Hello Deep Leaguers! I hope yinz enjoyed rivalry weekend more than I did. My Buccos were swept by their cross-state rivals and lost Ryan O’Hearn to an oblique injury in the process. However the NL Central still does not have a single team with a losing record entering action in the third week of May. I do have one gripe about the rivalry series, though. The Hats.

Both the Phillies and Pirates were wearing dark taupe colored hats, and both teams use a stylized capital letter “P” as their symbol. So when players were on camera, but we could only see their faces, it was hard to know which team I was looking at, and I watch this team almost daily. Imagine how weird it would have been for a more casual fan, just tuning in for the weekend. Alright, that one was really weighing on me. I can climb down from my soapbox and try to figure out why a few guys are scuffling.

 

Fallers

 

Cole Young, Second Base, Seattle Mariners, 17% Rostered

 

Young was a really helpful player for a whole month. He finished April with a .286/.357/.420 line with 3 dingers and a couple of steals. He also racked up 39 combined runs and rbi over 32 games, which was a huge total for someone batting in the bottom third of a lineup. He has not carried that momentum into May, however. Young is slashing just .175/.254/.246 this month with no homers, stolen bases, or runs scored.

Some regression was to be expected. Young has an average hard hit rate, but his exit velocity, hard hit rate, whiff rate, K rate, chase rate and walk rate are all just a bit below their respective MLB averages. Amazingly, of all the underlying rates I just mentioned, only Young’s exit velocity is in the league’s bottom third. Everything else sits just below the mean. Also, except for slightly worse walk and K rates, Young has shown across-the-board growth as a hitter. His process chart looks better now than it did while he was producing better results.

We can see the short-lived late April hump, but Young’s contact ability especially looks a bit better now than it did for nearly all of April. He’s also sporting an unlucky .250 BABIP in May, compared to a pretty fortunate .349 mark last month. I would hold Young through this slow period. I don’t think he’ll give you the counting stats he did for the first month, but double-digit steals and homers with a respectable batting average still looks achievable.

 

Colt Keith, First Base, Second Base, and Third Base, Detroit Tigers, 12% Rostered

 

Keith was one of the first players I wrote about this season and I was over the moon about his year-over-year gains in exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate. He batted .326 in April! But the big batting average came with no homers and just 6 RBI and 14 runs scored. It also came with a clearly unsustainable .411 BABIP.

Flash forward to right now and Keith still has a high BABIP at .333 but he’s slashing just .216/.293/.243 this month. He still hasn’t homered and he’s scored just four times and has yet to drive in a run in May. And that’s really the issue. Despite batting nearly .300 (over for most of the year), Keith has provided very little for fantasy purposes. As you might imagine, he’s struggled with runners in scoring position, batting just .242, with a sub .600 OPS in those situations. But lately, he isn’t hitting in other situations either. His process chart helps illuminate the downward trend.

We can see everything trending downward, but seeing Keith’s decision value and contact ability dip below the mean is devastating, since that’s what he’s done well so far. And even then the fantasy impact was negligible. I was pretty sure we were witnessing a breakout a month ago. Now, I’m barely seeing any upside.

 

Jose Fernandez, First Base and Short Stop, Arizona Diamondbacks, 5% Rostered

Fernandez was our featured player back in week 4. He had hit the ground running during his first few weeks in the majors. At the time, I was unimpressed with his high chase rate, nonexistent walk rate and was disappointed he didn’t attempt more steals despite his elite speed. He had (and still has) only 4 at-bats at AAA and I thought he could probably use more time in the minors.

One month later and I am pleased to report that Fernandez has picked up the stolen base pace. He’s nabbed 4 in 4 attempts in May over 41 plate appearances, after going just 1 for 2 with twice as many plate appearances in April. However, his walk rate remains low and his K rate has stuck around 25%. He chases too much and doesn’t get many barrels.

Fernandez also benefitted from good batted ball luck in April, finishing the month with a .393 BABIP. Speedy players do tend to have higher BABIPS since they beat out more grounders, but as Fernandez’s luck has petered out, his BABIP has dropped to .24o in May. His accompanying line of .162/.225/.189 has been pretty rough.

Fernandez’s process chart displays a lot of variability, and everything on it is trending downward lately. There is talent here. This is still a 22-year-old with good bat speed, great sprint speed and some nice positional eligibility. I would hold in dynasty formats, but I think he could benefit from time at AAA, and if Pavin Smith ever makes it back, I expect Fernandez heads down.

 

 

Risers

 

Gavin Sheets, First Base and Outfield, San Diego Padres, 32% Rostered

Seattle fans were helping Sheets pack his bags Sunday afternoon after the slugger finished the weekend series 6 for 8 with 3 homers, 4 runs scored, 5 driven in, and a stolen base as the Pads swept the Mariners. Sheets is up to 5 homers already in May after slugging 4 in April and his recent surge has his season line at .256/.333/.543 with 9 homers, 3 steals (a new career best!) and 40 combined runs and RBI.

Sheets had a late career breakout last season after leaving Chicago for the sunny shores of San Diego. He improved his barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity and K rate and went on to set career highs in average, homers, RBI, OPS, everything. Sheets has maintained all that growth and even pushed his barrel up a bit further. He still chases pitches out of the zone at an elevated rate, but that’s the only metric where Sheets comes in below the league average.

I’ll spare you from another process chart, because it just reinforces what I’ve already stated. Sheet’s chase rate will likely prevent him from being a plus batting average contributor, but he’s become a legitimate power source, and the increase in stolen bases is a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one. There is a good chance Sheets can slug 25-30 homers this year with a 250ish average. I would definitely add him where possible and even toss an offer out there if I thought I could swing a deal.

 

Carson Benge, Outfield, New York Mets, 24% Rostered

The Met’s rookie outfielder got off to a slow start, slashing just .189/.247/.278 in April. He had some bad batted ball luck with a .231 BABIP, but he still helped out with a couple of dingers and 6 steals in 6 attempts. He’s been rolling in May, though, with a .350/409/.483 line and some much better luck with a .400 BABIP.

I’ve mentioned that speedy players often come with above-average BABIPs and Benge fits that description with his 28.4 feet/second sprint speed. He’s also posted slightly above average hard hit rates and exit velocities as well as strong chase, whiff and K rates. His process chart supports his improved performance too.

Now that’s what we like to see. Everything is moving the right direction. The Mets have taken notice, too, and Benge has been leading off for the last 7 games. I don’t think we’ll see big power from Benge this season. Plan for maybe 12-15 homers and you won’t be disappointed, but he’s up to 8 steals already and with the move to the leadoff spot, 30 seems like an achievable total. He should probably be rostered in leagues of all sizes from here on out. Get him if you can. I’m just waiting for his inevitable appearance on “Benging with Babish.”

 

Keibert Ruiz, Catcher, Washington Nationals, 5% Rostered

There are a lot of fantasy teams with Cal Raleigh, Ryan Jeffers, or Drake Baldwin-sized holes at their catcher positions right now. Keibert Ruiz is slashing .333/.343/.788 with 3 homers, 7 runs scored, and 12 RBI over just nine games in May. Ruiz has been a high swing rate, lots of contact, low walk rate player for his whole career and that doesn’t appear likely to change any time soon. He sports elite, or near elite whiff and K rates, but also bottom of the league chase and walk rates.

This approach has given us one pretty useful season – back in 2023, when Ruiz set career highs with 18 homers and 67 RBI. Ruiz is still swinging a lot, but the quality of contact this year far outpaces what he’s done in the past. His 89.6 MPH exit velocity is a full 3 MPH higher than his mark last season and 4 MPH better than his 2024 mark. Likewise, his 6.6% barrel rate is triple his 2025 barrel rate, and his 40% hard hit dwarfs his 30% mark from last season. None of these rates is impressive on its own, but those are huge gains. Ruiz has seen his whiff and K rates climb a bit with his new approach, but both rates are still excellent.

We can see on his charts that while his contact rate is dipping, it remains well above the league average. Meanwhile, on his Power chart, we can see that his power output remains below average, but has been trending up sharply since the calendar flipped.

Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that the Nationals are the highest scoring team in Major League Baseball so far? Silly me. In deep leagues, especially 16-teamers or larger, nabbing any piece you can of high-scoring offenses is usually a good plan. I’m not going to go out on a limb and suggest Ruiz is your long-term answer behind the dish, but I do think he’s a great Cal replacement for right now, with a chance to offer more upside than you might expect.

 

That’s it for week 9. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there, deep leaguers!