Slate Details
FanDuel/DraftKings – Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching
Do you like aces? We got aces.
I have a suspicion there will be plenty of paths to pitching success tonight. There are quite a few interesting names to choose from though all of them are priced relatively high. The difference in cost between the No. 1 pitcher on the list and the No. 10 is not as extreme as usual.
If you’re the type that prefers to save money with cheap pitchers, you’ll likely have to wade into the muck at the bottom of the barrel. If you like to go big from the mound, then today is your lucky day.
There’s no doubt that it has been a down year for Corbin Burnes, but the Cy Young winner has done enough over the past three seasons to prove he’s one of the best in the game. He came out of the All-Star break looking to stake that claim with two shutouts and back-to-back games with double-digit strikeouts.
I see this as the start of a big second half for Burnes and Cincinnati is his next victim.
Blake Snell is another player coming off a good start… actually, make that 11 good starts. Snell has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May 19. He’s only allowed five earned runs total in that span while recording double-digit strikeouts five times.
Of course, it’s my duty to warn you that he’s also averaging nearly 3 walks per game, including 7 his last time out against Toronto. But this is no regular hot streak. This is a long pattern of sustained success covering over half of the season to date. I wouldn’t be shy about playing him tonight vs. Pittsburgh.
George Kirby gets a second straight start against the Minnesota Twins. He roughed them up last week, allowing just four hits and no walks over seven shutout innings. He added 10 strikeouts for good measure. I don’t see any reason he can’t repeat that performance. It’s been a breakout year Kirby and that ride should continue tonight.
Pablo López was on the other side of that game and also fared well. He limited Seattle to two earned runs on six hits and two walks and seven strikeouts over five innings. Hopefully, he can last a bit longer this time out, but it seems like Minnesota has been easing the workload on his arm since his complete game shutout against Kansas City back on July 5.
We’re starting to see vintage Justin Verlander creep back out of the shadows after a rocky start to the season. He’s given up just six earned runs total over his last five starts to the tune of a 1.74 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The command is still a little wonky (six walks against the Dodgers?), but that’s an issue I expect a player like Verlander to rein in. The Yankees can be a tough offense but are less so without Aaron Judge.
Based on matchups alone, it’s worth giving a look at Aaron Civale (at CLE) and Alex Cobb (vs OAK). Matchups aren’t everything of course (you shouldn’t consider starting Austin Gomber, for example), but in this case, we have two pitchers who are streaming options at worst or valuable starters at their best.
Civale has given up more than two earned runs just once since coming back from injury in June though he’s had an issue getting deep into games. Cobb is a bit more of a risk with some inconsistent results lately, but he has a 3.15 ERA overall and Oakland is a great matchup for anybody.
Hitting
Julio Urías looked to be turning a corner after back-to-back shutouts, but then he allowed eight earned runs last week against Baltimore. I still don’t trust him.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has picked up his game recently with five home runs in the last five days. Brandon Belt is on a similar wavelength, though he is considerably cheaper, with a pair of homers during a five-game hitting streak. Matt Chapman also homered yesterday and is the type of player to go off on a binge.
Chris Bassitt pitches on the other side for Toronto. In general, he’s been solid this season and even better lately with a 2.57 ERA over his past five starts. The Dodgers are scary right now though.
Freddie Freeman is 15-for-29 with three home runs in the past week, Max Muncy is in the midst of one of his typical power booms with four HR in the past five games, and J.D. Martinez has five home runs and 17 RBI this month even while nursing a sore hamstring. A cheap option is David Peralta, who is .300/.417/.700 vs. Bassitt in his career.
Andrew Abbott is off to a great start in his MLB career with the Reds, but he has lived on a bit of good fortune. Despite a 2.10 ERA, he has a 3.44 xERA and 4.62 xFIP. You can continue to overpay for a pitcher with a .192 BABIP, but the smart money is to keep him at arm’s length.
Milwaukee tagged Abbott for six earned runs in his final start before the All-Star break and they’ll take another shot at him tonight. Willy Adames went 2-for-5 with a home run and three RBI in that game and generally fares well against lefties.
Rookie Joey Wiemer is almost an instant start considering his cheap price tag and his .272/.306/.580 slash against lefties. He also tagged Abbott for an HR the last time out. I also like Owen Miller and Christian Yelich as final options to fill out a lineup.
The Rangers plan to use Cody Bradford as an opener against Houston after skipping Nathan Eovaldi’s spot in the rotation. Bradford has a 4.78 ERA this season in Texas. I’m willing to pay up a bit to get Kyle Tucker, who is on a 10-game hitting streak with four home runs, 12 RBI, 10 runs, and three stolen bases.
Chas McCormick has cooled down somewhat from his torrid start to the month, but he also had a home run and six RBI last night, so there’s still something there. Alex Bregman quietly continues to just hit and hit and hit. He’s up to .276/.337/.487 this month with four home runs since July 16.
Merrill Kelly is coming off the IL with a leg injury to make his first start since June 24. Overall, he’s had a strong season, but he was starting to show some weariness before the injury with a 4.70 ERA in his last four starts. I have no idea which version of Kelly we’ll see, but I tend to fade players coming back after long absences.
Nolan Arenado is the top name to consider. He is 13-for-33 with 13 RBI in the past week. Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan also project well.
I’m not too excited about Steven Matz and his 4.67 ERA on the other side of the diamond either. Ketel Marte is hitting the ball really well lately and shines against southpaws with a .311/.393/.485 slash this season. Stay away from Corbin Carroll. He’ll be a popular pick for a lot of managers and he’s still struggling with lefties.
The Zack Greinke reunion tour in Kansas City continues to be a disaster. To make matters worse, the veteran is nursing a shoulder injury. He has a 5.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and is unlikely to pitch very deep into tonight’s game vs. the Guardians, who are fighting just behind Minnesota for the lead in the AL Central.
Steven Kwan is hitting .340 since the break, Josh Bell is on a six-game hitting streak with a pair of homers, and Josh Naylor has dominated in July with a slash of .348/.377/.636, five HR, 18 RBI, and 11 runs.
Also, find a way to get Austin Riley in your lineup. Boston has not revealed their starter for tonight’s game, but I’m not sure it matters much. Since July 18, Riley is 10-for-25 with six home runs, 16 RBI, and nine runs scored.