We really are in the home stretch now. September call-ups are just around the corner, which can cut into starting pitcher innings, since bullpens get some much needed reinforcements. This is mostly important for QS leagues, where we need those three outs in the sixth, but extra bullpen innings can cut into wins and strikeout totals for starters as well. Just something to keep in mind before we get into the…
Fallers
Tommy Edman, Second Base, Short Stop and Outfield, Los Angeles Dodgers – 40% Rostered
Tommy Edman had been a reliable source for double digit homers and 30-ish steals for the past few seasons, but he’s missed most of this year recovering from wrist surgery. After slashing .239/.368/.326 with one homer and one steal over a 14 game (56 plate appearance) rehab assignment, the Dodgers called him up to the big club last week, plugged him into their lineup, and he’s started all six games since.
He has not gotten off to a quick start though, slashing just .227/.261/.273 with three runs, no RBI, a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and one stolen base. He’s registered an 88.1 MPH average exit velocity and has yet to barrel a ball in his miniscule, 23 plate appearance sample. None of that is great, but to be honest, I don’t have much concern about Edman.
No one should have expected much power, both because Edman never packed much punch, and because he was returning from wrist surgery, which can sap the power of any slugger. He wasn’t ever a big on-base guy either, with a career .265 average and .318 on-base percentage, but he does provide speed and has already swiped one bag. Edman also started out batting 9th in his season debut, then up to 8th for a few games, and then he slid all the way up to 5th in order this past Sunday.
So it looks like both the playing time and a spot in the middle of the order could be available, and that’s really the play here. The Dodgers are the 4th highest scoring team in Baseball and in deep leagues, any piece of that pie is worth rostering, tax and tip included. Not to mention that positional eligibility is extra useful late in the season when teams start giving players extra days off. I’m sticking with Edman for now, and would be willing to use some of that FAAB I’ve been hoarding if one of my league mates made a quick drop after his sluggish start.
Ryan O’Hearn, First Base and Outfield, Baltimore Orioles – 32% Rostered
I was concerned about O’Hearn’s playing time following Baltimore’s deadline acquisitions, but so far he’s remained safely entrenched on the strong side of a platoon. It’s his offensive production I should have been concerned about.
O’Hearn slashed just .240/.345/.280 in August. He got on base pretty well, and you could live with a .240 batting average if it came with O’Hearn’s typical power output, but that .280 slugging percentage is really the issue. And this is starting to look like a trend. O’Hearn recorded three homers and an .853 OPS in June, a .782 OPS with two homers in July and just a .625 OPS with the aforementioned zero dingers in August.
We can see on his Process chart that O’Hearn’s contact ability and decision making have remained fairly consistent while his power production has tanked. The good news is that O’Hearn is still a talented hitter. He sits in the top third of the league in exit velocity and hard hit rate. He resides in the top tenth in whiff and strikeout rates and draws plenty of walks. I’m not worried about O’Hearn unless I start to see him lose playing time vs right handed pitchers. This slump too shall pass.
Lane Thomas, Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians – 61% Rostered
By now you know that a player appearing here with such a high roster percentage is a bad sign. Lane Thomas was recently dealt to Cleveland from Washington, where he was batting .253/.331/.407 with eight dingers and a healthy 28 stolen bases over 77 games (341 plate appearances). Since the trade, Thomas is slashing just .137/.229/.192 with zero homers and a couple swipes in 24 games (83 plate appearances).
In “even worse news”; Thomas has seen his playing time slip, as he’s started on the bench for seven out of the last 15 games for the Guardians. Overall, Thomas has carried roughly league average exit velocity and hard hit rates, and he doesn’t whiff much or chase balls out of the zone. But I’m going to post his rolling contact in a second, and fair warning to Guardians fans, it’s scary ugly.
So that’s a pretty dramatic drop off. I think it’s pretty clear from this chart that Thomas was cursed upon being traded from Washington, and that we need to find the source of this contact-sapping horcrux or voodoo doll. Maybe there is a painting somewhere of Thomas batting .350 while the real outfielder suffers. I jest, but seriously, with this drop off in production and playing time, Thomas is a pretty clear drop in just about every format right now.
Risers
Connor Norby, Second Base and Third Base, Miami Marlins – 30% Rostered
Norby is another player who was dealt at this past trade deadline, but he has thrived with his new club. All of the following stats come with a small sample size warning, since Norby played just nine games with Baltimore before being traded, and only seven games with the Marlins since being recalled just last week.
After batting just .188/.188/.406 with the Baltimore Birds, Norby is slashing .345/.367/.690 with a couple dingers and a stolen base in his first 30 plate appearances with the Florida Fish. He was mostly batting fifth until Xavier Edwards (a DLRFavorite) hit the IL, and has since batted leadoff.
While the early returns have been pretty good, Norby has just an 84.8 MPH average exit velocity, a sky high 30.6% strikeout rate, and has drawn just a single walk over his first 62 MLB plate appearances. He did carry a walk rate closer to 10% and a much more acceptable strikeout rate at AAA this season, but he is not without his warts.
I like Norby, and he’s going to get every chance to play down the stretch for his new team. I would be happier if he still had Edwards batting in front of him, and if he walked a bit more, especially if he’s going to leading off for a while. But as a manager dealing with a few injuries at second and third lately, it’s Norbin’ time for me.
JJ Bleday, Outfield, Oakland Athletics – 27% Rostered
The 26-year-old former 4th overall draft pick is having a bit of a breakout campaign for Oakland. He’s been especially hot in August, slashing .253/.341/.493 with five homers, 13 runs scored, 12 RBI and his lone steal of the season. He’s really been powering up, with four of those five dingers coming in the last two weeks.
On the season, Bleday is carrying a below average exit velocity of 88.6 MPH, a league-average 8.2% barrel rate and a hard hit rate just above the league’s bottom quartile. His on base skills look more legitimate than his power rates, as he carries a strikeout rate under 20% and a walk rate above 10%. His process chart, shown below, describes an above average, but inconsistent hitter more than an upwards trend.
We can see Bleday’s decision quality remain fairly consistent and above average throughout the year, but his contact rate dips below average a bit in late July, while his power production was below average until mid June, before spiking for a month, dipping back down, and then surging again recently. Bleday also plays for a bad team that doesn’t score a ton, but occupies a favorable spot in the lineup, batting third behind Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler.
I am going with cautious optimism with regards to Bleday. If his current hot streak can match what he did from early June till mid July, he could be a major asset for fantasy baseball playoffs.
Ramón Laureano, Outfield, Atlanta Braves – 9% Rostered
I did not even realize Laureano played for the Gaurdians this year until I started writing this piece. It did not go well, as the veteran outfielder slashed just .143/.265/.229 in Cleveland. But the Guardians released him, and Laureano signed with the Braves following Ronald Acuña Jr.’s injury, and was promoted after Michael Harris II hit the IL.
Laureano has thrived in Atlanta, slashing .288/.323/.517 with seven homers and a couple steals over 41 games (124 plate appearances). I wouldn’t expect that strong batting average to hold up. Laureano is a career .244 hitter, and he strikes out in one third of his at bats. He whiffs a lot, he chases a lot and he barely walks.
The power is for real though. Lareano has only topped 20 homers in a season once, but that has more to do with him eclipsing 100 games played just twice. He is currently producing a 90.2 MPH average exit velocity, a 42.5% hard hit rate, and a huge, 12.5% barrel rate. He is batting in the middle of the Braves’ lineup and getting plenty of run producing opportunities. If you need some pop in your outfield, there is a good chance Laureano can provide it for you.
The key takeaway this week is the DLRFavorites is a thing I’m gonna do now. Xavier Edwards is the first player to receive this tremendous honor, and I hope he gets back on the base paths soon. Thanks as always for reading and good luck out there Deep Leaguers!
Featured image by Justin Paradis