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What a strange Friday we get as the Main Slates on DraftKings and FanDuel don’t start until 8:05. Both sites have 10-game slates. Tonight, we get a pair of AL Cy Young candidates on the bump as well as a game in Coors. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out. They’ve also added a Projected Ownership page to help you get different with your lineups!
Top SP: Lucas Giolito, CHW ($10,500 DK, $10,800 FD) vs. DET
So while I mentioned a pair of AL Cy Young candidates earlier, I’m excluding Shane Bieber from this area. I love Bieber, but his matchup against the Twins is pretty tough. Over their last 14 days, the Twins bats are scorching hot. They’ve posted a .366 team wOBA against righties during that time and if we zoom into over their last 7 days, that number balloons to .402. Can Bieber overcome a tough matchup? Of course, but there are two plays that are slightly cheaper than him with better matchups – Giolito and Maeda.
Since throwing a no-hitter on August 25th, Lucas Giolito has had a couple of “rOuGh oUtInGs”. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed five earned runs over 11 IP, while striking out 17 batters. Giolito’s a beast. He gets a matchup with the Tigers who had heated up for a hot minute, before plummeting back to earth. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers hitters have posted a .314 wOBA against right-handed pitching. However, when we zoom in to the last 7 days, we see the fall as they’ve put up a .252 wOBA against righties. To me, Giolito is as safe as they come today.
Value SP: Yusei Kikuchi, SEA ($6,200 DK, $7,900 FD) at ARI
After seeing a couple of really tough matchups against the Dodgers and Padres, Yusei Kikuchi has had a pair of friendly matchups. The first matchup came against the Rangers, where we saw Kikuchi go six strong innings, allowing just three baserunners and one run. He also struck out seven batters. The second is today against a Diamondbacks team that has been awful all year. For the season, the D-Backs have posted a .305 wOBA against lefties. Things have gotten worse of late as that number plummets to .265 over the last 14 days and .253 in 123 PAs over the last 7 days. Kikuchi is my favorite value play on today’s slate.
Honorable Mentions: Mike Fiers, OAK ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD) at TEX
OF Mike Trout, LAA ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD) at COL
I think this is the only time this year that I’ve highlighted a player priced about $6k on DK. Mike Trout is great all the time. Just 3 games ago, he was priced at $6.1k in the new Rangers’ stadium that has favored pitchers all year. If there was ever a time to pay the freight for Trout, it’s in Coors. For what it’s worth, Trout is also super hot of late as he places sixth on FTN’s Hot Hitter Report. The Angels get a matchup with Germán Márquez, who has allowed 20 runs over 24.1 IP in Coors this year. I honestly expected Trout to be priced closer to $7k today, so I’ll take that discount.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Lewis, OF ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD) at ARI; Eloy Jimenez, OF ($5,100 DK, $3,400 FD) vs. DET
2B Keston Hiura, MIL ($5,300 DK, $3,700 FD) vs. CHC
The regression monster has hit Jon Lester very hard. After allowing just two earned runs in his first three starts of the year, he had a 1.06 ERA. The writing was on the wall as he had a 5.83 xFIP to go along with that ERA. Over the next five starts, Lester allowed 24 runs over 23.1 IP. On the docket today is the Brewers, who have posted a .427 wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days. I’m looking to Keston Hiura to keep the good times rolling (or bad times, however you want to look at it) against Lester.
Value Batter: 3B/SS Erik González, PIT ($3,300 DK, $2,600 FD) at KC
If you’re looking for some salary relief to lock in those high-priced aces or some Coors bats, look no further than Erik González. First off, I love the position flexibility on DK. It also helps that he leads off against left-handed pitchers and mashes versus southpaws. On the year, González has posted a .393 ISO and .492 wOBA against lefties this year. The lefty on the mound for the Royals is Kris Bubic. All the “blue” on Bubic’s Baseball Savant page speaks for itself, but the most concerning stat to me is that his xwOBA is 43 points higher than his .334 wOBA.
Honorable Mentions: Dylan Moore, 2B/OF ($3,600 DK, $3,100 FD) at ARI; Matt Thaiss, 3B/OF ($2,700 DK, $3,000 FD) at COL; David Dahl, OF ($2,800 DK, $3,000 FD) vs. LAA; Ryan Braun, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,900 FD) vs. CHC
Lineup Stack: Angels at Rockies (RHP Germán Márquez)
After seeing Trout’s price, I dove in more and realized DK just forgot to price up all of the Angels bats. They’re going to be chalk, but they have the second-highest implied run total according to FTN’s Lineup Optimizer at 6.3 runs. Following Márquez, the Angels will get a Rockies bullpen that has allowed 58 runs to score over their last 52 innings thrown. I’ll take the over on that 6.3 runs. If I’m stacking the Angels, I’m starting with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. From there, I’m going to the other bats at the top of the lineup in Andrelton Simmons ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Matt Thaiss ($2,700, $3,000), and Shohei Ohtani ($4,400 DK, $3,700 FD). Good luck today!
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)