Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, I’ll take a look at the DraftKings MLB main slate from a GPP perspective. The goal here is to come up with plays that may be overlooked (lower owned) and could pay dividends in tournaments.
Spend Up SP: Freddy Peralta, ($9,100) vs. STL
OK, so $9,100 isn’t exactly expensive, but it is relative to this slate. The slam dunk play of the night in my mind is German Marquez ($9,200) going against the sad Marlins, but if you want to be a little different, consider Freddy Peralta. This is a really interesting game because on the opposite side you have the phenom Jack Flaherty, who is coming off an incredible rookie campaign and is actually cheaper than Peralta here at $9,000. I’d guess (again, just a guess!) that Flaherty carries higher ownership of the two. In that case, I’d be more inclined to go with Peralta and the Brewers who as of this writing are modest -115 favorites. While Flaherty may be the more known quantity here, don’t forget Peralta was very impressive during his 78 innings last year as he notched a strikeout rate just under 30%.
Value SP: Mattew Boyd, DET ($6,600) at TOR
Matthew Boyd has shown off some extra velocity this spring, so we could potentially see him build off last year’s solid but otherwise unspectacular 22.4% strikeout rate. There is some power here with the Blue Jays lineup in Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, and Justin Smoak, but these guys also swing and miss quite a bit. Each of them had a strikeout rate north of 26% last year, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Boyd stack up some strikeouts this evening. Joey Lucchesi ($7,900) going against the Giants is the easier and safer play, but don’t overlook Boyd. He has good upside at this price point for tournaments.
Spend Up Bat: Trevor Story, COL ($4,900) at MIA
I don’t think anyone really likes to spend up for Rockies bats when they are away from Coors, so chances are that Trevor Story is relatively low owned here, especially in a pitcher’s park like Miami. Trevor Richards has a devastating changeup that he uses to help neutralize left-handed hitters as they only managed a .293 wOBA against him last year. Same-handed hitters, however, hit Richards much harder last year to the tune of a .353 wOBA. Part of that at least has to do with his fastball. It was bad, really bad. Righties tattooed it for a .415 xwOBA. His teammate Nolan Arenado ($5000) is also a very interesting hitter to consider here.
Value Bat: OF Christin Stewart, DET ($3,600) at TOR
Small sample size caveat, but last year, Matt Shoemaker allowed an alarming 48.8% hard-hit rate. In particular, lefties really crushed his sinker for a .412 xwOBA. This isn’t really anything new for Shoemaker; he’s had his fair share of trouble with the long ball throughout his career. Enter Christin Stewart, a rookie for the Tigers with big power. This is a nice price, and I see it as an opportunity to get in on the ground floor before he becomes more widely known by DFS gamers.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD ($3,900) vs. SF
OK, I like Derek Holland. Maybe not quite as much as Nic Pollack, who has him just outside his top 50 starting pitchers. And he’s got an incredibly solid Twitter handle. Seriously, who doesn’t love dutch ovens? Anyway, I still think he profiles as a pitcher with a pretty wide platoon split in favor of right-handed hitters. Fernando Tatis Jr. was a little bit of a surprise addition to the Opening Day roster. He had two hits in his debut. The precocious talent is a worthy dice roll here. I would not want to stack this spot, to be clear, but if you’re looking for additional one-offs here while building multiple lineups guys such asHunter Renfroe ($4,400), Franmil Reyes ($4,200), and of course Manny Machado ($4,900) are worth considering.
Rafael Devers, BOS ($4,000) at SEA
The Red Sox get the new Mariner Yusei Kikuchi here. In the opener, Rafael Devers hit third between Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. You’d be hard pressed to find a better spot to hit in all of baseball than between those two. Assuming that spot holds (it could be a little different against the southpaw Kikuchi), I have some interest in Devers here. Most people if they do opt to attack Kikuchi will do so with the righties Betts and Martinez, which figures to leave the lefty Devers relatively low owned. He’s coming off a down year in 2018, but he’s still just 22 years old and an immense talent in a great lineup.
Tournament Stack: Brewers vs. Cardinal (RHP Jack Flaherty)
You’re well aware of the talented Flaherty. He’s very good! But I see this as an opportunity to get a really, really good offense in the Brewers at somewhat reduced ownership. Flaherty struggled with his efficiency at times last year, so it wouldn’t be too terribly surprising to see him struggle here against an exceptionally deep lineup that has already seen him several times.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal views on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.