Given a healthy number of games for both early/main slates, the early publication of this article will feature early content and the main slate content will follow in a later update during the day.
DraftKings – Early slate (5 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (8 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
FanDuel – Early Only slate (6 games) – starts 3:07 PM EDT; Main slate (8 games) – starts 7:10 PM EDT.
HOU@DET is not on either slate on either site.
LAD@BOS is the top run-producing game of the day with winds in and to the right, but Fenway is still generous with XBH.
KC@SEA gets the rare HR bump with the warmer temps during the day game.
ATL@SF has winds out to center, but the park will still favor XBH while limiting HRs.
NYY@TB & WAS@MIA are both considered pitcher-friendly parks.
CHC@PIT is the most hitting-friendly game of the main slate, with winds to right, but the park favors XBH over HRs.
CIN@ARI also favors XBHs.
The best potential for HRs is STL@PHI, despite the wind blowing in and to the right.
TEX@MIN has winds blowing in, which may favor pitchers.
The CLE@TOR game is featured only on the Early FD slate. Both pitchers have respectable K & PLV rates, but neither CLE or TOR strike out enough as a team vs L pitching to probably give them enough upside as single pitcher pivots on FD.
Eury Pérez feels like the safest all-around – he dominated the Dodgers in his last start, and may be settling into the stud arm we saw before he was sent back down to the minors to limit his innings. Yes, the Nats took it to the Marlins yesterday, but most of that damage was done vs two Ls, and the Nats are generally less of a threat on the road vs a R. Eury should be safe for all formats.
Tyler Glasnow had what could only be called a freaky performance in his last start vs LAA- he got singled out all over the place and then started giving up hard contact to Rs after his ER count had already gone over his usual amount. He hadn’t allowed that many runs in two months, and then the Rays got revenge with 18 runs in the second game of the DH. The Yankees aren’t featuring many Ls in the lineup lately which could cause some issues if the bad reverse split Glasnow shows up again – but the Rays are at home and it still seems like the Yankees can’t put back-to-back good games together meaning he should bounce back in this game. Definitely an SP1 lock for cash, but there is a decent case to be made to pivot off him for tournaments if you want to get a little different.
Julio Urías has been pretty good over the past month, with a solid K rate to Rs and a 50% GB contact rate to go with it. Fenway can be a tough place to pitch, but he also strikes Ls out at almost a 33% rate with a 58% GB contact rate, so with BOS still rolling out a balanced lineup even vs L pitching, Urías has the stats that suggest he can survive this matchup. He’s a viable SP2 for all formats.
Lots of narratives at play for this series with Kiké Hernández & Mookie Betts returning to BOS, and Justin Turner playing his former team. Unfortunately for James Paxton, he has the second worst PLV rating on the slate vs Rs, and it’s the best-hitting environment of the day. Paxton is still mainly a GB contact pitcher, but his barrel rate has been increasing vs Rs, and vs a team like the Dodgers, that spells p-a-i-n.
For the Dodgers, Julio Urías has been solid and could limit some of the power bats in the BOS lineup, but if he doesn’t make guys miss like Trevor Story and Luis Urías (no relation) he could be in for a rough day.
Jordan Lyles is mainly a FB pitcher who also allows hard barrel contact to Rs. This should be to SEA’s advantage with the park conditions during the day – especially since Lyles has given up six HRs in his last two starts (with four given up to SEA 10 days ago).
Logan Gilbert seems like he should be better than his box scores have been- with one standout 12 K game vs SD – but even the recent game vs KC yielded four ER (two HR) with five Ks. This could be a good target game to stack in tournaments.
Up until his last start, Sean Manaea hasn’t been bad in bulk relief (especially at home). ATL is still ATL, but with the wind blowing in at SF, there probably isn’t much need to pay up for too many ATL bats in a glorified bullpen game. As for Max Fried, he hasn’t been great in his last three starts (the last one vs SF at home), yielding at least two ERs and averaging four Ks over those games.
The Marlins have lost five of their last six, but maybe Jake Irvin and his lowest-of-the-slate PLV rating vs Ls could help them turn things around. Irvin is an FB pitcher vs Ls who allows a fair amount of barrels and hard contact but is mainly a GB pitcher vs Rs. Eury Pérez has become more of an FB pitcher since his last call-up, but his home park should contain most of those hits.
Clarke Schmidt is primarily a GB pitcher to Rs, but his real weakness is hard-contact, line-drive hits from Ls. As mentioned above, Tyler Glasnow had some reverse splits issues last game with barrels from power Rs. Basically, don’t pitch meatballs to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Base plays: Josh Lowe (TB)
CLE@TOR (FD Early only)
Based on stats and hit profiles, Logan Allen & Hyun Jin Ryu are very similar pitchers, with even similar PLV ratings. One notable difference is that Allen is allowing more walks. On paper, it doesn’t look like many strikeouts or big hits will be had, so it’s probably only best used for value plays if you need them on FD.
Stack/GPP plays: Davis Schneider (TOR)
Safe for all formats:
Zack Wheeler – don’t love the K rate being down so much vs Ls…feels like the other options have better value for their prices.
Intriguing tournament play:
Pedro Avila – K rates are really nice, but PLV ratings not so much. He doesn’t pitch deep into games, but hasn’t been blown up much either so he’s an interesting value SP2 if you want to pay up for bats.
Base plays: Ian Happ & Seiya Suzuki (CHC); Liover Peguero & Connor Joe (PIT)
Base plays: Ryan Noda (OAK)
Stack/GPP plays: Tony Kemp (OAK); Luis Robert Jr. (CWS)
Base plays: Luis Rengifo (LAA); DJ Stewart (NYM)
Stack/GPP plays: Shohei Ohtani & Mike Moustakas (LAA); Daniel Vogelbach (NYM)
Base plays: Anthony Santander & Gunnar Henderson (BAL)
Base plays: Corbin Carroll & Jace Peterson (ARI)
Stack/GPP plays: Alek Thomas (ARI)