During my 1st round mock draft leading up to the 2024 MLB Draft, I did not get many selections correct. One of the selections I did get correct was the Chicago Cubs drafting at 14th overall. The Cubs seemingly have a mold for prospects that they prefer, which led me to correctly predict (or guess) who they would select. That player ended up being Cam Smith out of Florida State.
Since draft day, Smith has been one of the more impressive draftees from an extremely talented and top heavy draft class. He managed to flash the tools that make many excited about the prospect he can be, progressing all the way to AA after just 27 MiLB games. In those games he hit .313/.396/.609 with 7 home runs and 16 extra base hits, while only striking out 24 times in 32 games. It is an impressive start to his pro career after a dominant college season. Smith is one of the fastest prospect risers, and there are reasons to believe he can still improve his game. Let’s take a look at Smith’s overall prospect profile.
Cam Smith Prospect Breakdown
Ranked as a top 100 prospect coming out of high school, Smith decided instead to withdraw his name from the 2022 draft and head to Tallahassee to play for the Noles. Many imagined Smith would be a highly productive player for 2 years before having his name called in the 1st round after his Sophomore campaign. Only half of that statement ended up being true.
Smith massively struggled in his 1st college season. He showcased the power that made many evaluators so impressed with his potential, but that came with swing and miss and consistency problems. Entering his summer season at the Cape Cod Summer League, a switch was flipped. Smith tour up the Cape to the tune of a .347/.406/.575 slash line with 6 home runs, and only striking out 24 times in 44 games. He then carried that momentum into this spring with a .387/.488/.654 slash and almost as many walks as strikeouts (48:44 K:BB ratio). The best part about Smith is he is the improvements he is still capable of making on top of his present skills.
Elite Raw Power, but Average In Game…for now
When it comes to pure raw power, Smith stands out. He has a knack for impacting the baseball making consistently hard contact which he showed this spring for Florida State. On the season Smith averaged 92.5 miles per hour exit velocity, with a 54.2% hard hit rate (95+ mph). He also had a max EV of 115.7, while putting 21 balls in play this season at 110 mph or above. That shows the consistent impact he is able to make to the baseball. But why did Smith only hit 16 home runs in the balloon era of college baseball? Groundball rate.
On the season, Smith average a 5.4 degree launch angle with a 48.9% groundball rate. When taking that into account, it is actually impressive that he managed to have 39 extra base hits on the season. Assuming Smith is able to develop the ability to turn some of those worm burning groundballs into line drives or fly balls, it is easy to imagine him consistently chasing 30 home runs at the MLB level. The power is most definitely in there, he just needs to learn how to get to that power more frequently.
Barrel Skills & Swing Decisions
During Smith’s freshman season, the main obstacle that let to him struggling was his tendency to swing and miss. He struggled to the tune of a 28.9% strikeout rate. The main reason for that was a below average 70.6% contact rate and a 33.5% chase rate. As already mentioned, something shifted as Smith went to the Cape for the summer between his Freshman and Sophomore year. During the 2024 campaign, he drastically improved all of those data points. He lowered his K% to 14.7%, while increasing his contact rate to 82.6% and his chase rate to 21.4%.
The ability to make such great improvements in one offseason is special. Most hitters simply have flaws, and they have to maximize their potential with those flaws. But Smith was able to make improvements that made his flaws become legitimate strengths. The ability to have above an 80% contact rate with around a 20% chase rate, combined with a 92.5 mph average exit velocity and 115 max EV, created the ingredients to compete for a batting title and chase 30 home runs in the same season. There are only a handful of players who are capable of doing that year in and year out.
Developmental Fit
Early in this piece, I mentioned that the Cubs have a type. And I truly believe the most under talked about part of the draft and how player evaluation is how they fit in the organization they are drafted in. When an organization takes a player with a skillset they have struggled to develop, it doesn’t matter how talented the player is, a lot of times that marriage does not work out. The Cubs have a track record of developing players similar to Smith, the main one being 2023 1st round pick Matt Shaw.
The reason I mocked Cam Smith to the Cubs was because of a blind resume I did comparing Smith to Shaw. We have already discussed how impressive Smith’s combination of contact rate, chase rate, and avg exit velocity are, but lets take a look at him and Shaw side by side.
As you can see in the graph above, if the Cubs felt Shaw was a fit for them, they would definitely love what they saw from Smith. We have quickly seen Shaw rise up to AAA, putting up impressive numbers at every level along the way. It is obvious the Cubs have a preference for college bats who showcase the abilities to impact the baseball, while making a ton of contact, and not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. It made too much sense for the Cubs to also like Smith after what Shaw has been able to do in his short time in their system.
Conclusion
Smith had an impressive 2024 calendar year. After dominating the ACC, he helped lead his team to a College World Series appearance, then proceeded to enter pro ball and continue his domination. Smith checks the boxed you want out of an elite hitter. He makes a ton of contact with impressive plate discipline. He combines those skills with double plus raw power, and it is easy to see why he was so productive in his 1st season. The best part for Smith, is there is still progress to be made. If he can make the swing and miss adjustments he made in one offseason, there is no reason to imagine he can’t do the same with his groundball tendencies. At the very least, Smith has the traits to be a productive offensive piece in the MLB soon (think Yandy Díaz production), but if he starts hitting the ball in the air? Well, Cub fans will be happy about their 1st round selection.
Photos by Namroud Gorguis/Unsplash and Alessio Soggetti/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)