Welcome to week 8 of Deep League Risers and Fallers. We are in between easy framing devices, so I want to do a quick MLB team ranks recap. The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks are the leagues top five scoring offenses. The Tigers are the big surprise there, but they are not the streaming targets they were last year.
On the other end, the Pirates, Rockies, White Sox, Royals and Rangers are the lowest-scoring teams. It is a little surprising to see the Rockies here since their home park boosts scoring so much, but they are the league’s second-lowest-scoring team and have the largest run differential of 150, which is 64 runs worse than the team with the second-biggest gap. I’ll reveal that team at the end of the article, but first, let’s take a look back at our week 4 picks.
Our Week 4 Fallers: Kyren Paris. Michael Toglia, and Jordan Walker
I was pretty worried Paris wasn’t making enough contact to stick in the Majors. He is still in the Bigs but has batted .119 since appearing as a Faller. He has the worst whiff and K rates in the league.
Verdict: Nailed
Toglia has already appeared as a Faller twice, and I was really high on him last season. He is fine at Coors (.291/.348/.532), but terrible on the road .133/.209/.229. So if you have the roster space for a platoon, or can stream him for home stands, he isn’t entirely un-roster-able.
Verdict: Nailed (as a faller, I was wrong before that)
Jordan Walker swings the fastest bat west of the Ohio River, but he rarely connects. He’s batted just .176 since appearing as a Faller and just like the guys above, whiffs and chases and strikes out too much.
Verdict: Nailed
Week 4 Risers: Rhys Hoskins, Andrew Heaney, and Gavin Lux
I liked Hoskins a lot back in week 4 and thought he could be a solid power source without dinging your average too much. He’s batted .308 with a .895 OPS since then. Only two dingers, but that is solid production nonetheless.
Verdict: Nailed
I did not fully buy into Heaney. I did like the change to his pitch mix, but his velocity was lower than where he usually sits. I was gung-ho for his start vs the Angels, (6 shutout innings, 9Ks and a W) and wary of the Cubs (4.2 innings, 4 earned runs). So I got those right. He was also not good vs San Diego but has settled down with 2 OK starts since then, @PHI and vs CIN. He’s a fine option to stream against weak opponents in quality start leagues, just don’t expect any run support.
Verdict: Nailed
Lux is batting .273 with a .333 OBP since being featured here. The problem is that he has zero homers or steals over that time. I expected him to continue to provide a solid batting average and he has, but he has provided almost nothing else. I was hoping the Reds would move him up the lineup (he has a .379 OBP on the season), but alas, despite dropping Matt McLain in the order, they have elected to bat Santiago Espinal and his zero home runs and .326 OBP second. Sigh.
Verdict: Not great, but the average is still there.
Week 8 Fallers:
Tim Elko, First Base, Chicago White Sox – 1% Rostered
Elko was batting .348/.431/.670 with 10 homers in 130 AAA plate appearances before his promotion. His transition to the Majors has not been seamless, as he’s slashing just .167/.200/.417 over his first 24 MLB at-bats, but he does have two long balls already. Beyond those small sample surface stats, Elko has a respectable 90.5 MPH exit velocity and a more than respectable 11.8% barrel rate. His chase rate has been fine at just 25% and his whiff rate has been a totally acceptable 19.6%.
And yet, his strikeout rate is all the way up at 28% and his walk rate barely exists He’s walked just once. He also plays for one of the worst offensive teams in the league and has batted in the bottom third of their lineup. I do think the power could be legitimate, but outside of a few dingers here and there I wouldn’t expect a ton of counting stats and he could be a batting average risk even with his solid chase and whiff rates. Still, I prefer Elko to Matt Mervis right now.
Max Kepler, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies – 4% Rostered
Kepler got hot near the end of April. From April 26-May 3rd, he batted .320 with 4 homers (he has 5 on the season) and a 1.186 OPS. 6 of his 15 RBI came during that week. On the season though, he’s slashing just .221/.304/.383. He has also been on the bench for 3 of Philadelphia’s last six games, all against left-handed starters.
His underlying rates might be the least exciting underlying rates I’ve ever seen. Kepler has a good 49.1% hard-hit rate that sits in the league’s top 20%. Every other metric I’d typically site sits between the 40th and 60th percentiles. They’re just so painfully average and gray. I want deep blue and red lines to look at and think “That’s the issue, the whiffs!” Even his BABIP is boring. It’s a little low at .257 compared to the league average of .289, but Kepler’s career BABIP is .254, so his current mark is completely normal for him.
His recent offensive outburst sticks out like a sore thumb on his process chart.
But you can also see him regressing back to his mean pretty quickly. I really liked the team context for Kepler coming into this season, but the production just hasn’t been there, and I don’t see any reason to tell you to buy low. Otto Kemp is slashing .324/.426/.606 at AAA right now and while he plays infield, he’s on the verge of taking at-bats away from someone on the Phillies MLB roster.
Dustin May, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers – 38% Rostered
I might sound crazy, but May was better when it was April. Seriously though, Dustin May had a 3.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a win in April, but has posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP during the month he was named after. I might not understand how names work. The craziest part of those splits is that May had a 22:12 K:BB rate in April, but a much better 19:5 rate three weeks into May.
Last we saw him, back in 2023, May relied primarily on his sinker and 4 seamer, which combined for 60% of his pitches thrown. Back then he averaged almost 97 MPH on his heater. The 2025 model relies about equally on his sinker and sweeper for 80% of his pitches. His heater is averaging 94.5 MPH and has been used sparingly.
This has not worked out well. May is allowing hard contact more than ever before with a bottom quartile 45% hard-hit rate. His sinker is the worst offender, with a 54% hard-hit rate, while his four-seamer has been more effective at 34%. He does still pitch for the Dodgers though. They score runs and are tied for the 2nd best record in the NL, and that will keep May in the streaming discussion at the very least. I would absolutely not use him against the Diamondbacks tonight, even though he pitched well against them recently, but I’d be happy to roll him out against the Guardians next week. Maybe we’ll get lucky and June will make May look like it’s April again.
Risers
Will Benson, Outfield, Cincinnati Reds – 36% Rostered
Benson was recalled on May 9th and has been one of the best hitters in the Majors since then, slashing .400/.455/1.000 over 9 games. That comes with 5 homers, 11 RBI and a 3:6 BB:K ratio. We’ve seen Benson mash before. He slashed .275/.365/.498 with 15 dingers over 329 plate appearances back in 2023. He followed that up with a dismal 2024, struggling to a .187 batting average over 388 plate appearances, although he did launch 14 dingers and steal 16 bases.
His big issue has been whiffs and strikeouts, as you may have guessed. His whiff and K rates back in 2023 were both over 31%. That’s bad, but we see players with loud skill sets succeed despite high K rates. However, the 2024 version of Benson had whiff and K rates all the way at the bottom of the league, so it is a fine line.
The current Benson only has 34 MLB at-bats this season, but so far his whiff rate is a bit lower (30.1%) than it was in 2023, and his K rate has dropped to 27%. We’ve seen Benson have a lot of success with both of those rates over 31% so I’m not entirely scared away. I would ride him as long as he stays hot and in the starting lineup. He can bat cleanup behind Lux, McLain and Elly once the Reds take my advice on their batting order.
Drake Baldwin, Catcher, Atlanta Braves – 22% Rostered
Drake Balwin is batting .552 with three homers over the last two weeks. The Braves “backup” catcher has a .357/.400/.583 line on the season with 5 dingers to his name. He does not have enough at-bats to qualify for league rankings, but he’s carrying a 93.5 MPH exit velocity, a 12.9% barrel rate, and a hard hit rate over 60%!
But wait, there’s more! He’s also whiffed on less than 20% of his swings and his strike-out rate is a mere 15.6% The only one standing in Drake’s way is Kendrick Sean Murphy. Sean has not been as good at any of those things I just rattled off about Drake as Drake has been. Murphy does have 8 homers in 99 at-bats though. DHing duties are being handled by Marcel Ozuna, so no chance there.
The good news for Mr. Baldwin is that he just received consecutive starts for the first time this season on May 17th and 18th in Boston. This could be a sign of things to come, but even if it isn’t, everything about Drake Baldwin looks great, get in now if you can, talent finds playing time.
Miguel Vargas, Third Base and Outfield, Chicago White Sox – 18% Rostered
Miguel may have finally recovered from the shock of being traded from the Dodgers to the Sox. He managed just a .194 average with a single homer in the first month of the season but has slashed .275/.343/.516 with 5 homers over the first three weeks of May. His Process chart supports the improvement as well.
The chart also suggests that Vargas is more of a contact and on-base hitter than a home run masher, Vargas has below-average exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates. However, his chase and whiff rates, those things that curtail careers, are both in the league’s top 20%. His strikeout rate is under 17% and he walks a healthy amount at 9.2%. We know the White Sox don’t have a good offense, but Vargas does hit in the top half of their lineup, anywhere between leadoff and fifth. So he will get opportunities.
I don’t see a ton of power hidden anywhere, and Vargas won’t steal more than a few bases, but a .275 average absolutely plays and he has a solid skill set to remain in the heart of an otherwise unexciting lineup.
It’s the Orioles! After winning 91 games last year the Orioles have the second worst run differential in the Majors this season, having been outscored by 86 runs as of May 20th.
Thank you for reading, and good luck out there deep leaguers!
