This time of year always gets to me a little bit. Can you believe we’ve made it to the end? Anyway, tonight’s five-game slate starts with the Blue Jays finishing their series against the Yankees in Toronto.
Today’s SPs and 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious about its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
David Peterson’s ($7,000 DK, $8,600 FD) numbers as a whole are gruesome but he’s at least shown enough strikeout ability to pay off his modest salary. A matchup against the Marlins isn’t a bad gamble to take.
Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver ($7,400 DK, $8,300 DK) gets the nod for Atlanta tonight against the Cubs. But given that he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since a spot start in late July, he seems like a pretty easy fade. And he also struggled a bit too.
The Yankees have K’d at a 26.2% clip in the second half (fourth-highest) so this is a fairly decent spot for Chris Bassitt ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD). Maybe just walk Aaron Judge? That sounds like a plan.
Jesús Luzardo ($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD) gets a middle-of-the-road matchup against the Mets and has been up and down a lot. Still, he has strikeout upside and could easily be the top scorer, especially considering we don’t have a lot of great options tonight.
We’ve got a pretty interesting pitching matchup on the West Coast tonight between Jordan Montgomery ($8,800 DK, $10,200 FD) and Logan Gilbert ($9,700 DK, $8,900 FD).
Between the two, I’m siding with Gilbert. The results haven’t been in his favor the past two turns but his 5.15 PLV is decidedly better than Montgomery’s 4.83 PLV.
Bats
The Dodgers are in Coors Field against Chris Flexen and are easily the top stack of the night. This is about as good of a spot as any to unleash James Outman.
The Blue Jays have been shut down by Michael King and Gerrit Cole the past two nights but they’ve got a chance to get off the schneid tonight against Luke Weaver and his 6.47 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He’s also allowed a .396 wOBA to RHB and a .367 wOBA to LHB.
It’s always about trying to guess roster percentages. In that case, I’m torn about Aaron Judge. On one hand, he went yard twice last night. On the other hand, the Yankees do not project well at all as they have an implied total below four runs.
That aside, there might potentially be a little leverage to be had by paying up for Judge given that there should be a ton of rosters focusing on the Dodgers’ big bats at Coors Field.
Marcus Stroman has made three appearances since returning from a hip injury. He tossed 64 pitches his last time out against the Rockies, so he’s still knocking off the rust.
Unfortunately for him, tonight’s matchup in Atlanta doesn’t offer him a soft landing spot. I almost never look at BvP but here it goes: It’s Eddie Rosario’s birthday and he’s got two home runs in nine at-bats against Stroman. Sure it’s silly, but hey let’s have some fun on the last Thursday of the year.
On the other side, the Cubs bats might be a really sneaky way to attack tonight’s slate. As mentioned earlier, Smith-Shawver didn’t exactly impress when he debuted earlier this year.
Seiya Suzuki is still priced affordably and then, of course, you’ve got Dansby Swanson who hasn’t done much in his first two games back at Truist Field. But the third time is the charm, right?
I don’t want to pick on Jesús Luzardo but Mark Vientos is still really cheap and has started to show off the power that made him a noteworthy prospect.
If you’re avoiding David Peterson, consider Jorge Soler and Jake Burger. They might slip under the radar relatively speaking given that it’s a short slate featuring two high profile lineups with the Dodgers at Coors Field and Atlanta in a blow-up spot against Stroman who is still working his way back.