who this man has faced. All of those teams hardly strike out and our guy Pablo still struck out at least five every start.

I’m certain if Pablo were single he would have everyone chasing him. He has a chase rate that ranks in the top 90th percentile, and when the Pirates go fishing they tend to whiff heavy. Pittsburgh has the 2nd worst O-Contact% (61.3%) on the season, so if that change-up of his is working, we’ll be seeing plenty of swings and misses tonight.


Cristian Javier over 7.5 strikeouts (+115) at LAA


Say it with me now people. Overs, overs, overs, overs. Cristian Javier should have no trouble getting over this mark against this Angels team that is incapable of making contact these days. If Javier started throwing beach balls tonight I don’t think they would be able to hit it. Maybe the team should all take a field trip to the local Optometrist? I don’t know, just throwing suggestions out there.

The Halos have the worst strikeout rate (29.5%) and 2nd worst wRC+ (69) ((not nice)) over the last 30 days against righties. This is a steep number to cross, but Javier has a 34.1% strikeout rate and had 14 strikeouts against the Angels just two weeks ago. That K rate is the 6th best among all starting pitchers, and he has a xwOBA/xERA that is in the top 94% as well. Hard not to like this at +115.


Joe Musgrove over 4.5 strikeouts (-130) at COL


Speaking of numbers to like, this one catches my eye as well. Look, the Coors effect is a real thing that definitely scares me a tad, but not enough to hold me back from this number and price. Joe Musgrove has eclipsed this line in 12 of 15 starts this year and has a solid track record when facing this Rockies team. Since joining the Padres in 2021, he has faced them four times and has a K log of 8, 11, 6, 11. Pretty decent. Those punchouts all amount to a 30.6% K% and .224 xwOBA in 85 plate appearances for Colorado.

Despite the altitude-aided offense Coors promotes, the Rockies are just 23rd in wRC+ (90) at home when facing a righty. Musgrove has the 7th best CSW% (33%) and a xwOBA/xERA that ranks in the top 82nd percentile. I faded the Coors effect with Sean Manaea in his last start and it worked out. Let’s hope for the same here with Musgrove tonight.


Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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