DFS Daily Breakdown – August 8

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Both DraftKings and FanDuel feature 10-game main slates starting at 1:05. As of this writing, there’s a chance of rain in New York for the Yankees/Mariners game, but it never gets above a 20% chance, so the game should be good to go. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We have five teams with an implied total below 4.0 runs, with three additional teams below 4.4 runs. That gives us lots of options to choose from for our starting pitchers. Stacks-wise, two teams stand out from the rest as the Rays and Reds have totals north of 5.9. They’re likely our focus for our main stacks, but there are an additional six teams at a 5.0 total or above. Lots of options on both fronts today. Let’s take a look at our pitching options to see if we can get anyone to pop for our cash game lineups.


Starting Pitchers


There are a lot of names and stats to get to in both the pitching and hitting sections. I’ll do my best to break out what I’m planning on doing, but if you have any questions, don’t be afraid to reach out! I’m also going to try something new to see if we can identify teams on an upward or downward trend. Let’s break down the matchups:

Pitching Matchups

As you can see, most of these offenses are in a downward trend. If we only looked at the Nationals over the last 30 days, we would’ve thought them to be a really tough matchup for Max Fried ($8,800 DK, $8,000 FD). However, they’ve struggled mightily of late, leaving Fried in consideration to be one of our starters. Unless you need some extreme value, I’m eliminating Jon Lester ($6,100 DK, $6,400 FD) and Zach Plesac ($8,400 DK, $7,200 FD) from cash game considerations. The lack of strikeout upside is just too prevalent.

When looking at the rest of our options, I’m likely using one of the higher-end options – Zack Wheeler ($10,400 DK, $10,700 FD), Lance McCullers ($10,000 DK, $9,800 FD), Tyler Mahle ($9,800 DK, $8,400 FD) with Fried as my SP2. Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,400 DK, $9,300 FD) is more of a sneaky GPP play, as I think people will see the Boston matchup and avoid him. With J.D. Martinez on the COVID list, this is a much different lineup. In cash games, I’d rather pivot down to Fried or up to one of our most expensive options.

If you’re feeling frisky, feel free to throw Luis Gil ($6,500 DK, $7,100 FD) into a GPP lineup. He has the strikeout upside, but the match with a feisty Mariners lineup isn’t my favorite spot.


Hitter Stacks


I’m going to take a similar approach in looking at our hitting options, trying to pick out the teams on an upward trend. Let’s take a look at the teams that have implied totals north of 5.0 runs to see if any of them pop:

Hitting Matchups

I love when we can just eliminate options off the bat. Both the Yankees and Astros are on a downward trend and they have the toughest matchups from our table. Additionally, Cleveland and Atlanta have both been pretty terrible of late. That leaves the Reds, Rays, Cardinals, and Blue Jays as our main targets.

The Reds have some really interesting values in Nick Castellanos ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD) and Kyle Farmer ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD). I would love to get Jesse Winker ($5,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Joey Votto ($5,800 DK, $4,100 FD), and/or Jonathan India ($4,800 DK, $3,700 FD) into my lineup, but it’s unlikely that we’ll be able to fit that pricy trio.

The Rays are definitely a step down from the Reds, albeit with more affordable options at the top. Nelson Cruz ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD), Brandon Lowe ($5,600 DK, $3,300 FD), and Austin Meadows ($5,300 DK, $3,800 FD) look really nice, but this lineup took a hit with Randy Arozarena hitting the COVID list. The Rays also don’t have the value bats that the Reds do, with Joey Wendle ($4,300 DK, $2,500 FD) being the lone cheaper bat that I have my eye on.

I love the Blue Jays, but today I’m planning on prioritizing the Reds over them. That will likely make Toronto a nice GPP option as their expensive bats should go lower rostered. Corey Dickerson ($3,200 DK, $2,000 FD) remains underpriced and is a really nice value play and would be a nice one-off to help save salary.

Finally, the Cardinals have some really decent value, with Paul Goldschmidt ($5,200 DK, $3,600 FD) and Nolan Arenado ($5,200 DK, $3,600 FD) being the only pricey bats in this lineup. Everyone else on the Cardinals is priced below $3,700 making them the target team for value. My favorite plays are Dylan Carlson ($3,100 DK, $3,400 FD) and Tyler O’Neill ($3,400 DK, $3,500 FD).


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate:

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Cash Game Lineup

A pivot I was considering was Goldschmidt and India instead of Votto and Edman. You’ll have to pay down at catcher and I don’t hate that, but I’d rather know what catchers are starting before making that decision.

Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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