Hello and welcome to the final Deep League Risers and Fallers of 2026! What a fun time of the year. I saw a playoff matchup come down to an Erik Miller hold on Sunday night. Miller faced three batters. All three reached base, and one would come around to score the tying run, but an out on the bases before Miller was removed was enough to give him a hold. And that’s one of the most fun parts of playing in deeper fantasy leagues. Those late season heroics can come from almost anywhere. We might even find them among our weekly…
Fallers
Troy Melton, Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers – 59% Rostered
I’ll admit I typed Lions first. I didn’t watch a single play from NFL opening weekend, and it’s still incepted its way into my brain. I’m half surprised I haven’t created online gambling accounts in my sleep. Curse you, sports betting app advertisements!
Anyway, this one makes me sad. Melton had a late start to the season thanks to some elbow inflammation, but he was stellar from May through August. His worst month (June) over that span saw him go 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.8 WHIP.
However, it’s really starting to look like Melton has run out of gas. He’s at 110 innings pitched on the campaign, after completing just 45 innings last season. He’s started 3 games in September, but has covered just 13.2 innings with a 7.24 ERA a 1.75 WHIP and a 10:6 K:BB ratio that is far worse than his 90:34 ratio for the season.
I’m a big Melton fan. I love the deep, 6 pitch arsenal, the great extension and the until recently, excellent control. I’d love to see the K rate tick up, but all this is to say that if you can hang on to Melton in your league, I strongly suggest you consider doing so. I don’t trust him against the White Sox this weekend for anything more than a few Ks and poor ratios. I doubt he even pitches 5 innings, and I’m a little skeptical he makes the start. (I’m super skeptical of Sunday starts, especially younger pitchers on non-playoff teams). But if he is able to be kept in your format, he’s not the guy to drop for a streamer if you don’t have to.
Ryan Waldschmidt, Outfield, Arizona Diamondbacks – 3% Rostered
It’s been an up-and-down season for Waldschmidt. He batted .284 in May, but .211 in June, then back to .361 in July. He became a walk machine in August, drawing nine free passes in 92 plate appearances, after drawing just 2 walks over his previous 79 PA. But he’s slumping badly now during our fantasy baseball playoffs. Waldy is slashing just .095/.269/.095 with no homers or steals and an 11:4 K:BB. At least he’s still walking.
Waldschmidt hasn’t shown much power yet. His exit velocity is under 87 MPH, his barrel rate under 7% and his hard-hit rate under 30%. He does have great speed and has been very good at laying off pitches outside of the zone. But he’s whiffed on more than 30% of the pitches he’s offered at, and has struck out in just under 30% of his MLB at-bats.
His process chart highlights his strong decision value. It also highlights his downward-trending contact rates and power output. Waldschmidt carried a .420 OBP over 199 minor league games, and would be an intriguing source of speed and runs if he settled into the top of the order in the future. I don’t think that happens in the next couple weeks, though, and would try to find a hot bat rather than stick with him for now.
Ernie Clement, The Infield, Toronto Blue Jays – 52% Rostered
I don’t normally lead with a visualization, but this one sums things up so well. Clement is basically a Chandler Simpson type player without elite speed. He’s at the bottom of the league in exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate, bat speed, and maybe surprisingly – chase rate. But he’s at the top of the league in whiff and K rate. He swings at everything, makes a ton of contact, and makes opposing defenses work.
The problem with that approach is that major league players are pretty good defenders. Also, this profile usually works best with speedy players that hit a lot of ground balls. Clement’s 70th percentile sprint speed is good, but far from elite. Moreover, he has a below-average ground ball rate and a well-above-average fly ball rate. He has a great air pull %, but with his poor bat speed, he’s popped just 9 homers on the year.
His batting average has declined every month this year, from .302 in April to .205 halfway through September. Sure, that eligibility is helpful for a bench bat, but Clement has been more likely to ding your average than add to your run and RBI totals.
Risers
Victor Mesa Jr, Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays – 22% Rostered
Speaking of unlikely heroes, Victor Mesa Jr. might as well play with his underwear outside of his pants. Mesa had a strong July and even landed in a previous edition of DLRF. But he was slumping in August, hitting just .205 before he landed on the IL with a hamstring injury. Since his return at the beginning of September, he’s mashed to the tune of .450/.500/.800 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 4:4 K:BB ratio.
There’s a lot to like about his profile too. He’s got fantastic bat speed, and above-average Ernie Clement-esque sprint speed. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are both above average, but his 11.4% barrel rate is his strongest underlying power metric. He’s also struck out in less than 20% of his at-bats, despite a poor chase rate. He’s batting right in the middle of the lineup and has a 9-game hitting streak that includes 5 multi-hit games.
He’s almost certainly not going to hit .450 for the rest of the season, but a key takeaway from the chart above is that he had a hot streak similar to his current heater earlier this season. He has had a stretch of playing hero ball already and is hotter than two rats… you get it. If Mesa is available in your league, ride the hot bat.
Christian Koss, Second Base, Third Base, and Short Stop, San Francisco Giants – 7% Rostered
Koss is batting just .229 with a handful of dingers and steals through 166 at-bats on the year. But he’s slashing .326/.383/.535 with three homers and 3 steals in September. Those are almost Victor Mesa Jr. numbers! Koss, however, has none of the exciting underlying rates that Mesa does. We’re talking an 84 MPH average exit velocity, a barrel rate under 5% and a hard-hit rate under 28%. He has a 40% chase rate that is rather unbecoming of a professional hitter, a K rate of nearly 24% and just a 5% walk rate. I don’t like any of that, but he is fast. I don’t like being entirely negative.
I’ll drop the chart, in case you don’t believe me.
Oof, even with his recent surge, there just isn’t anything here to suggest this is more than a brief hot streak. I’m sorry to disappoint any readers who thought Koss was their Clement replacement. The Devers injury (my condolences to Devers rosterers) will really hurt that offense too. Congratulations if Koss helped you out over the last couple of weeks, but don’t expect it to continue.
Richie Palacios. Second Base and Outfield, Tampa Bay Rays – 4% Rostered
Like Koss, Palacios is a player who really hasn’t done much this season up until recently. He’s recorded at least 59 plate appearances every month of the season, but hasn’t really had a full-time gig at any point. His best month until recently was probably May, where he batted .288 with 3 stolen bases. But he’s been on fire in September, slashing .333/.419/.889 with 5 homers and steals over just 27 at-bats.
Also like Koss, there is little in Palacios’ profile to suggest any of this is sustainable. Palacios checks in with an 86 MPH average exit velocity, a 4.3% barrel rate, and a 29% hard-hit rate that all reside in the bottom 20% of the league. On the other hand, Palacios does have legitimate on-base skills. He has both a K and walk rate in the league’s top quartile.
His process chart reinforces the low-power, high-contact profile, but here we see that Palacios has been above the mean for contact rate for nearly the entire season. The five homers he’s already hit this month are impressive, but I would be shocked if Palacios hit even two more over the remainder of the season. It just isn’t really a big part of his game. He does run, though. Despite being the slowest player I covered this week, he has 14 steals on the year.
It’s the end of the year, though, and things get weird in September. Palacios has one of the hottest bats in the league, and he’s my favorite out of the players I covered this week to continue producing. This might be your Clement/Waldschmidt replacement right here.
Well, that’s it for Deep League Risers and Fallers for 2026. I’ve had a great time scouring the fringes of the waiver wire all year. Good luck in the final week, and as always, thanks for reading! See you next year, Deep Leaguers!
