We’ve got another short Thursday slate that begins at 1:05 PM, with the Phillies hosting Atlanta, and includes the late afternoon game between the Padres and Giants.
Today’s SPs and 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious about its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
The Padres are modest road favorites (-122) as they finish their four-game series against the Giants. Meanwhile, Blake Snell is coming off one of his best starts of the year — a dozen strikeouts against his former team, the Rays. That’s two starts in a row with a dozen strikeouts and a CSW% over 40%. Snell is about as volatile as any SP, but it definitely looks like he’s trending in the right direction. He’ll face a Giants that is eighth overall in team wOBA. Working in his favor, the Giants strike out at a 25.7% clip against LHP, the fifth-highest in baseball. Still, it feels kind of scary going after Snell at this price point, doesn’t it?
Last night’s Phillies game was postponed, pushing Aaron Nola’s start to today. Despite allowing four earned runs his last time out against the D-Backs, Nola earned a 5.53 PLV, his second-best performance by PLV all season. Overall, it’s been a weird season for Nola. His strikeout rate is down to 24.4%, the lowest since his rookie season. However, his 2.72 PLA is the ninth-lowest among starters, with at least 1,200 pitches thrown, giving at least some hope that his 4.66 ERA might be headed down. Today he’ll face a stiff test against an Atlanta lineup that has been the best in baseball with a .352 wOBA.
No secret that CLE and OAK have been teams to stream SP against all year. On FanDuel, JP Sears and Logan Allen have almost the exact same salary, which probably makes Sears more of a tournament target, given that Cleveland is a massive home favorite (-184). On DraftKings, though, Sears is a very interesting SP 2 at $6,800.
Six earned runs against the Tigers? Say it ain’t so, Joe. In all seriousness, Joe Ryan looked pretty decent in his latest start (seven Ks, 30.3% CSW) Yes, his matchup against Boston isn’t great given that they have the fourth-lowest K rate against RHP. Still, I’d put him ahead of Snell and Nola at the top.
Bats
The D-Backs are the top team of the slate with an implied total well north of five runs. You don’t need me to give you any reason to play Corbin Carroll against a shaky right-hander like Jake Irvin. And then there is Ketel Marte, whose .864 OPS trails only Luis Arraez among qualified 2B. Lefties have really hurt Irvin (.900 OPS allowed), so Alek Thomas, who has shown some intriguing raw power, is an interesting punt.
On the other side of the game, the Nats have been decent against lefties (.328 team wOBA, 13th), so they’re definitely on the radar against Tommy Henry. Keibert Ruiz, Jeimer Candelario, Joey Meneses, and the leadoff man Lane Thomas all seem like decent options to mix and match with.
There’s at least a decent chance that Alex Wood turns into a viable SP for us to consider down the line, but it looks like he’s still trying to put it together. In the meantime, he’s allowed a .362 wOBA to righties, putting Fernando Tatis Jr. on the board as a top target even though Oracle Park isn’t a great place to hit. Manny Machado is posting the lowest OPS of his career, so he seems a little overpriced on DK ($5,200). But he’s an interesting option on FD ($2,900), as is Gary Sánchez ($2,800).
On the other side, knowing how volatile Snell is, the Giants could be an interesting team to consider if you want to roll the dice on the bad version of Snell showing up. Rookie Luis Matos is a punt to consider in that case.
The Twins have an implied total of over five runs. They’ll face the righty Justin Garza, who will operate as an opener. Edouard Julien has struck out a ton, but he’s shown some pop, and he’ll have the platoon advantage for however long Garza stays in. Like Machado, Carlos Correa is in the middle of the worst season of his career so far, but he’s cheap on FD ($2,900).
I’m a fan of JP Sears, so I kind of want to ignore the Guardians having an implied total of just under five runs. Still, Sears has given up home runs, and the A’s have given him a pretty quick hook at times, so there’s certainly a way for the Guardians to do damage. Josh Bell is at least very cheap if you’re looking for a punt.
Bryce Elder comes in with a flashy 2.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But his below-average 4.88 PLV makes his great results look a little off, so I like the Phillies as a contrarian stack, or at the very least, the two big lefty bats Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.