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Top Play SP: Justin Verlander, HOU ($11,500) vs. SEA
Despite a middling match-up, Justin Verlander is the top option on today’s slate. The Mariners have been decent against right-handed pitching, but do strike out at a 23.4% clip. Verlander’s 32.6% strikeout rate ranks fourth best in the league and is tops on today’s slate. Strikeouts are king on DraftKings, so I’ll be locking Verlander in as my SP1 in cash games today.
Honorable mention: Zack Greinke, ARI ($9,500) at SFG.
Value SP: Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($8,100) vs. PIT
I just don’t understand Brandon Woodruff’s price today. He has the second highest strikeout rate (11th in the league) on today’s slate and has four starts in a row of at least six innings and six strikeouts, including two games of double-digit strikeouts. He has a middling match-up with the Pirates, who strike out at one of the lowest rates against righties but are also in the bottom third of the league in ISO. With his strikeout-rate, Woddruff has legit 30 point upside on this slate.
Honorable mention: Dakota Hudson, STL ($6,900) at SDP.
Top Play: OF Tommy Pham, TBR ($4,400) vs. TEX
Adrian Sampson has some pretty big reverse splits, allowing a .230 ISO and .375 wOBA to right-handed batters this year. That comes along with a 47.0% hard-hit rate and 41.7% fly-ball rate. Tommy Pham is a ground-ball hitter (54.7%) but that’s just the combination we want. It helps that despite his high ground-ball rate, Pham has a .210 ISO and .375 wOBA against right-handed hitters. Being that this game is being played in Tampa Bay, I expect Pham to be relatively low owned, but should be quite productive.
Honorable mention: OF Joc Pederson, LAD ($5,000) at COL; OF Ronald Acuna, ATL ($5,300) at NYM.
Top Play: SS Jorge Polanco, MIN ($4,600) at CHW
Jorge Polanco has been one of my favorite low-key players over the last year and a half. He’s developed into a power/speed threat with excellent plate discipline. One Saturday, he gets rewarded with a match-up against Ivan Nova, who has been really bad this year. Nova currently has a 5.02 SIERA to go along with his 14.9% strikeout rate. Polanco on the other hand, has been great against right-handed pitching. For the season, he’s put up a ..247 ISO and .409 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Value: OF Eloy Jimenez, CHW ($3,800) vs. MIN
Eloy Jimenez has been extremely hot in June, hitting six home runs to go along with his .383 wOBA, but you would never know it from this price. Jimenez faces Michael Pineda, who currently has allowed a 47.1% hard-hit rate to righties, which has led to a .232 ISO and .354 wOBA. If you’re looking for a mini-stack, I love the 3-4-5 hitters in the White Sox lineup, which includes Jimenez, Jose Abreu, and James McCann.
Honorable mention: 3B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., TOR ($3,300) vs. KCR; 2B/SS Luis Arraez, MIN ($3,900) at CHW.
Top Stack: Braves at Mets (LHP Steven Matz)
Steven Matz has just been smashed by both sides of the plate this year. He’s allowed a .23o ISO and .347 wOBA to righties and has been even worse against lefties, allowing a .254 ISO and .424 wOBA. The projected Braves lineup has a .210 ISO and .369 wOBA, while striking out just 17.7% of the time. The good news is the main bats I want to target are relatively affordable. We’ll start the stack with Ronald Acuna ($5,300) and can move straight down the lineup to Dansby Swanson ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($5,500), Josh Donaldson ($4,200), Austin Riley ($4,600), and Ozzie Albies ($4,400). Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Twins vs. White Sox (RHP Ivan Nova).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.