Over the past decade, the Cleveland Guardians have gained a reputation as one of the best pitching development organizations in all of Major League Baseball with the organization successfully developing many impact starting pitchers such as Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Gavin Williams. Drafted with the 42nd overall pick in the 2015 draft by Cleveland, Triston McKenzie is another homegrown Cleveland starting pitcher who has experienced success in recent seasons. After making his Major League debut in 2020 as the Guardians’ #1 prospect, McKenzie turned into three solid seasons for Cleveland, culminating in a 2022 season where he produced a 2.96 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and a 19.7% K-BB over 191.1 innings pitched for the Guardians. McKenzie suffered a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow in 2023, causing him to miss most of last season, and he has struggled mightily to start the 2024 season, resulting in him being demoted to AAA on June 30th. This article will take a look at what has gone wrong for McKenzie this past season, and attempt to identify whether he will be able to reclaim his prior success in the future.
Pitch Arsenal
McKenzie’s pitch arsenal predominately consists of three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a curveball, and a slider. McKenzie utilizes all three pitches to both left and right-handed hitters, utilizing the slider more often against right-handed hitters and the curveball more frequently against left-handed hitters. Pitch models have not been impressed with both the “stuff” and command of McKenzie’s pitch arsenal this season with all three pitches rating as well below average by the measure of PLV and plvLoc+.
As mentioned earlier, McKenzie has struggled mightily to start the 2024 season, with him experiencing significant regression in all of the above statistical categories. These struggles are reflective of how pitch quality models such as PLV evaluate McKenzie’s arsenal, as producing a 5.11 ERA and 6.45 FIP over 75.2 innings pitched is well below the league average. The most critical regression that McKenzie has experienced in 2024 has been the significant decreases in strikeout and walk rates. These decreases have contributed the most to McKenzie’s decline since strikeout and walk rates are directly influenced by the performance of the pitcher, and can not be affected by variance such as “batted ball luck” that can influence traditional statistics such as ERA and WHIP.
So why has McKenzie experienced such a sharp decline in production after his stellar 2022 season? A decline in velocity on all three of his pitches, particularly his four-seam fastball, could be a contributing factor as to why McKenzie has generated fewer swing-and-miss and allowed more hard contact so far this season.
As shown by the table above, McKenzie has experienced a significant dip in average velocity on all three of his pitches since the end of the 2022 season. Particularly notable is the decrease in average velocity on his four-seam fastball, which has decreased from 92.5 MPH to 91.1 MPH this season. This decrease is notable due to the shape of McKenzie’s four-seam fastball. As shown by the pitch cards displayed earlier, McKenzie generates an average induced vertical break of 18.7 inches on his four-seam fastball which is considered to be good when analyzed in a vacuum, as a higher amount of induced vertical break on a four-seam fastball creates a “rising” effect to the hitter, causing them to frequently swing under the pitch especially when located at the top of the strike zone. However, McKenzie is a pitcher who utilizes an “over-the-top” delivery, which results in opposing hitters expecting a higher amount of induced vertical break on the fastball given the amount of backspin this release height is typically able to generate. This results in McKenzie’s induced vertical break on his four-seam fastball being considered average, given his release height, and the declining velocity on the offering means that the four-seam fastball is a below-average pitch in reality.
These observations are backed up by the results that McKenzie has experienced with his four-seam fastball in recent years, as the pitch went from being one of the most productive fastballs by measure of run value in 2022, to one of the least productive in 2024. McKenzie has also given up more hard contact and generated less swing-and-miss with the offering this season, with the xwOBA allowed increasing from .336 to .470, and the whiff rate decreasing from 19.6% to 10.3%.
The main question to be asked is how can McKenzie improve the results on his four-seam fastball to increase his overall level of production. One solution would be to simply focus on regaining the velocity he lost over the past two seasons. This is easier said than done, however, and I am sure that this already has been a focus of his over the past year. Plus, this decline in velocity could be attributed to the UCL sprain that McKenzie experienced last season, which would indicate that his previous levels of velocity could be particularly difficult to achieve without further surgery.
Another solution would be for McKenzie to attempt to add a sinker to his pitch arsenal. Throwing multiple fastballs has become a popular trend in recent years for pitchers to utilize to improve their overall fastball performance. As I described in my article Embrace The Sinker from this past March, utilizing two fastballs within a pitcher’s arsenal can be an effective way to improve overall fastball performance, as opposing hitters have to focus on more than one fastball (which looks very similar out of the pitcher’s hand) which can allow for sinkers to generate more weak contact and four-seam fastballs to generate more swing-and-miss when hitters “guess” incorrectly which fastball the pitcher is utilizing. Notable pitchers such as Tyler Glasnow, Luis Severino, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have either added or increased the usage of their sinker this season, resulting in improved fastball performance, and Triston McKenzie could take a step closer to reclaiming his prior success if he can effectively add a sinker to his pitch arsenal in the future.
Command
In addition to the decreases in velocity across his pitch arsenal, Triston McKenzie’s declined ability to command his pitches has been a significant contributor to his struggles this season. As mentioned earlier, McKenzie’s walk rate has declined from an above-average 5.9% in 2022 to a below-average 14.4% so far in 2024. Outside of walk rate, McKenzie has also been throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone this season, and pitch location models also conclude that McKenzie’s command ability has regressed in 2024.
As explained by Location+, command is less “sticky” year-to-year than stuff, so it is possible that McKenzie is going through a rough stretch and that his command ability will regress in a positive direction in the future. However, there has been such a steep increase in his walk rate and decrease in his zone rate that there is plenty of reason to believe that McKenzie has seen a regression in his ability to command his pitches over the past two seasons.
As shown by the heat maps above, McKenzie has experienced plenty of difficulty commanding his pitches in consistent locations so far this season, especially as it pertains to his secondary pitches. To right-handed hitters, the only consistent in-zone locations that McKenzie has utilized have been down the heart of the plate, while his locations are only slightly better to left-handed hitters. By consistently locating all three of his pitches down the heart of the plate, opposing hitters can easily anticipate where McKenzie’s pitches are going to be located and only need to concentrate on differences in velocity and movement when identifying whether or not to swing at a given pitch. McKenzie has not been utilizing his four-seam fastball at the top of the strike zone against right-handed hitters, which might also play a role in his diminished ability to generate swing-and-miss.
During his breakout 2022 season, McKenzie was locating his four-seam fastball up in the strike zone more frequently, while also utilizing his secondary pitches in more ideal locations (curveballs down, sliders away) against right-handed hitters. The locations of his three pitches against left-handed hitters have remained relatively constant over the past couple of seasons, and I’d expect these to likely remain the same moving forward.
How can McKenzie improve his ability to command his pitches to improve his overall performance? I would focus on locating the four-seam fastball up in the zone again, as throwing 91 mph fastballs with expected movement down the middle of the plate is not a recipe for success. Combining locating the four-seamer up in the zone with the addition of a sinker that he can use middle-in should allow McKenzie to generate more swing-and-miss and mitigate hard contact with his fastballs. Similar to the issues regarding his velocity, it is also possible that the lingering effects of last season’s UCL sprain are a contributing factor to McKenzie’s decline in command and perhaps further rest or surgery would play a major role in improving his command. Locating the four-seam fastball up in the zone and improving the locations of his secondary pitches to right-handed pitchers would take Triston McKenzie another step closer to reclaiming his prior success.
Concluding Thoughts
After having a breakout season in 2022, Triston McKenzie has experienced a decrease in velocity and ability to command his pitches since spraining his UCL last season. The objective of this article was to evaluate McKenzie’s pitch arsenal to determine whether he will be able to reclaim his prior level and success, and it appears to me that McKenzie will likely need to undergo an elbow procedure to reach his potential. I am certainly not a doctor or surgeon, but the lingering effects of last season’s UCL sprain are a common explanation for both the decrease in velocity and command, and it appears that rest and recovery have not been an effective strategy for recovering the UCL.
Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd of The Athletic wrote a fantastic article in April detailing McKenzie’s decision to not undergo surgery last season and it is understandable why McKenzie elected not to undergo surgery and attempt to pitch in 2024. McKenzie is arbitration-eligible and he wanted to be able to pitch in as many seasons as possible during his arbitration-eligible years before entering free agency after the 2026 season. While it was an understandable decision to take that risk and attempt to play through the injury, McKenzie is currently at risk of missing the entire 2025 season if he elects to get an operation done on his elbow now, costing him potentially millions of dollars in earnings. I believe that McKenzie still has the potential to reclaim the level of success he flashed in 2022, especially if he adds a sinker to his arsenal and improves his command, however, it could be a long road back to recovery if he elects to get surgery to his injured elbow.
Photos by Icon Sports Wire and Adobe Stock | Adapted by Carlos Leano