Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Tonight’s Starters
| Road SP | xFIP | K% | K-BB% | ML | OK% | Home SP | xFIP | K% | K-BB% | ML | OK% |
| Gibson | 3.91 | 21.5 | 12.3 | 135 | 22.5 | Paxton | 3.00 | 33.0 | 26.3 | -145 | 19.8 |
| Glasnow | 3.39 | 28.8 | 18.8 | -190 | 22.7 | Straily | 5.26 | 17.9 | 8.1 | 180 | 24.8 |
| Hellickson | 4.56 | 16.6 | 10.2 | 154 | 22.8 | Eickhoff | 2.79 | 34.1 | 28.6 | -164 | 25.6 |
| B. Anderson | 4.22 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 115 | 23.3 | Musgrove | 3.90 | 21.1 | 16.3 | -125 | 19.4 |
| Gausman | 4.14 | 20.2 | 13.5 | -143 | 24.8 | Urena | 4.31 | 18 | 11 | 133 | 21.8 |
| Beede* | 3.76 | 37.4 | 26.4 | 140 | 24.5 | Gray | 3.87 | 22.7 | 13.4 | -150 | 23.7 |
| Kikuchi | 4.27 | 17.7 | 12.1 | 139 | 26.1 | Bieber | 3.48 | 25 | 19.4 | -149 | 25.1 |
| J. Lopez | 4.62 | 18.1 | 9.2 | 138 | 27.1 | Boyd | 4.46 | 24.1 | 17.0 | -148 | 22.3 |
| Thornton | 3.82 | 27.1 | 17.2 | 138 | 24.9 | Minor | 4.48 | 21.5 | 15.2 | -148 | 26.7 |
| Sale | 2.62 | 35.9 | 30 | -172 | 24.9 | R. Lopez | 5.24 | 20.2 | 10.4 | 162 | 20.7 |
| Matz | 4.10 | 23.4 | 14.9 | 120 | 25.2 | Gonzalez | 4.45 | 19.6 | 9 | -130 | 24.2 |
| Ray | 3.87 | 30.5 | 17.4 | -108 | 24.9 | T. Anderson | 4.26 | 22.6 | 13.7 | -102 | 22.6 |
| Kershaw | 3.15 | 24.3 | 19.8 | -172 | 27.1 | Lauer | 4.47 | 20.1 | 11.4 | 162 | 20.9 |
All pitcher stats seen above are from the 2018-19 MLB seasons combined unless otherwise noted below.
Beede*=2019 AAA
OK% = Opponent team strikeout rate (2019 year to date).
ML = Money Line.
This article was written the night before; some money lines may not yet be available (TBD).
SP: Jerad Eickhoff, PHI ($7,400) vs. WAS
Jerad Eickhoff has been excellent through his first two starts this year. And it may not be smoke and mirrors. Our own Nick Gerli wrote a fantastic article on Eickhoff detailing the reasons behind his success. It’s worth a read if you haven’t caught it yet. Tonight, Eickhoff is a sizable home favorite (-160 as of this writing) against a Nationals lineup that will certainly be down Anthony Rendon and could also be without Juan Soto too as he has missed the past two contests with back spasms. There is tremendous value in this price provided he can hold some of the strikeout gains he’s shown in the early going this year.
SP: Tyler Beede, SF ($6,100) at CIN
The Giants will be calling up their former first-round pick from way back in 2014. He’s been doing some very eye-opening things in the hitter-friendly PCL this year. Through his first five starts, Tyler Beede is rocking a 37.4% strikeout rate rate and a 1.99 ERA. His arsenal is highlighted by a big fastball that hits 97-98 mph, a curveball and a plus changeup. To be very clear, this is an extreme GPP play in a rookie who’s making his MLB debut. He’s also shown an elevated walk rate too (11%), so this is absolutely a risky pick. He’s topped out at around 80 pitches in his starts in Triple-A, so he’ll need to be efficient, but if he carries that outrageous strikeout rate into the bigs, he can return value at this very cheap price.
1B: Nathaniel Lowe, TB ($4,000) at BAL
The Rays’ prized rookie is still searching for his first home run. I say “still” jokingly, of course; it’s been all of four games. Anyway, you couldn’t ask for a better spot to go boom than against Dan Straily at Camden Yards. Looking at our chart from above, Straily sticks out like a sore thumb as he has shown some of the weakest skills by far of all the pitchers taking to the bump this evening evidenced by a 5.26 xFIP and 8.1 K-BB%. Yikes. And oh yeah, he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher too. The Rays’ implied team total of just under 5.5 runs is right at the top of the board tonight.
2B/OF: Ketel Marte, ARI ($5,400) at COL
Earlier this offseason, I wrote an article on Ketel Marte and how he was showing signs of a legitimate breakout last year. Fast forward to May, and he’s already halfway to matching his career high in home runs of 14. The big question with Marte was could he show some improvements as a left-handed hitter? Platoon splits can be very fickle so it’s a little early to look into it, but the encouraging sign is that he’s shown power from the left side evidenced by Sunday’s bomb courtesy of Masahiro Tanaka, which at 453 feet was coincidentally the longest home run from a D-Back this year. Anyway, we won’t have to worry about Marte’s efficacy as a left-handed hitter at least for the first few at-bats tonight as he’ll be batting from what’s been his stronger side to date against the southpaw Tyler Anderson, whose 36 home runs allowed from 2018-19 leads the slate. Marte’s skill set figures to be amplified at Coors Field, where we tend to see more extra-base hits. At well over $5,000, it’s a tough price to manage, but there is certainly upside here as Marte as had two, two home-run performances already this year.
2B: Rougned Odor, TEX ($3,800) vs. TOR
It’s been an April to forget for Rougned Odor, who’s hitting well under the Mendoza line as we march into May. The Rangers have one of the bigger totals of the night at over five runs at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. They’ll get Blue Jay rookie Trent Thornton, who has shown some good (27.1 % strikeout rate) but also some bad (11.7% barrel rate and .349 xwOBA) this year. Odor is a boom/bust option and a nice way to get exposure to the Rangers lineup at a very reasonable price.
If this game gets rained out, Jesus Aguilar ($3,800) against Steven Matz is another bat to consider at a similar price point.
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr, ATL ($4,600) at MIA
It’s not really about the matchup here. I just love this price for Ronald Acuna. Tonight, the Braves will face Jose Urena, who is typically someone you’d rather attack with lefties going by his career splits, but at well under $5,000, there’s just too much upside for me to ignore. On a big 13-game slate, I don’t think too many people will be drawn to bats at cavernous Marlins park, but Acuna is capable of having a massive game any day.
Tournament Stack: PHI vs. WAS (RHP Jeremy Hellickson)
On a massive 13-game slate, there are plenty of places to look at tonight for bats. The game at Coors and the Rays at Camden Yards jump off the page. There’s also a game in Texas where the Rangers could be poised to take advantage of Blue Jays rookie Trent Thornton, though there could be some weather there, so keep an eye on the forecast.
Here we’ll go with the Phillies against Jeremy Hellickson, whose shown next to no ability to miss bats with just a 16.6% strikeout rate the past two seasons. That could be a problem tonight against the Phillies, who as of this writing are one of five teams tonight with an implied total over 5 runs. Much has been made of Bryce Harper’s strikeout rate this year, but something’s got to give tonight against Hellickson and his lack of strikeouts.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.