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SP: Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS ($9,000) vs. BAL
The biggest favorite of the evening (-284 as of this writing) may go a little overlooked because of two disastrous starts against Oakland and Seattle that have left him with an ERA of 12.38 and a WHIP of 2.75. But this is just about as good of a get-right spot as you could draw up against the Orioles at home. In the early going, the Orioles’ 7.2% walk rate is seventh from the bottom. I like Eduardo Rodriguez’s chances of bouncing back here against an aggressive and well below average offense.
SP: Drew Pomeranz, SF ($8,100) vs. COL
It’s easy to forget, but Drew Pomeranz was a pretty effective starter back in 2016 and 2017 when he carried solid 26.5% and 23.5% strikeout rates respectively. This year, his fastball velocity is up to right around 92 mph, while last year he sat at just under 90 mph. So perhaps we see a little resurgence this year. This play is really bolstered by an appealing matchup against the Rockies. There are certainly better days ahead for the Rockies offense, but it’s hard to overlook how bad they’ve been thus far generating a .272 wOBA and an OBP of .281. And they’ll be in arguably the worst park for hitters in all of baseball here.
3B: Manny Machado, SD ($4,500) at ARI
Hopes of a post-Cardinals career resurgence for Luke Weaver have been held off in the early going at least as he’s failed to make much headway with his new team. The lack of bat-missing ability that plagued him last year still seems to be the problem with Weaver, who has managed only seven strikeouts through his first two turns. Weaver is kind of a nondescript target in that he’s not outwardly terrible strictly by the numbers, so I don’t think too many will key in here, especially on a big 12-game slate with so many other spots drawing attention. Manny Machado is a nice one-off. And the Padres as a whole profile as a really low-owned, high-upside stack that could pay off in tournaments.
OF: Eloy Jimenez, CWS ($3,700) at NYY
He’s been quiet. Too quiet. Eloy Jimenez has yet to get the elusive first home run through his first 40 at-bats. And what better place than Yankees Stadium? His modest start to the year should keep the ownership levels reasonable, and I love this price. I don’t think J.A. Happ is a name most will look to pick on, but in the early going, he has been the definition of unimpressive, failing to get through five innings in his first two turns against Baltimore. Really small sample size caveat, of course, but the Statcast data hasn’t been in Happ’s favor either thus far, surrendering a 46.2% hard-hit rate and .432 xwOBA.
OF: Joey Gallo, TEX ($4,900) vs. OAK
Most will look to the Oakland side of this game for bats — spoiler alert but I like the A’s quite a bit too as a stack. However, don’t forget about the Texas side of this game as they also get an exploitable draw against Mike Fiers, who is no stranger to the long ball, having given up 32 home runs in each of the past two seasons. His fly-ball tendencies should do him no favors here in Texas this evening. Fiers’ below-average strikeout rate of 19.5% also mitigates the swing and miss here with Joey Gallo.
OF: Bryce Harper, PHI ($5,300) at MIA
This is a tough price that I’m not sure many will be willing to go for, especially considering it’s at a pitcher-friendly park in Miami. But keep in mind the Phillies are a team with a nice implied total currently sitting at just under five runs. Sandy Alcantara had a really nice first start against Colorado and then fell on his face, walking five and failing to register a strikeout through four innings in his following start against a quality offense in Atlanta. In his 34 innings last year Alcantara had a walk rate over 15% along with an unimpressive strikeout rate of 20.6%. Bryce Harper and the Phillies offense could certainly have a big day here.
Tournament Stack: Athletics at TEX (LHP Drew Smyly)
The Red Sox find themselves in a big-time boom spot at home against David Hess and the Orioles. Their current implied team total of six and a half runs tops the slate and will figure to garner plenty of traffic in terms of ownership. Then there are the Yankees at home against Lucas Giolito, who is no stranger to implosions. Though if you are stacking the Yankees, keep an eye on the weather there.
I like the Athletics in Texas taking on Drew Smyly. The A’s are currently one of the five teams with an implied total at or over five runs. In his last start against an anemic Angels lineup, Smyly failed to get out of the fourth inning. It’s fair to say he’s still shaking off the rust after not having pitched in the bigs since 2016. He’ll have a tough task against a lineup that features plenty of right-handed power with the likes of Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Chad Pinder, and Stephen Piscotty.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.