DFS Daily Breakdown – June 13

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature 11 game main slates starting at 1:05. As of this writing, there is no precipitation in the forecast. We have a pair of pricy aces on the bump today in really good spots. Shane Bieber faces the Mariners, while Carlos Rodón gets the Tigers. I’m most likely locking in one of them, but which one? Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!


Implied Run Totals


As of this writing, we have all lines in and reporting. There are six teams with implied run totals above 4.9. On the flip side of things, there are also six teams projected to score less than 4.0 runs. The good news is that there appear to be plenty of options for us to attack. The bad news is this is going to be a long-winded article. We’ll go through some starting pitchers for both cash and GPPs, then we’ll check out our main stacks before diving into some value plays.


Starting Pitchers


As I mentioned in the intro, Shane Bieber ($11,000 DK, $12,000 FD) and Carlos Rodón ($10,200 DK, $10,500 FD) are my horses. If you’re forcing me into choosing just one as my favorite, I’m going to save a little cash with Rodón. Don’t mistake my cheapness for weakness though. Not only has Rodón been just as good a Bieber this year, in my opinion, he also has the better matchup. Here’s the tale of the tape for the Mariners versus the Tigers:


Mariners Versus Tigers – Who’s The Worst?


We’re kind of splitting hairs as both of these teams have been bad, but across the board, the Tigers have been worse than the Mariners. The other higher-priced pitchers on the slate are Aaron Nola ($9,600 DK, $8,100 FD), Chris Paddack ($9,400 DK, $7,000 FD), and Pablo López ($8,700 DK, $8,700 FD) but all three have tough matchups against the Yankees, Mets, and Braves, respectively. Paddack and López both have matchups against teams with implied run totals below 4.0 runs, making them GPP options for me. In my opinion, people will see their matchup and figure out a way to get up to Bieber/Rodón or they’ll pivot down to Adrian Houser ($8,300 DK, $7,400 FD)

Speaking of Houser, he’s looking to be my main contender for my SP2 as he gets a prime matchup against the Pirates. Since the return of Ke’Bryan Hayes on June 3rd, the Pirates have not been a complete pushover, but their 91 wRC+ and .147 isolated slugging still rank in the bottom third of the league. Houser has been in good form, allowing just two earned runs over his last 15.1 innings pitched.

If you need a legit cheap option, look no further than Braves’ lefty, Drew Smyly ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD). The Braves take on the Marlins, who have really struggled against lefties of late. Over their last 30 days, they’ve struck out at a 32.7% clip, while ranking in the bottom three of isolated slugging and wRC+ against lefties. For his part, Smyly has been a little up and down this year but has flashed some strikeout upside. At his deep discounted price, Smyly will likely be my SP2 in places that I’m looking to pay down from Houser.

The final pitcher that has a matchup against a team with an implied run total south of 4.0 is Michael Wacha ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD) who faces the Orioles. While the matchup definitely looks juicy, the Rays have been limiting Wacha’s exposure over his last five appearances. Since May 2nd, Wacha has reached 3.0 innings pitched just once and has thrown just 12 innings total. That makes Wacha almost unplayable.


Hitter Stacks


As I mentioned earlier, there are six teams with implied run totals of 4.9 or above – White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros, Brewers, and Reds. There are the teams that I want to stick to for my main stack. Let’s break down the matchups and see if any of them stand out more than the others:


Matchups Over Their Last 30 Days


One of these things is not like the other, one of these things is bad. Right off the bat, I’m eliminating the Red Sox from my cash stacks. I’m all about stacking them in a GPP because we know Toronto lefty, Robbie Ray has had a history of being wild and is prone to a blow-up. I also think I’m going to designate the Brewers as a GPP stack. The power has been there of late, but they haven’t strung along hits like the other teams have, making them a little boom/bust. That leaves the White Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, and Reds.

People are going to think I’m from the “South Side” of Chicago after reading this because I love the White Sox today. Rodón is my favorite pitcher and the White Sox is my favorite stack. Here’s the deal, it’s easy for me to sit back and say, “stack these four really expensive bats”, but that’s not helpful. What is helpful is when my favorite stack includes hitters at the top of the lineup that are also salary savers. That’s what we have with the White Sox today. Leury García ($3,300 DK, $2,100 FD) and Brian Goodwin ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD) are projected to hit at the top of the lineup. That allows you to get the middle of the order into your lineup – José Abreu ($5,300 DK, $3,300 FD), Yoán Moncada ($5,100 DK, $3,100 FD), and Yasmani Grandal ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD). The Tigers are rolling out a bullpen game, starting with Kyle Funkhouser.

The Astros are similar to the White Sox in that they have a couple of salary savers in their stack. Michael Brantley ($3,200 DK, $3,000 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($4,100 DK, $3,600 FD), and Yuli Gurriel ($4,200 DK, $3,300 FD) are all pretty reasonable on DraftKings (Brantley is criminally underpriced) and can be combined with Jose Altuve ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD) and Alex Bregman ($5,300 DK, $3,600 FD) for a full-stack. The Astros face Michael Pineda, who has been pretty decent this year. He has been prone to the occasional blow-up and has gotten a little lucky this year allowing a .245 BABIP and sporting a 78.8% left on base rate.

The Blue Jays don’t quite have as nice of values towards the top but make up for it in terms of the matchup. Martín Pérez will be on the bump for the Red Sox, pitting a lefty against a lineup that is projected to have eight right-handed batters. Marcus Semien ($5,100 DK, $3,300 FD), Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK, $3,600 FD), and Vlad Guerrero, Jr. ($5,000 DK, $4,300 FD) are all priced up pretty well, but Teoscar Hernández ($4,300 DK, $2,800 FD) and Randal Grichuk ($3,900 DK, $2,500 FD) provide a little relief. If you’re in the “punt catcher” category, Riley Adams ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD) is projected to start and is min-priced on both sites.

Finally, the Reds get a matchup with Antonio Senzatela, however, in a shocking turn of events, the Reds have the least amount of value in their stack. Tyler Naquin ($3,800 DK, $2,700 FD) is the lone bat in the top half of the order that is priced below $4,600 and the only other value comes from the seven and eight hitters. That makes the Reds a GPP stack for me, but feel free to use Nick Castellanos ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD) as a one-off if you have the salary.


Value Hitters


Finally, here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned in the stacks that I noticed when combing through the lineups:


Value Bats


Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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