Hello deep leaguers. I hope everyone had a fun trade deadline week. I am still trying to wrap my head around seeing Tommy Pham, Andrew Heaney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa still suiting up for my Pirates every day. Pham has an OPS over 1.000 over the last month, I can’t believe no one was interested in his services. Bailey Falter (who is arbitration eligible) was traded, but Bubba Chandler is still in AAA. I also feel like there is an implicit understanding that when veteran players sign with teams like the Pirates, they will be dealt to contenders if and when the Buccos sell off in July. Even with Skenes pitching every five days, I am having difficulty being excited for the future of Pirate Baseball. But this is DLRF, not my personal soap box, so onto the…
Fallers
Brady House, Third Base, Washington Nationals – 1% Rostered
House appeared here as a riser back in week 16, but any first time home buyer out there knows that the first few months never go as smoothly as they hoped. House is batting just .161 with no homers or steals and just a .322 OPS over the last couple weeks. His average exit velocity was pushing 90 MPH when he was listed as a riser just three weeks ago, but has dropped to 88.4 since then. So, a couple leaky pipes, no big deal.
His strike out rate has held around 25%, which is acceptable when it comes with some power production or a decent walk rate, but this House features neither of those amenities. House has not left the yard since his two dinger day back on July 12th and he hasn’t taken a walk for a full month. His process chart was trending downward last we viewed it, and not much has changed since then.
I’ve included his decision value chart because that really highlights where House has struggled. Decision value is a lot like real estate value to continue the play on House’s surname. The most important things are location, location, and location (timing is important too, but that’s not the adage). And House is clearly swinging at pitches that are located in some sketchy parts of town. The schools there are terrible!
Not every House is move-in ready. Maybe this one is more of a fixer upper. He did slash .304/.353/.519 though 283 AAA plate appearances this year and his still just 22. We should get to see him man the hot corner down the stretch for the Nats and I’m personally pretty interested to see how House adapts over the final couple months of the season, even if I don’t think he’s worth a 30 year mortgage at today’s rates.
Kody Clemens, First, Second and Third Base and Outfield. Minnesota Twins – 2% Rostered
I wanted to make a joke about knowing why he spells his first name with a K, but the Rocket’s kid has a 22.4% strike out rate, which isn’t bad at all, and much better than a lot of the sluggers we look at it in DLRF. Clemens does have prodigious power, as evidenced by his 93.3 MPH average exit velocity and 52.7% hard hit rate. He’s launched 12 homers in just 194 at bats on the year, but his last dinger came way back one July 12th. (How weird is it that House and Clemens both last homered on 6/12?)
Since that last homer, Clemens is batting .239 (better than his season average) but has just a .664 OPS with a couple runs scored and six driven in over nearly 50 at bats. I’m going to drop both his process and contact charts below.
Aaaand that’s exactly what we didn’t expect. At the game level, Clemens average has spiked relative to his season performance, while his power has been lacking for the last few weeks. But on these charts, we see a player making less contact and providing more power. More bluntly, these charts look pretty good.
Clemens should get plenty of run from here on as the Twins dealt away Carlos Correa and placed Byron Buxton on the IL. With his underlying power and barely below average K rate, Clemens has the potential to add some sneaky power to your playoff run. It doesn’t hurt that he can play so many positions either.
Jonathan India, Second Base, Third Base and Outfield, Kansas City Royals – 35% Rostered
I can understand why the Royals like the idea of India as their leadoff hitter, since he recorded a .357 on base percentage over 151 games for the Reds last season. Sadly for Kansas City, India has posted the lowest OBP of his career this year, and has really struggled lately, slashing just .167/.318/.306 over the past couple weeks. He has never been a big power or speed threat, but has reached double digit dingers and stolen bases each of the last two seasons.
The change in ball parks was never going to be beneficial, as India moved from one of the best hitters parks in Cincinnati to one of the worst in Kansas city, and with just 5 homers through 100 games, India’s power production has indeed regressed. He is also 0-4 on the base paths this season after swiping 14 bases in 2023 and 13 last season.
So we aren’t rostering India for the category juice. What he can bring to our fake teams is batting average, on base percentage and runs scored if everything is clicking. India still possesses an elite chase rate, and a very strong K rate under 17%. And his expected batting average is a healthy .266, much higher than his actual .238 mark. He walks enough at 9.8%, but that rate way down from last season when he carried a 12.6% walk rate.
Again, we aren’t investing in India for power, so we’re going to focus on the on-base skills and check out his contact and decision value charts.
First, it’s great to see that both of those skills have remained in “above average” territory since all the way back in May. It’s also good to see that decision value chart trending upward, as that may indicate a rebound in India’s walk rate is on the way. On the other hand, his contact has been slipping for a couple months now.
If both charts were trending upwards, I’d probably suggest trying to get a piece of India as a high floor, run producing utility player. But with his contact rate falling along with his almost complete lack of power and speed, I think the low ceiling outweighs that high floor. Even if he was batting in the .260s, how much value is there leading off for the league’s second lowest scoring team?
Risers
Justin Verlander, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants – 25% Rostered
Thanks to rough outings against the Athletics and Blue Jays, Verlander’s 5.40 ERA in July was the worst earned run average he’s posted in any month this season. However, the 42-year-old hurler has been much better over his last three starts, allowing just one run over 15 innings. He struck 14 and walked seven over those three games, with five of those walks coming in a win @ATL.
In those other two games, the future Hall of Famer struck out 7 while walking only two batters. Of course, those other two games were back-to-back starts against the league’s lowest scoring team, my Pittsburgh Pirates. With just 404 runs scored on the season, the Pirates have scored nearly 20% fewer runs this season than Verlander’s upcoming opponent, the Washington Nationals, who have just the 19th highest scoring offense this season.
In short, I don’t think Verlander has found a fountain of youth, but he did do what he was supposed to against the league’s worst lineup. I’d ride him against the Nats since they aren’t much scarier than the Buccos, but I’d probably avoid starts against any offense in the top half of the league. Verlander has also only completed six innings twice since mid-May, so quality starts look unlikely.
Mike Burrows, Starting Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates – 13% Rostered
Burrows had the worst start of his brief MLB career in Minnesota on July 12th, when he allowed six earned runs on five hits and three walks while recording just four outs. But we know something weird was in the air on July 12, 2025, because that was also the date Brady House and Kody Clemens last homered. Coincidence? Almost certainly, I’m not that crazy…
Since that turn against the Twins, Burrows has made three starts, at home against the suddenly surging White Sox, at home against the Diamondbacks, and on the road against the Giants. The Sox and Giants have offenses in the bottom third of the league, but Arizona is always a tough matchup. Over those three starts, Burrows allowed just three runs and struck out 18 batters while issuing just four walks.
On the season he has a 3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 60 strikeouts to 21 walks over 58 innings. The ERA and WHIP are solid, and would be stellar without that disaster in Minneapolis, and that K:BB just barely under 3:1 is a good indicator of things to come.
This article will be written before his second consecutive start against the Giants, so his next turn as you read this is set for a home matchup vs the Reds. Cincinnati doesn’t hit that well away from GAPB, so I’d be comfortable using or streaming Burrows for that matchup with the potential to keep him around longer. Just don’t expect much run support.
Spencer Horwitz, First and Second Base, Pittsburgh Pirates – 14% Rostered
Horwitz was the Pirates major offseason acquisition. The main piece sent to the Guardians was Luis Ortiz, so this deal looks like it will be a win for the Buccos. He had surgery on his wrist in the spring and missed the first month and a half of the season recovering. He struggled early on, but has been on fire over the last couple weeks, slashing .379/.449/.674 with nine runs, 14 RBI and three of his five dingers on the season coming over that span.
He’s not a huge power threat with just an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity and 41.2% hard hit rate. Horwitz is much more of a plate setter with strong chase and whiff rates. His K rate of 20.8% is a bit higher than it was last season, and his walk rate a bit lower, but both have improved as the season has aged and Horwitz gets further and further from his preseason surgery.
We can see via his process chart that Horwitz has made gains in his contact ability and decision value over the last month, and while his power output has slumped, that can be somewhat attributed to him moving to the leadoff spot lately. Personally I think it’s a great move as the Pirates are severely lacking players able to reach base with any consistency. It’s just a shame Horwitz is one of the league’s slowest players with a sprint speed best described as “base clogging”. Still, I think he’s a better bet to provide offense down the stretch than either India or House. Of the four hitters featured today, Clemens is my favorite to provide useful offense this year.
That’s all for this week. Thanks as always for reading and good luck out there deep leaguers!
