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Deep League Risers and Fallers Week 20

Another Marsian has Landed. It's Marlins Weekly/DLRF Week 20!

Welcome back deep leaguers. We have four weeks of regular season matchups left in public head-to-head leagues. We are also now past the trade deadline for public leagues, and likely private ones as well. This means we are going to shift focus a bit and I will no longer focus on acquiring players for future seasons, unless we’re talking about off season targets. Take a good look at the standings, check out who your future opponents will be and figure out how aggressive you want to be chasing those counting stats, there are going to be a lot of bad streaming options out there.

 

Fallers

 

Austin Wells, Catcher, New York Yankees – 55% Rostered

 

I almost never get to cover Yankees here, as players on the big market teams definitely get their roster percentages boosted. Wells has been a batting average drag all season. He batted .224 in June and that is his high water mark for any month this season. He’s has been good for a few homers and more than 10 RBI per month, but he’s also played less games each month as the season has worn on and has really struggled lately, slashing just .150/.190/.200 with three runs scored and nothing else to mention nearly half way through August.

Wells’ process chart highlights just how unexciting he’s been this season. The downward slope on the far right side is concerning, but not as concerning as Ben Rice, who has been playing catcher more often, at Wells’ expense, opening up the DH spot for Goldschmidt or Stanton.

Rice just started his tenth game of the year at catcher, which means he likely gained catcher eligibility in any league in which he didn’t already qualify. Rice is rostered in just 29% of leagues, roughly half the rate of Wells. I suggest making the switch if you can, otherwise Darren Dingler might be your best bet for an available replacement. At least he won’t drag your batting average down as much.

 

Otto Kemp, First, Second, Third and Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies – 1% Rostered

 

Kemp had his chance to run away with the Phillies’ third base job when Alec Bohm hit the IL back on July 19th. That chance has slipped away, as Kemp has slashed just .212/.276/.423 over 52 at-bats while Bohm has been shelved. Edmundo Sosa has been the preferred option lately, and has been in the starting lineup for nine of the Phillies’ last ten games, while Kemp has only started in half of those same ten contests. Bohm also began a rehab assignment over this past weekend and should be back relatively soon.

For what it’s worth, Kemp did jack three dingers during Bohm’s absence, and has strong exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates. (All three would be in the league’s top third if he qualified), but he’s had issues making consistent contact, as we can see in his chart below.

Even when his contact rate spiked in mid July, it never quite hit the MLB average. His whiff, chase and K rates are all above the dreaded 30% mark. There is always a lot of risk when players swing and miss and strike out as much as Kemp has, and at this point, he looks like a long shot to be of much help for the remainder of 2025, but I still think he’s an intriguing off-season target, as he did carry an OPS over 1.000 through 269 AAA plate appearances and has smacked 18 homers in just over 400 at-bats so far this year. He does need to cut back on those Ks though.

 

Dennis Santana, Closer, Pittsburgh Pirates32% Rostered

 

Does that low roster percentage reflect fantasy managers’ collective indifference to whoever closes for the woeful Buccos? Does it reflect an overall move away from saves as a scored statistic for fantasy baseball? (I hope it’s this one, net saves plus holds for life!) Or is it just a sign that the NFL season is looming and some non-competitive baseball managers are less engaged?

Speaking of non-competitive teams, Dennis Santana was the Pirate’s presumptive closer after David Bednar was dealt to the Yankees. He is the only Bucco to record a save since the deadline, but he’s also allowed seven earned runs in 3.2 innings, taken two losses and blown a save in his four appearances since July 31st. He has as many homers allowed (2) as strikeouts over that same small sample size.

Despite his recent struggles, Santana still has a strong 2.52 ERA, and a mighty fine .92 WHIP on the year. He is one K shy of a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and has allowed just three home runs all year. His ground ball rate is just average, but those ratios are great. His two most utilized pitches, his slider and 95ish MPH four seamer have both graded out as plus offerings. I do think he has the potential to be a solid MLB closer and that the Pirates will use him as such for the rest of the season. If, by chance, he was dropped after his recent disastrous outings, break out that FAAB wallet.

 

Risers

 

Jakob Marsee, Outfield, Miami Marlins – 30% Rostered

 

I honestly expected Marsee’s roster percentage to break 50% before I had the chance to include him here, and to be honest, if he’s available in your league, it either isn’t very deep, or people aren’t paying attention. But NFL preseason does dominate sports media now, so just in case, check and add now before reading even one more word.

Marsee had a disappointing year in the minors in 2024, finishing the year with a .661 OPS over 137 games, but he did steal 51 bases. This year, he fared much better with an .817 OPS in 98 games at AAA, along with 14 dingers and 47 more steals. The big caveat there is his .246 batting average. But since his promotion following Jesus Sanchez’s trade to Houston, Marsee has slashed .419/.538/.742 with one homer, five stolen bases, and an 8:8 K:BB ratio.

Now, that sample is obviously very small so we’ll eschew charts and remember that his rates will assuredly shift, but I’m gonna throw them at you anyway. He’s got an exit velocity over 92 MPH, a 13% barrel rate and a 52.2% hard hit rate. Those would all be elite if he had enough at bats to qualify, but his contact metrics might be even more impressive.

Marsee has only chased at a 10.7% rate, whiffed at a 14.5% clip and struck out in 20.5% of his at bats. His walk rate thus far is also 20.5%. I wouldn’t expect a ton of power, but he did hit 42 dingers in just under 400 minor league games, so 10-15 homer seasons would be reasonable. The key is he also stole a whopping 159 bases over that same span, and has five already in the week and half he’s been in the Majors.

What really appeals to me is the walk rate. So many speedy players rely on slap hits and infield hits to get on base, but without drawing free passes they fail to fill that leadoff role where they could really put that speed to use. But Marsee drew 288 walks over his minor league career, which netted him a .382 on base percentage despite a .239 average.

The Marlins, as it turns out, have a very good leadoff hitter already in Xavier Edwards (readers know I’m a big fan) who is carrying a .365 OBP of his own right now. But it’s not hard to squint and see an exciting Marlins lineup in 2026 or even September 2025 that features Edwards leading off, and Marsee in the two hole with Kyle Stowers (featured way back in week 3) batting third or fourth.

 

Miguel Andujar, Third Base and Outfield, Cincinnati Reds – 4% Rostered

 

I swear the Reds collect corner infield/outfield type players like they’re Pokemon. But they also play in an extreme offensive environment and one of the league’s premier offensive players bats third for them everyday, so as deep league managers we take an interest when a powerful masher like Andujar lands at Great American Ballpark.

Andujar was already having a strong season for the Athletics, slashing .298/.329/.436 with six dingers over 231 plate appearances. He’s been even better since changing his uniform, slashing .368/.500/.632 with a homer and a 4:6 BB:K ratio in 24 plate appearances.

His process chart looks just about identical now as it did earlier this season, and he’s carrying a .500 BABIP in August, so he’ll probably level out a bit, but Andujar was good for the A’s and I expect he’ll continue to be just as good for the Reds. He has only played in six of ten games since being traded, but that includes four consecutive starts in their last four games. If you need some pop at third base or your outfield, Andujar could a great source down the stretch run.

 

Blake Perkins, Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers – 5% Rostered

 

Perkins has been filling in at center field for the Brew Crew while Jackson Chourio is out with a hamstring injury, and has done a fine job of it, slashing .256/.293/.538 with three homers and a stolen base since the start of August. That comes with just a .250 BABIP so, if anything Perkins has been a bit unlucky.

However, the 28 year old has just 13 homers over 591 MLB at bats (roughly one full season’s worth) during his MLB career, and 48 homers over 2500 at bats in the minors. So you are probably looking more at a 10-15 homer per year player than the slugger he’s been this month.

Perkins also has middling exit velocity (89.8 MPH) and unimpressive hard hit and barrel rates that would fall in the league’s bottom third if he had the at-bats to qualify. He also whiffs a ton at 33% and strikes out at more than a 28% clip, which is too much for a player without big power or speed, or a good walk rate.

His process chart is also uninspiring in case you thought I was tempering expectations for a big “but look what he’s doing now!” reveal.

His decision value has been fine, but his contact ability and power output is lagging even with his strong performance as of late. Chances are Perkins will either return to AAA or a bench role when Chourio is healthy, and the Brewers will run with Chourio, Sal Frelick and Isaac Collins (featured week 13) across their outfield.

 

That’s it for week 20, congratulations to everyone who has made it this far. See ya next week, and good luck out there deep leaguers!

 

 

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Sam Lutz

A Pittsburgh native and long suffering Pirate fan, Sam turned to fantasy baseball to give him a reason to follow the sport after July.

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