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Top SP: Gerrit Cole, NYY ($10,300 DK, $10,600 FD) at BAL
I have to admit that given how well he’s pitched this season I’m awfully tempted to side with Lucas Giolito (25% K-BB rate in 2020). Among qualified starters, he’s third with a 17.3% swinging K rate behind only Jacob deGrom (20.6%) and Shane Bieber (17.7%).
But we’ll go with the more established top arm in Gerrit Cole who is second on the board tonight with a 25.5% K-BB. Kenta Maeda is just barely ahead at 25.6%. Fortune hasn’t been on Cole’s side so far this year as his HR/FB rate sits at an elevated 22.6% but his K rate remains elite at 31.9% (14.8% Swinging strike rate). In his last start Cole struggled against the Rays, allowing 12 base runners in just five innings of work. He still managed to collect seven strikeouts with a 33% CSW. Tonight, he’ll face an Orioles offense that has been a league-average offense against RHP with a .321 team wOBA and 100 wRC+. The Yankees are the biggest favorite on the board tonight at -256.
Maeda against the Tigers is absolutely worth a mention as well although I do feel that he has significantly less pitch count upside than either Giolito or Cole making him a third option at his price point.
Honorable Mentions: Lucas Giolito, CWS ($10,500 DK, $10,400 FD) at KC; Kenta Maeda, CLE ($10,100 DK, $9,900 FD) vs DET.
Value SP: Justus Sheffield, SEA ($7,600 DK, $8,100 FD) vs TEX
The value pitching tier is lacking any real standout option tonight so we’ll look to take advantage of a plus matchup. The Rangers have been a pretty terrible offense against LHP this season with a .287 team wOBA and 70 wRC+ so this could potentially add some appeal to an otherwise ordinary-looking Justus Sheffield, who has been close to league-average with a 22% K rate. The Mariners, meanwhile, are modest home favorites (-134), with the visiting Rangers having an implied run total just over four.
And speaking of matchups, Tony Gonsolin gets a great one against the road Rockies and their team wOBA of .281 away from Coors Field. The only thing that has me a little hesitant is a suspect pitch count.
Honorable Mention: Tony Gonsolin, LAD ($8,300 DK, $8,300 FD) vs COL.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL ($4,800 DK, $4,100 FD) vs WAS
Going by the projections at FTN, we should be aggressive in targeting Braves bats this evening. And what better way to do that than with a now fully healthy Ronald Acuña Jr? The Braves will be facing the righty Erick Fedde, who is near the bottom of the board tonight with a K-BB rate of just 3.7% over his four starts. In addition, he’s allowed a .315 xBA and .370 xwOBA so far this year. The Braves currently have an implied team total just barely under six runs.
Honorable Mentions: Michael Conforto, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,200 FD) vs PHI; Luke Voit, 1B ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD) at BAL; Eloy Jiménez, OF ($4,800 DK, $3,400 FD) at KC; Gleyber Torres, SS ($4,400 DK, $2,700 FD) at BAL.
1B Luke Voit, NYY ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD) at BAL
The Yankees are right there with the Braves and White Sox in terms of implied team totals at just under six runs. The Yankees will continue their series at Camden Yards, facing the lefty Keegan Akin. Last year in Triple-A the lefty tallied an underwhelming 4.73 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 13.9% K-BB rate across 112.1 innings. To say the Yankees offense has been sputtering of late would be an understatement. You can more or less encapsulate their offense recently by how many times Luke Voit has managed to drive himself in. He’s been incredible this year with a 17.1% barrel rate and .435 xwOBA both in the top four percent of the league. The recent return of D.J. LeMahieu and hopefully Gleyber Torres tonight should eventually help spur the Yankee offense along. Playing in Camden Yards never hurts either.
Honorable Mentions: Marcell Ozuna, OF ($4,500 DK, $3,800 FD) vs WAS; Teoscar Hernández, OF ($4,800 DK, $3,900 FD) at TOR, J.D. Martinez, OF ($5,000 DK, $3,300 FD) vs TOR; Luis Robert, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD) at KC.
Value Batter: 1B Rowdy Tellez, TOR ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD) at BOS
Rowdy Tellez might be a little off the beaten path but it gives us a chance to highlight the Blue Jays who get to tee off at Fenway again, this time against the right-handed Ryan Weber. He’s struggled a lot, with a walk rate (12.7%) nearly six percentage points higher than his K rate (7.0%). In the past two seasons, Weber has allowed a .375 wOBA against lefties. Tellez, meanwhile, is an interesting batter who has always had appreciable power. His max exit velo last year of 115.2 mph ranked 22nd in MLB. This season he’s shaved his K rate down from 28.4% to just 17% while maintaining an excellent .386 xwOBA. He provides terrific power upside at a very reasonable cost.
Another value play to keep an eye on is Miguel Andújar.The Yankees cavalcade of injuries has continued, with the latest casualty being Gio Urshela. That should prompt Andújar’s getting into the lineup. They’ll be facing the lefty Keegan Akin at Camden Yards. Gleyber Torres is nearing a return and is a fantastic value on FanDuel at just $2,700.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Donaldson, 3B ($3,700 DK, $2,800 FD) vs DET; Nick Solak, 2B/OF ($3,100 DK, $2,700 FD) at SEA; Jeff McNeil, 3B/OF ($3,700 DK, $2,600 FD) vs PHI; José García, SS ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD) at PIT; Gregory Polanco, OF ($2,900 DK, $2,600 FD) vs CIN; Miguel Andújar, 3B ($2,700 DK, $2,000 FD) at BAL; Josh Bell, 1B ($3,500 DK, $2,700 FD) vs CIN; Clint Frazier, OF ($3,700 DK) at BAL; Aaron Hicks, OF ($3,400 DK, $2,800 FD) at BAL; Jake Fraley, OF ($2,000 DK, $2,400 FD) vs TEX.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at Royals (LHP Kris Bubic)
Phillies rookie Spencer Howard has really struggled against lefties so far, allowing a .481 wOBA and just a 14.3% K rate and 11.9% walk rate to them. He’ll face quite a few of them tonight with the Mets in Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Robinson Canó, and Jeff McNeil.
The other key spots for offense tonight has mentioned earlier are the Braves against Fedde, the Yankees at Camden Yards against Akin, and the Blue Jays at Fenway against Weber. And even though I feel like a broken record I have to insist on the White Sox anytime they face a questionable lefty. And that is Kris Bubic tonight who they’ll be facing for the third time this year. The big Royals prospect has shown just about a league-average K rate of 21.1% while allowing a .354 xwOBA. Meanwhile he’ll face a lineup loaded with righty power the standouts so far this year being Tim Anderson (.370 xwOBA this season) at leadoff, Jose Abreu (.394 xwOBA) hitting 3rd, Eloy Jiménez (.387 xwOBA), and Luis Robert (.401 xwOBA).
Honorable Mentions: TOR at BOS (Weber); ATL vs WAS (Fedde); NYM vs PHI (Howard); NYY at BAL (Akin); MIN vs DET (Skubal).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)