OMG it’s the trade deadline! It’s one of my favorite days to stare at my phone too much. I’m already excited about next week’s post deadline article. That week is when we get to see a whole bunch of players who were previously blocked get their shot at MLB playing time. It is an incredibly important period for deep leaguers. These next couple weeks are like a fantasy gold rush. There will be players who make a difference down the stretch, and if you get really lucky, you might find the next Joe Ryan (made his debut in Minnesota after being dealt for Nelson Cruz). But for now, patience and…
Fallers
Nathaniel Lowe, First Base, Washington Nationals
48% Rostered
After four consecutive seasons batting at least .260 with a minimum .762 OPS, Lowe looked primed for a solid season in Washington. He was set to bat behind two young offensive stars in CJ Abrams and James Wood. Even if he never improved his launch angle and remained a 15-20 homer player, Lowe’s consistent batting average, high walk rate and reliability (at least 140 games played each of those four season) made him an attractive target.
Sadly, Lowe has turned in the worst offensive performance of his career. He is slashing .226/.295/.388 and has been even worse in July, with a .200/.281/.350 line this month. Oddly, Lowe’s barrel rate, hard hit rate and exit velocity are all slightly better this year than they were in 2024. All three metrics are below the MLB average, but obviously that was the case last year as well. On the other hand, his chase rate, whiff rate and K rate are all worse than last season. His K rate is especially concerning, as it has ballooned from 22% to 27% and now sits firmly in the bottom 20% of the league.
But there is reason for optimism. Lowe’s decision value chart suggests he was swinging at pitches he should not have (and vice versa) for a couple months, but it appears he has righted the ship to some degree. It hasn’t shown up in his K:BB rate though, which has held pretty steady all season. Lowe has also been locked in with runners in scoring position and is slashing .303/.371/.523 in those situations. As a result, he is tied for 3rd among all first base eligible players with 63 RBI on the season despite the drop in his batting line.
I can’t say for sure that Lowe’s average will bounce back, but his approach does appear to have improved recently. He should continue to be an excellent RBI source down the stretch, and if that’s your need, Lowe is likely someone you could pry away from another manager on the cheap if they are frustrated with his disappointing triple slash on the season.
Gavin Lux, Second Base, Third Base, and Outfield, Cincinnati Reds
9% Rostered
I think this is third time Lux has appeared here this season and I promise you it’s the last. I didn’t want to let go of Lux since he qualifies at three positions, can slot in at CI or MI if your league uses them, and has hit for a good average all year. He plays in a great offensive park, in same lineup as Elly De La Cruz, and sometimes even batted in the top third (don’t get me started) of the lineup.
But Lux isn’t taking advantage of Great American Ball park, with an OPS 50 higher points on the road than at home and has hit for less and less power as the season has progressed. Lux posted an .855 OPS in April, a .694 OPS in May, a .661 OPS in June and has just a .642 OPS with a day left in July. He’s got a .341 BABIP in July as well, so get that bad luck excuse out of here. He hasn’t hit a single homer this month and hasn’t even attempted a stolen base since April.
His process chart, which was trending up back in May, has slanted in the wrong direction ever since. He is still walking at a great clip and could be a decent source of runs scored if he was batting first or second. But he’s still most often hitting fifth, as if he was a reliable RBI guy. Heck, I’d rather even see him drop in the order, to create a sort of wrap-around lead off effect. As it stands, he’s virtually useless in the context of our game and I remain disappointed as much in the way the Reds have utilized Lux as I am in his production this season.
Colton Cowser, Outfield, Baltimore Orioles
40% Rostered
Cowser gave us a very useful .242/.321/.447 line with 24 homers as a rookie in 2024. He spent time on the IL this season, and has just 184 plate appearances on the year, but has underperformed as well. Cowser had a nice June, posting an .860 OPS, but he enters the day just 3 for his last 27, and with a .567 OPS over 79 plate appearances in July.
Cowser is still a bat speed dynamo, and his exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate would all still be in the top third of the league if he had enough at bats to qualify. His chase rate has held steady at 25%, but he’s whiffing a bit more than he did last season. Overall his K rate is actually down a bit, from 30.7% in 2024 to 28.8% this season, but that’s still too many strike outs to avoid long slumps. Cowser’s walk rate has also cratered and sits at just 5.4%.
On the bright side, he stole 5 of his 6 bases this season in July, which is super helpful and takes some of the sting out of the rest of his recent slump. His contact chart is also looking a lot better recently.
He hasn’t quite gotten into above average territory, but that looks better than a .207 hitter to me. Baltimore has had a rough season, and will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this deadline, (I’d expect Laureano at least to be moved) but Cowser should have plenty of playing time down the stretch and could be a very useful player if he looks like the June version of himself. I wouldn’t count on a plus batting average, but he could mash 5-10 dingers with similar stole base totals if he remains aggressive. This could be a good buy-low period for Cowser, who is still just 25.
Risers
Coby Mayo, First Base and Third Base, Baltimore Orioles
9% Rotered
Sticking the with O’s we’re finally starting to see Coby Mayo live up to the hype. Mayo looked severely overmatched, striking out 22 times over 41 at bats when he debuted last season. He’s been much better this year, slashing .240/.318/,406 though 107 plate appearances, but he’s been an absolute monster slashing .292/.433/.625 with 2 dingers and a 5:3 walk to strike out ratio over 30 plate appearances in July.
Mayo’s exit velocity is little underwhelming at 88.8 MPH, but his 10.8% barrel rate and 43.8% hard hit portend great things to come. His chase and whiff rates are higher than we’d like at 29.3% and 27.4% respectively, but his overall K rate is nothing to be scared about at just over 20%, and trending better. His process chart, though a smallish sample, is also looking better lately. Look at that line go, just barely starting to get itself above that MLB average.
It’s always great to see a much ballyhooed prospect start to succeed at the MLB level. If Ryan O’Hearn gets moved at the deadline, Mayo could have a clear path to playing everyday. It’s also possible (although I’d not expect it) that Mayo could be traded to bring in some quality pitching as well. Either way, if Mayo has a clear path to playing time, you want in.
This could very well be the last call on Mayo, with his pedigree and minor league track record, his value will skyrocket if he hits well for the remainder of the season. And even if he doesn’t, at least he isn’t Miracle Whip, that stuff is gross.
Joey Loperfido, Outfield, Toronto Blue Jays
1% Rostered
Loperfido didn’t do much after the Jays acquired him at last year’s trade deadline, posting just a .579 OPS over 144 plate appearances. He was better at AAA this year, but his .278/.354/.422 line isn’t all that exciting for a 26 year old at that level. However, he has been on a tear ever since getting promoted, slashing .341/.396/.500 with 2 homers and a steal in just 48 plate appearances.
We only have a very small MLB sample size here, but so far, his underlying metrics definitely do not support his game level performance. So far, Joey has mustered an 88 MPH exit velocity, a barrel rate of 9.1% and a hard hit rate under 40%. These all would be below average rates if Loperfido qualified. His chase rate is pretty bad at over 34%, his whiff rate is less bad at 24.4% and his K rate is tolerable, but also not good at 22.9%.
Loperfido has benefitted from a silly-high .419 BABIP. His xBA is currently at .262, and while expected stats aren’t all that meaningful, that would align rather well with his career .280 mark over five minor league seasons. I think this looks more like a nice hot streak during a period where everything is going well for the Jays than any sort of legitimate breakout.
There is a lot of speculation that Loperfido could be on the move this week as his recent play may make him an attractive deadline target for rebuilding teams. If he does end up on a team where he plays everyday, he could be a useful player in deeper leagues (say, 16 teams and up). But to be honest, I don’t think I would be over the moon if he was the guy my local rooting interest got back in a big deadline move. I just don’t see much upside here, and Loperfido does not look like a cornerstone type player even when he’s on a heater.
Josh Jung, Third Base, Texas Rangers
31% Rostered
A warm welcome back to the elder Jung brother. Josh Jung and his younger brother Jace have both appeared here as fallers this season, and I always love a good redemption arc. Jung has had it rough this season. He dealt with a wrist injury earlier this year and struggled so badly in June, (.158/.208/.221) that he was demoted to AAA where he continued to struggle, posting a .635 OPS over 8 games.
But the 26 year old launched a couple trippers towards the end of his AAA stint and the Rangers saw fit to bring him back up as Jake Burger hit the injured list. Jung has responded by hitting safely in all 7 games since his return to the bigs, slashing .409/.480/.682 with two homers and a 3:6 BB:K ratio in 25 plate appearances. Yes he has a .500 BABIP, but no one expects him to continue hitting over .400 and no one hits .400 with a normal BABIP.
His underlying metrics on the season are not great, but this recent stretch covers less than 10% of his at bats this season, so I’d rather focus on his process than include so much early season noise.
We can see a nice little upswing overall since his recent promotion, but his power output has looked fine all season. His contact ability and decision value have been his issues. So let’s isolate them, and….
Well, dang. I really like Jung and want this to be a legitimate breakout, (I’m heavily invested) but I just do not see it. Not only are both his contact ability and decision value graphs both still below average for MLB hitters, they are both worse looking now than back in June when Jung was batting in the .150s. He’s also still slotted into the bottom third of the order in five of the seven games since his return, for a team with a bottom 10 offense. Sigh.
So it’s another week where I tend to like my Fallers a little bit more than I like my Risers. Enjoy the Trade Deadline, I hope your favorite team gets exactly the player they need and that the Yankees (or whoever) severely over pay for David Bednar. Go Buccos and good luck out there deep leaguers!
