Saturday has a few different game sets across both sites in addition to three impending double-headers from rainouts last night. Here we’ll focus on the five game night slate starting at 7:15 PM EST. Note that the Brewers/Nationals, a scheduled double-header, is not included on FanDuel. And to make things even more interesting the weather in Washington is looking dicey.
Top SP: Julio Urías LAD ($8,300 DK, $11,500 FD) vs. SF
Julio Urías has been phenomenal, returning 30 DraftKings points or more in three of his last five turns. Overall his 26.5% K-BB and 34.4% CSW lead the slate. In his last outing, against this same Giants team, he recorded ten strikeouts backed by a 41.6% CSW across six frames and he needed just 89 pitches. This year we’re seeing the lefty lean on his curveball a bit more, throwing it at a career-high 32.6% and it’s also returned a career-best 34.6% whiff rate. The only drawback to Urías is that the Dodgers have been, not surprisingly, pretty tight on him as far as pitch count, as he’s yet to go past 95.
Honorable Mentions: None
Value SP: Ian Anderson, ATL ($9,400 DK, $9,000 FD) at NYM
Hopefully they can get this game in. There is some precipitation in the forecast so keep an eye out. The case for Ian Anderson (15.2% K-BB%, 28.3% CSW 2021) tonight is pretty simple. The Mets’ lineup has been torn asunder by injuries. The Mets recently acquired Billy McKinney from the Brewers and he was immediately inserted into the three-hole. That more or less tells you all you need to know. The Mets’ implied total is at under three runs tonight with the Braves installed as heavy road favorites (-149).
The value tier doesn’t really have a standout option so I’m cheating by doubling down with Andserson. Justin Dunn is another pitcher to consider given that the Rangers have K’d at a 26.4% clip this year against RHP, so he’s there if you need the savings. But his 7.1% K-BB% on the year is a red flag.
Another potential value option on DraftKings would be Patrick Corbin (8.7% K-BB%, 27.1% CSW 2021) if he gets the nod for the second half of the National’s double header. The lefty has really had just two good starts so far but the Brewers and their 27.8% K rate against LHP (fifth worst) could be an opportunity to spike a ceiling game.
Honorable Mention: Justin Dunn, SEA ($7,000 DK, $6,700 FD) vs TEX; Patrick Corbin, WAS ($6,100 DK) vs MIL (Double-Header).
1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4,000 DK, $3,100 FD) at ARI
The Cardinals put up eight runs last night so why not go back to the well tonight? Journeyman Seth Frankoff is tonight’s scheduled starter for the D-Backs. And they have tonight’s top implied total at over five runs. Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t been great so far with just a .311 wOBA on the year but his .356 xwOBA could indicate better results ahead and his track record speaks for itself. Hitting third, he’s an affordable way to get a piece of this offense tonight.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Seager, 3B ($4,100 DK, $2,800 FD) vs TEX; David Peralta, OF ($4,100 DK, $2,500 FD) vs. STL.
1B/2B Max Muncy, LAD ($5,700 DK, $3,200 FD) vs SF
Second base is lacking tonight, so I’m drawn to Max Muncy at the top. He’s been nothing short of phenomenal this year as a key cog of the Dodgers lineup with a .419 wOBA backed by an equally impressive .436 xwOBA. His current 20.8% walk rate would be a career-best. The Dodgers will face Logan Webb who has allowed a .344 wOBA to RHB going back to 2019.
Honorable Mentions: Nolan Arenado, 3B ($5,300 DK, $3,600 FD) at ARI; Ketel Marte, OF ($5,000 DK, $3,300 FD) vs STL, Adolis García, OF ($4,300 DK, $4,300 FD) at SEA.
Value Batter: OF Cody Bellinger, LAD ($3,600 DK, $3,500 FD) vs SF
Dodgers fans can exhale. Cody Bellinger is tentatively scheduled to make his return from a hairline fracture in his leg that has held him out for most of the year so far. Logan Webb has ceded a .389 wOBA to LHB so far this year, so that’s a plus but really, Bellinger (career .374 wOBA) is just way too cheap for a player of his caliber making him an easy play.
Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a strong start, blanking the Astros across seven innings. But I’m not buying it for a second and I still think he’s someone to target with hitters. So far this season he has allowed a .424 wOBA to lefties. It makes sense too considering he’s basically just a fastball/slider guy with his K rate against lefties sitting at just 13.7% on the year. The Mariners aren’t a great offense, so maybe he keeps it up but I have a lot of interest in Jarred Kelenic tonight considering Foltynewicz’s splits.
Honorable Mentions: Tyler O’Neill, OF ($3,400 DK, $3,000 FD) at ARI; Dylan Carlson, OF ($3,600 DK, $2,200 FD) at ARI; Pavin Smith, OF ($3,400 DK, $2,600 FD) vs STL; Josh Rojas, 2B/SS ($3,900 DK, $2,300 FD) vs. STL; Kyle Lewis, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,500 FD) vs. TEX; Jarred Kelenic, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,400 FD) vs. TEX; Nate Lowe, 1B ($3,700 DK, $2,900 FD) at SEA; Willie Calhoun, OF ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) at SEA.
Top Stack: STL at ARI (Frankoff)
We haven’t seen much of Frankoff since his return from the KBO a couple of seasons ago but small sample caveat aside, it’s difficult to have much optimism considering his 2.4% K-BB% so far. Another reason to like this game is hitter friendly Chase Field where the weather will once again be conducive for offense with temperatures hovering in the mid to high 90s. Leadoff man Tommy Edman looks a little overpriced considering his career .327 wOBA so he’s probably better suited as a tournament option. Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado (career .382 wOBA) are the priorities at the heart of the order. Tyler O’Neill is a fantastic value that looks under priced considering his power upside (.408 xwOBA this year). Dylan Carlson (.311 xwOBA this year) hasn’t done all that much so far but he’s a player with prospect pedigree and is occupying the two-hole. Yadier Molina has been very productive this year with a .371 wOBA (.360 xwOBA) and can fill what’s always a tough position at catcher. Shortstop is another difficult position to fill and if you’re looking to just punt, Edmundo Sosa, is an option to consider near the bottom of the order.
Honorable Mentions: LAD vs SF (Webb); ARI vs STL (Wainwright).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)