Happy Friday! Today, we have a 14-game slate that kicks off at 7:05 pm EST, with weather possibly impacting the MIN@NYY game. However, as of right now any rain looks like it’ll stop ahead of the game and at worst give us a delay. As far as the slate is concerned, loads of viable arms. So, target some stacks to run up the DFS point totals and try to find the cheaper SPs to optimize your scores. As always, keep a closer eye at lock time for lineup oddities. Good luck!
Implied Run Totals
There are quite a few big totals out there, four teams carry (NYY, ATL, TOR, and COL) an Implied Run Total (IRT) over six. Not to mention, four teams (BOS, CLE, SD, and LAD) showcase a 5.0 or greater implied run total. What does that mean? Roster% will be spread out over the field, which can lead to a very good offense with fewer people on it. My suggestion is to try to find the team you think fewer people will play that can score a lot of runs and go that way. I am going to give three solid suggestions in the stack section.
My first tier or the SPs I would use in all cash games are Walker Buehler, Chris Sale, and Robbie Ray. I have no problem looking past Sale’s lack of innings pitched after watching his first start. It looked like vintage Sale, and at 90-plus pitches, I am in. Also, don’t let the chart mislead you too much when you’re considering Ray. The Tigers only have 73 plate appearances against LHP in the last two weeks; call it a small sample. Last, Buehler got an extra day’s rest and should be poised to keep up his 2021 success. In summation, all three have massive K upside and have favorable matchups.
The second tier is easily the most volatile of the bunch. Lucas Giolito and Blake Snell have been a headache at times and masterful the next. However, both are facing teams that have plenty of swing-and-miss in the profiles that keep me interested in GPP formats. To be honest, Snell is so under-priced on DraftKings he will be rostered in many GPP lineups. So, I tend to want to lean Giolito to get a little different. Remember, both could blow up so why not take the one no one will roster?
My last tier is two arms that could outperform the entire group. Rarely do I like using Max Fried because at times he relies too much on the ground ball to induce outs. However, the strikeouts have been there, and lately, the Orioles look lost against southpaws. His tier partner, Lance McCullers is more my style. Big K upside and when his command is there, look out! Although Seattle isn’t the pushover it once was, so I am slightly skeptical. Both of these would be large fields GPP plays for me.
With a full 14-game slate, I would have expected more viable stacks than I found. There are quite a few more one-offs and secondary stacks, but let’s keep it to these three. Try and stray from the Coors Field game, unless you want to fill your catcher position.
- This is a potent offense before you give them an extra bat in the lineup because the game is in an AL park. Furthermore, that park is Camden Yards, which is incredibly hitter-friendly. Also, they get a fairly weak opponent on the mound today, Keegan Akin. He has faired well vs. left-handed bats but righties are demolishing him, so I’m fading Freddie Freeman. Lastly, Atlanta is on the most expensive side, but it will be worth it to stack them. Core stack targets: Ozzie Albies, Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud.
- Let’s start with their matchup against Matt Moore, who hasn’t been terrible. Instead, he’s striking out right-handed bats at a 22% clip but is getting hit much harder(.160 ISO vs. LHH, .260 ISO vs. RHH). Outside of Tatis Jr, the rest of the lineup comes at a fairly nice discount and allows you to pay up at SP. Also, fade Manny Machado today as he has struggled vs. LHP. Core stack targets: Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola.
- First, the matchup is against a somewhat unknown SP. So, expectations are slightly out the window there. Turn it over to the bats, the Yankees are absolutely loaded, and a 6.43 implied run total backs it up. However, who do we decide which to stack? I would focus strictly on the power aspect and look for players with high ISOs vs. LHP. Core stack targets: Joey Gallo, Gary Sánchez, Rougned Odor, and Aaron Judge.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.
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