Down Goes Tyson

Nick Pollack reviews every single starting pitcher's performances from Sunday's games.

(Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)

I think it’s time that we take a major step back on Tyson Ross who had a disastrous 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks outing against the Pirates. Zero strikeouts (HAIGFMFWT?!) and just three whiffs on 79 pitches (22% CSW!) as he struggled heavily to get pitches over the plate. Across his last seven starts, Ross is now averaging under four strikeouts per game. This is from a pitcher that we are expecting to take a hit ratio wise in exchange for strikeouts. This isn’t the Ross of old – his fastball and slider are not what they used to be – and we should be treating him like a Toby with possible strikeout upside that could return later in the year. I wouldn’t flat out drop him save for shallow leagues, but I’m already not looking forward to next week against the Diamondbacks.

Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:

Mike Foltynewicz – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Man, I love that slider – 9/29 whiffs – and I feel bad that I ever questioned you Folty. Still expect some regression, but he may be taking a decent jump today.

Matt Harvey – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Harvey was pulled with 68 pitches due to a 54-minute rain delay. He sat just under 95mph again and it’s hard not to be a little intrigued. 12 whiffs – 33% on his slider! – is excellent here and I can see someone taking a flier in a 12-teamer. He’ll be on The List today, though I imagine I’d find myself streaming first before rostering Harvey. I just don’t buy the secondary stuff sticking + avoiding damage with heat even with the velocity.

Steven Matz – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Whoa, 36 CSW over 109 pitches from Matz with 14 whiffs. 14! You must realize that Matz had just three starts in 15 games with a whiff rate above 10%, with this start against the Marlins (of course, the Marlins) ranking at the top. He’ll get a bump from me today as it’s three games tallying 19 strikeouts, though I don’t see Matz close to Top 50 despite his current 3.46 ERA. I don’t trust the .257 BABIP while a 9.1% BB rate puts me on edge. Still a decent option, but very capped ceiling.

James Paxton – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Another Gallows Pole for Paxton – 27 whiffs! – en route to 41/110 CSW. That’s what’s up.

Luis Severino – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Sevy got his revenge on the Sawx after they touched him up back in April. He’s getting a one rank bump today as Verlander falls under Kershaw.

Brad Keller – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is a whopping outing from BK that makes me want to put a crown on him. Hope you enjoyed the Birthday Party.

Blake Snell – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Snell faced the Astros and Snell didn’t care. Believe it.

Jordan Zimmermann – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Zimmermann threw just 38 heaters and instead tossed 58 sliders + curveballs, returning a 12%+ whiff rate and 31 CSW. No way I’m putting stock in that but….hmmmmm.

Jake Arrieta – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. This is super boring, but from Arrieta – now known as Spiderman as the #1 Toby in the fantasy work – gave us what we expected out of him. And that’s okay.

Chad Bettis – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Bettis left this game with an injured finger. So much for nothing. Seriously, nothing, you weren’t rostering him, right?

Kevin Gausman – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. We’re back to Gausman losing the feel for his Splitter (1 whiff in 17 thrown) but fortunately he was able to glide through this outing without it. He’s back to Toby land and that’s okay, though I’m alright if you need to swap him out with someone a little more exciting that could potentially move the needle more aggressively.

Jon Lester – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. This is the sound of the regression hitting. Funny enough, we’ve been saying he’d settled to be close to a 3.60 ERA pitcher and this game is a…3.60 ERA.

Reynaldo Lopez – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Yeah I’ll take this from ReyLo against the Rangers even if the WHIP is out of whack. His changeup has been flat out missing lately and that’s too bad, but his curveball went 8 for 16 in called strikes to make up for it, so that’s cool.

Charlie Morton – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Morton is just showing off now. 16 whiffs and 35 CSW in 103 pitches is oh-so-sweet.

Mike Clevinger – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. A VPQS from Clev with just 5 Ks? Meh, you can do better Clevinger, I know you can.

Gio Gonzalez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Is this a rebound for Gio? I wouldn’t say so and I’m wondering how far I have to drop him today. It wouldn’t be pretty.

Derek Holland – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. I wanted to see his slider usage still elevated and the whiffs to follow and we got 17/90 sliders with just 3 whiffs on the pitch. Welp, that was a fun drop in the bucket.

Frankie Montas – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Montas was handed a Philly here as he was pulled one out early for the QS, but it’s not so bad against the Indians. I’m not sure how I feel about him these days, I can see him hover the 60/70s for a while, never taking that leap to his ceiling, but never falling off either.

Freddy Peralta – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Here’s the floor of Peralta. When facing a patient team like the Reds, Peralta had a more difficult time getting strikes – 26/93 CSW – and it led to a 1.60 WHIP. I expect him to get the hook soon as Davies returns so you can move on to another Spice Girl or stream in his place.

Dan Straily – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. It’s a 3.86 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and 7 Ks. That’s a streaming…Win? Loss? He didn’t earn you a dub so…what should I do guys. I feel like sub 4.00 ERA and sub 1.30 WHIP and 7 Ks deserves the win, right? Don’t hesitate to berate in the comments. Streaming 50-27.

Jameson Taillon – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Bleeeeeegh. This was the Padres Taillon. The Padres! His slider wasn’t as good as it’s been with just 5/22 CSW and he never got into a solid groove. Keep the faith but this is super disappointing.

John Gant – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. He got the Braves and we didn’t expect to go well in the same way that the Andrew Cashner signing was born to fail.

Ross Stripling – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. The day Sporer and I talk about Stripling in the fireside chat is obviously the day where he stumbles the most. It’s still seven Ks though and there’s something to be said about salvaging a start that doesn’t go your way.

Deck McGuire – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Thanks McGuire. You’ve officially ruined the phrase Decked Out for me.

Zack Godley – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks. Yes. Drop him. Just do it and we can move on. Is it possible that he recovers in the second half? Definitely. Is that worth the pain and agony of hoping his command shows up next week or next month? Nope.

Cole Hamels – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. I loved this start against the ChiSox and this is just wrong. Wrong! A tough fifth inning did Hamels in as he was Singled Out a little and despite 17 whiffs on 81 pitches, it just didn’t go his way. I wouldn’t drop him in a 12-teamer.

J. A. Happ – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Happy was doing just fine until two outs in the fifth, when a pair of singles, a walk, a bunt single, and grand slam returned a crooked five spot. Then in the sixth, again with two outs, it was a single, double, single for another two runs. I’d buy low here, this wasn’t a man laboring, it was a man who didn’t have a good day.

Lance Lynn – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Ah yes, the floor that is truly lava for Lynn. Lava for Lynn? I LOVE that band!

David Price – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Can’t say I was too thrilled with Price having a date with the Yanks, but 5 HRs? 8 ER? Jeeeeeeez. You shouldn’t do anything different moving forward, but man this hurt.

Today’s Streamer

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Miami Marlins – This is a clear choice to me. I’d also consider Nick Kingham most likely getting that start against the Dodgers or even Mike Fiers against the Jays if I’m super desperate.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Zack Wheeler vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I’m kind amazed he’s still so un-owned (12%!) and a date with the Jays should work well.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Jaime Barria vs. Seattle Mariners – He survived the Red Sox, so let’s take a shot against the Mariners.

Game of the Day

Nick Kingham vs. Alex Wood – The coronation has begun.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

24 responses to “Down Goes Tyson”

  1. max says:

    Dunno wth is going on w/ Godley but I agree, he can figure it out on the wire. If anyone is gonna stream him, it better be at home and not vs a division rival or anyone who has seen him once already this season. Very limited utility and even his good games aren’t great.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      It’s a really sad state of affairs, but it’s time to stop waiting for his 2017 ability to show up again.

      Sorry to put you guys through the rollercoaster.

      • DGM says:

        His recent string of “success” was mostly due to a more controlled delivery where he wasn’t flying off to the 1st base side after every pitch – that all went out the window yesterday. Dude was practically on the floor after every pitch. For a second I thought that the new delivery would take but nah – he’s certainly not worth the headache.

  2. Bartolo says:

    I dropped Montas instead of Lynn last week. Ugh. Do you think Faria or Tropeano will be an upgrade over Lynn by end of July/early August. Kind of looking forward to not having to deal with Lynn’s blowups.

  3. Jim says:

    Better stream tomorrow, Yarborough or Desclafani? Actually, I can prob dump Castillo to do both. Either decent play for you?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Tony Disco.

      Yarb isn’t the worst against Miami, but a higher ceiling for Disco gives him the nod.

  4. Steven says:

    As a Red Sox fan I never start Price vs Yankees. He has a career 4.90 ERA 1.40 WHIP and just gets destroyed almost every outing. Gary Sanchez wasn’t even playing last night and he has a career 6-12 5 HR 2 BB stat line vs him. Really hope we win the division against your Yankees Nick to avoid the nightmare situation of having to potentially start Price Game 1 vs the Yankees if Sale pitches the wild card game.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Ha! Hope you guys know I’m a baseball fan first, Yankees second. Really looking forward to what September brings regarding the division race.

      Yeah, I think just sitting Price against the Yanks and starting against everyone else is the way to go.

  5. Killebrews says:

    Not sure about the buying low on Happ. His SwStr% has tanked over the last 30 to an abysmal 7%. Sold him for Joc P in dynasty league before this last start

  6. Mike says:

    Should I drop Ross for Kingham?

  7. Sean says:

    Somebody dropped Darvish in my league, should I drop Ohtani off my DL slot and acquire darvish?

  8. Dan says:

    Drop Ross for Wheeler?

  9. Big League S. Choo says:

    My Anthony Rendon for Matt Harvey. Good deal?

  10. DGM says:

    Do you like Marco Gonzales over Kevin Gausman? In either case I know that neither is worth starting against a top 5 offense.

    Also, it’s worth noting that I have a pitching staff that includes Verlander, Price, Berrios, Pivetta & Carrasco but Gonzales and Gausman were my 2 best pitchers last week. So it goes.

  11. Southern Marylander says:

    I want to congratulate Happ and Hamels on ending my team’s season yesterday. I was in a position where 5 IP and 3 ER from Happ would’ve netted me a 5 – 5 tie (it would’ve been 7 – 3 win if my offense had done, well, anything) against my opponent, currently the top wild card team. We all know what happened. That forced me to start Hamels who could’ve salvaged the tie. We all know what happened.

    The sell-off begins today. Give me all of your delicious, chewy prospects.

  12. Mitch says:

    Wheeler or Estrada for Tomorrow??

  13. nick g says:

    admittedly, i haven’t been paying super close attention to the csw stat you’ve rolled out. generally speaking, what has been the good vs elite rate there? judging by paxton and morton, i’m guessing it’s probably ~33% – 35% being pretty awesome and anything higher truly elite. what about the sort of middle range?

  14. David says:

    Needed one quality start yesterday from either Price, Ross, or Lynn so…

  15. Frankie says:

    Why can’t I quit Gausman?

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