Red Sox vs Angels Total Runs
Two of baseball’s more productive lineups so far in the Angels and Red Sox in this one. The Angels team wOBA of .317 ranks 7th while the Red Sox trail only the White Sox and Dodgers at .331. Nick Pivetta has had some decent moments early on, but I’m going with the longer track record here in that going back to 2019, he’s coughed up a wOBA of over .340 to hitters from both sides of the plate. Unfortunately, the Angels are without Anthony Rendon but we know there’s power lurking here still with the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, and Mike Trout. Griffin Canning has shown flashes too but overall his stuff isn’t overwhelming so he’ll have little margin for error, leaving me to side with what has been a productive Red Sox offense thus far. What’s more, is that the young righty will be supported by an Angels bullpen whose relievers have combined for just a 10.5% K-BB% (third-worst) and that’s so far been reflected by their combined 5.27 ERA (4th worst).
Pick: Over 9.5 (-104 DraftKings)
Blue Jays Total Runs
It’s hard not to like the Blue Jays lineup in terms of all the power they can stack up. Vladimir Guerrero Jr./strong>, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernández, Randal Grichuk, Marcus Semien, and yes of course Rowdy Tellez all have power upside. Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez has shown to be susceptible to the long ball surrendering 37 in his last 175 IP. In addition, he’s struggled with free passes this year with a 15.2% BB walk rate thus far. Going back to 2019, he’s also allowed a wOBA and ISO of .347 and .241 respectively to RHB which plays right into the strength of this Blue Jays lineup. The other key part here is the setting, as tonight’s contest will be down in Dunedin Florida at TD Ballpark which has shown to be a friendly venue for home runs.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+104 DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal Total Strikeouts
Why not close out the week with a K prop? Overall, Tarik Skubal’s line is frightening so this one is far from safe. But, I’m intrigued by his last start against the Twins. First, we saw his pitch count shoot up to 96 and he also recorded eight strikeouts backed by a 30.2% CSW. What fueled that was a splitter that returned a 38% CSW. Splitters, and young pitchers for that matter, are notoriously mercurial but this strikeout prop could be worth the dice roll considering that Skubal is one of baseball’s most impressive pitching prospects. All you have to do is look at his minor league numbers to get an idea of the impressive K upside he has. The Cubs have also been a favorable matchup for strikeouts as their team K rate of 26.4% (6th worst) can attest to.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+128 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 8-10-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)