Hello deep leaguers! Monday was one of those days that unites the entire MLB fandom. We didn’t come together for the Derby, or a major career milestone, or a gimmicky game in a cornfield. We all joined together to figure out why none of the runs Cristopher Sanchez allowed in the first inning were unearned. To the naked eye, a ball thrown wide of the first baseman that would have ended the inning should have led to all the runs allowed afterwards being unearned. But since the throw was the second leg of a potential double play, that out cannot be assumed. In other words, the error gave the runner an extra base, rather than negating the out. Think of it like an over-throw error from an outfielder that allows a runner to advance to second on what would have been a single. And while I get it, it still FEELS wrong. Don’t get me started on errors. We’ll be here all day and I won’t be done ranting about how infielders are expected to handle 115 MPH grounders, while outfielders can let a lazy fly hit them in the chest and it’s scored a hit.
Fallers
J.J. Bleday, Outfield, Cincinnati Reds – 26% Rostered
Bleday was a riser back on May 13th. He was in the midst of a month in which he batted .301/.387/.631 with eight dingers. If we can remember that far back, we’d know that back then, Bleday had elite exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates. He was striking out in less than 14% of his at bats!
Well he slashed just .161/.288/.323 with four homers in June and is batting .176 one week into July. His average exit velocity has dropped under league average, and his hard hit and barrel rates are just barely above the mean. His strikeout rate is still pretty good at 19% though, and he’s still walking a ton. He is also still hitting for power when he makes contact. He had 4 homers on 15 hits in June after recording 8 homers on 31 hits in May, but he’s not making nearly enough contact.
We can see via the above chart that his contact ability has dropped dramatically since the beginning of June. Bleday also struggles against lefties, and is batting just .200 with a .667 OPS vs southpaws this season. He isn’t in a platoon, but maybe he should be. I’m keeping my eye on Hector Rodriguez, who is having a nice year at AAA and could become an option as the Reds sit at the bottom of the NL Central.
Cooper Pratt, Shortstop, Milwaukee Brewers – 3% Rostered
We’ll stick with my favorite division, but to a player with much less MLB data. The Brewers signed Pratt to an eight year contract back in April, and the speedy shortstop made his MLB debut a few weeks ago on June 16th. Pratt has slashed just .204/.313/.222 with no homers over his first 61 MLB plate appearances, but he does have six steals.
We shouldn’t expect much power from Pratt, as he only had six homers in 220 at bats at AAA before his promotion, but he also had 17 stolen bases and a 37:34 K:BB ratio. His defense can keep him in the Brewers starting lineup, but we need him to get on base and run to stay in our lineups. Pratt doesn’t have enough at bats to consider his rates stabilized yet, but his 17% K rate and 12% walk rate are encouraging. Pratt is also a big guy at 6’4″ 210, and is only 21 years old, so it’s not crazy to project some power onto that frame as he ages.
He probably won’t move the needle this year, but the Brewers obviously like what they see in Pratt. I love the advanced plate approach, and I also trust Milwaukee more than any other MLB team to develop young players right now. Pratt is a sneaky dynasty or keeper target if you can pry him away from a manager turned off by his poor average or OPS.
Travis Bazzana, Second Base, Cleveland Guardians – 41% Rostered
I did not think I would get a chance to write about Bazzana since his pedigree pushed his roster percentage up fast and he started so hot. Bazzana slashed .311/.398/.476 with three homers, eight steals and a 13:23 K:BB in May – his first full month in the Majors. But he slashed just .189/.275/.368 in June. He still smacked four homers, stole four bases and had a nearly identical K:BB at 12:24.
I was tempted to just chalk the variance up to luck since Bazzana had a .377 BABIP during his hot May, but he also had a .203 BABIP during his cold June, combined with a contact chart that has trended downward over the last few weeks.
We can see on his full process chart a dip in his power output and decision value as well. None of this should be too surprising. Rookies that start hot often have a little regression on the way as opposing teams get more data on how to pitch them. It’s also encouraging that at least his decision value is picking back up lately.
But beyond these charts, I’m a bit underwhelmed by Bazzana’s sub-89 MPH exit velocity, his 4.2% barrel rate and his 37% hard hit rate. He has a solid approach at the plate, but I’m not seeing a ton of power upside right now. He had 14 homers and 25 stolen bases with a .250 average over 135 MiLB games and that feels like his prime projection right now. That’s not world beating, but if you could pull him away from a manger who was turned off by his slow June, I think you could do a lot worse at the keystone over the next 5-6 years.
Risers
Victor Bericoto, Outfield, San Francisco Giants – 1% Rostered
Bericoto was slashing .299/.355/.449 with six homers in the hitter friendly PCL before his promotion a few weeks ago. We always see the PCL described as “hitter friendly” without much explanation, but Bericoto was playing for Sacramento. That means his home park was the same park the Athletics are currently using as their home stadium, Sutter Health Park. SHP has the highest offensive park factor of all MLB ball parks this season by a good margin. In fact, the largest overall park factor gap is the gap between SHP at number 1 and Coors at number 2. It’s a great place to hit. The Nationals Park comes in third, and it’s starting to become obvious why I’ve covered so many Nats, Rockies and A’s hitters this season.
Anyway, Bericoto went from spending half his time hitting in the MLB’s best hitters park to spending half his time in the fifth worst park for offense when he was called up to the Giants. Despite that shift, he’s hit even better since his promotion, slashing .314/.327/.608 with four homers and a stolen base through is first 52 MLB plate appearances. That power is looking legitimate with a nearly 16% barrel rate, 52.6% hard hit rate and a 89.6 MPH average exit velocity.
I do worry about his 25% strike out rate. His 28% whiff rate is bad, but his 40% chase rate is worse. He’s also drawn just a single walk so far. He struck out less than 19% of his AAA at bats and carried an 8% walk rate, so hopefully those rates improve as he gets more MLB experience. Overall the strikeouts worry me, but I do expect his walk and K rates to improve based on his minor league record. The Giants have had a rough year and have every reason to let Bericoto handle every day duties down the stretch. I think he’s worth a speculative add in very deep leagues (16 teams or up).
Cedric Mullins, Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays – 8% Rostered
Mullins was a 30/30 player in 2021 and still serves as a prime example of why we never should have trusted stats from 2021. He’s stolen 30 bases in a season twice since then, but has been unable to reach 20 homers. Anyway, Mullins was terrible for the first month of the season. I won’t post those stats since some of you may be eating. He hit a little better in May, posting a .260 average, but other than a few steals, didn’t really have anything to show for it.
He really came alive in June though, slashing .261/.35o/.478 with five homers and three steals. Mullins did have a ghastly .139 BABIP in April, and a totally normal .290ish mark in both May and June, where he posted .260 batting averages. He’s stayed productive with two homers and a steal already in July and these two charts give me some tepid optimism.
I know the decision value is falling over the last week, but I like the overall upward slant. His decision value is still below average, but has improved greatly and consistently as the season progressed. His start was just so bad, it’s obfuscated his recent success. I think a .240-.260 average with 10 homers and 15 steals over the second is probably his ceiling, but I think he’ll get to close to those numbers as long as his BABIP holds at a reasonable rate.
Josh Lowe, Outfield, Los Angeles Angels – 2% Rostered
Lowe batted under .190 for the first two months of the year, then spent some time at AAA getting back on track before being recalled for the last week of June. He took that personally and demolished AAA pitching to the tune of a 1.014 OPS. He has since returned to the Majors with a vengeance, slashing .323/.344/.581 with two homers and two stolen bases in 31 at-bats.
We have no useful data visualization to lean on since he’s been back up for such a short time. Also, his overall rates for the year are still depressed thanks to his early season struggles, so they aren’t much use either. He’s walked just once and struck out nine times in 32 plate appearances since his return, which are actually worse K and BB rates than he posted in April and May. Both his walk and K rates are also worse than they were last season when he finished with a .220 average, .690 OPS, 11 homers and 18 steals.
All this is to say that Lowe is still an intriguing power/speed threat, who still hasn’t figured out his contact issues. He’s young enough at 28 that the Angels might let him run with a starting role for a while, but he’s also old enough that they should probably let younger guys have a shot if Lowe starts struggling to make contact again. And with his penchant for swinging and missing I expect him to struggle again soon.
Of the three outfield risers this week, Mullins is my clear favorite to continue producing enough to warrant a roster spot. I have a bit of interest in Bericoto, and I expect Lowe doesn’t hit enough to stick.
That’s it for week 16. May all your pitchers have great defense behind them, or may their runs be unearned. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there deep leaguers!
