The Dynasty Baseball Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The fantasy value of a pitcher can change in the blink of an eye. One moment they are considered an ace, and the next they are out for the season. Staying up to date can be challenging even for the most dedicated fantasy managers. That is the goal of these dynasty performance reports the Pitcher List dynasty team is producing. I have the privilege of breaking down which pitchers are seeing their dynasty value fluctuate. Keep reading for the Major League edition of the dynasty pitcher performance report.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Pitchers with Rising Dynasty Value
Luis Gil – NYY
Luis Gil’s name first popped up a couple of seasons ago after showing off impressive stuff in a brief two inning Spring Training outing. Gil’s fastball sat in the upper 90s with two plus secondary offerings, intriguing dynasty managers. Gil even made his Major League debut in 2022, but lasted just one start before undergoing season-ending surgery. This forced Gil to miss the entirety of the 2023 season and he was seemingly a forgotten man prior to Spring Training this year. That is when everything changed.
While uncertainty over Gerrit Cole’s healthy loomed large, the Yankees rotation suddenly had an opening. Rumors of Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell remained prevalent throughout the off-season, but the Yankees were confident they had the answer in-house. After throwing just four professional innings last season, Gil came out firing in Spring Training. He showed off his high-0ctane fastball across 15.2 innings, striking out 37.7% of the batters he faced. Suddenly, Gil’s name was firmly back on fantasy manager’s radars. He won a rotation spot out of camp but there remained skepticism over how his suspect control would play at the Major League level.
Gil has always posted gaudy strikeout numbers. He consistently ran strikeout rates over 30% in the Minor Leagues, but the issue was always the accompanying walk rate. Throughout his Minor League career, Gil walked 12.9% of batters, creating significant relief risk for him moving forward. Through his first four Major League starts, Gil’s control seemingly had gotten even worse. Despite striking out 34.5% of batters, Gil’s walk rate sat north of 20%. His ERA sat at a pretty 2.75, but he had failed to work more than 5.2 innings in any start and seemed like an easy sell-high candidate. Well, as it turns out, Gil was the perfect buy-low option.
Gil’s redraft and dynasty value have both taken off since then. Across his last nine starts, Gil has been one of, if not THE, best pitcher in baseball. He owns a 1.14 ERA supported by a 2.74 FIP. His walk rate has dropped down below 10% while maintaining a healthy strikeout rate. There are times where Gil looks unhittable on the mound and has quickly become a dominant pitcher for the MLB-leading Yankees.
Having only pitched three innings last year, it is likely the Yankees will impose inning restrictions on Gil at some point this year. While that could impact his 2024 value, his dynasty value remains higher than it ever has been. At just 26 years old, Gil is still in the prime of his career and could be a dominant presence on the mound for years to come.
The one warning I will say is that Gil’s zone rate has not increased since his walk issues early on this season. In fact, during the month of June, Gil’s zone rate has dipped below 44%. The Major League average for zone rate sits at 48.6%. His chase rate is right around the league average and his whiff rate has come down after an unsustainably high first month. Gil’s dynasty value is undoubtedly rising, but this could be the time for managers to sell high. A fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium always scares me.
Paul Skenes – PIT
The hype surrounding Paul Skenes has been there for months now, maybe years. Dating back to before the draft, Skenes was viewed by many as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. In his debut season last year, Skenes worked his way up to Double-A, making some believe he could crack the Pirates Opening Day roster this year. The team decided to start Skenes in Triple-A but it was not long before his made his Major League debut on May 11. That meant his first start came less than one year after he was the first overall pick.
Hype and perceived value for prospects is easy to generate while in the Minor Leagues. Some prospects have the ability to mow down Minor League hitters without the bright lights and pressure of pitching in the Major Leagues. Other prospects put up incredible offensive numbers against lower level pitching when their mistakes and flaws are not consistently exploited. The Major Leagues, however, is a completely different ball game. The lights are brighter and the talent is exponentially better.
Skenes has been completely unfazed by all of it. Since being promoted, he has not missed a beat. Across six starts, Skenes owns a 2.43 ERA. He has struck out at least eight batters and allowed two or fewer runs in four of his six starts. Just check out Skenes’ ranks amongst pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched:
- Strikeout Rate: 2nd to Garrett Crochet
- Walk Rate: 14th
- K-BB%: 1st
- WHIP: 12th
- ERA: 14th
- FIP: 7th
Skenes is already proving to be an elite pitcher. His four-seam fastball averages over 99 mph and is generating a whiff rate north of 31%. His splitter (or splinker) has limited opponents to a .073 average with a whiff rate of 33.7%. The PLV on this pitch sits at an incredible 5.90. His overall PLV sits at 5.44 (97th percentile) with a PLA of just 2.35 (90th percentile). Age and experience be darned, Skenes is an ace for both real life and fantasy.
https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1802850429392609562
As mentioned before, Skenes’ dynasty value was already high. Any prospect with as much hype as Skenes is going to be an attractive dynasty asset. However, seeing him find such instant success at the Major League level has taken his dynasty stock to new heights. There is legitimate reason to consider Skenes as the BEST pitcher in dynasty formats. At just 22 years old, the future is bright for Skenes and those who own him in dynasty leagues.
Honorable Mentions:
Garrett Crochet – CWS
Garrett Crochet was the talk of the fantasy baseball community for the first month. His success on the mound was incredible, but many wondered how sustainable it was. Crochet hit a rough patch toward the end of April where he surrendered 17 earned runs across three games. Crochet’s doubters in the dynasty community were quick to victory lap his downfall, but perhaps that was premature. In the nine games since his brief struggles, Crochet has returned to his dominant form. Over that span, he’s striking out 38% of the batters he faces with a sub-two ERA. There should be no debating the validity of Crochet’s dynasty value. He is and should be viewed as an ace. Crochet might have inning restrictions later this season, but that would be the perfect time to acquire him in dynasty formats. He is an elite pitcher and will be for years to come.
Hunter Brown – HOU
Hunter Brown seems to be featured in this article each month. The first two months, Brown was featured in the group of pitchers who had seen their dynasty value fall. Through his first eight starts, Brown owned a 7.71 ERA with a 5.50 FIP. After his start on May 17, Brown has managed to turn his season around. Across his last five starts, Brown’s ERA is just 1.74. His walk rate is nearly half of what it was through his first eight starts and his strikeout rate is up. Brown’s success is linked to a change in his pitch mix. He is throwing fewer four seamers and sliders while increasing his cutter usage and adding a sinker. Brown is still just 25 years old and is showing the ability to make adjustments on the fly. This bodes well for his dynasty value, which is trending back in the right direction.
Pitchers with Falling Dynasty Value:
Jordan Montgomery – ARI
Jordan Montgomery has never been a bad pitcher. Montgomery got his career on track in 2021 and was a reliable, boring, solid fantasy asset for the past few seasons. Last year, however, always seemed to be the pinnacle of his value. Splitting time between St. Louis and Texas, Montgomery posted a 3.20 ERA and was especially dominant down the stretch as a part of the Rangers run to the Pennant. Hopefully, dynasty managers cashed in on Montgomery while they could, because his fantasy value has tanked over the last six months.
For starters, Montgomery did not sign with Arizona until right before the start of the season. You can blame the owners, you can blame Scott Boras, heck you can even blame Montgomery, but there is no denying an extended free agency is never good for a player’s fantasy value. On top of that, Montgomery is now in his age 31 season. There are few pitchers who improve at that age.
Some fantasy managers held out hope that Montgomery’s extended stay in Free Agency created a buying opportunity where he could be considered a value. For those who chose this path, it has quickly backfired. Montgomery has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball through 11 starts, sporting a 6.00 ERA. Of 131 pitchers with at least 50 IP, Montgomery’s 0.3 WAR ranks 110.
Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Montgomery. His sinker, which averaged 93.3 mph last season, is now averaging just 91.7 mph. Montgomery’s run value on this pitch sat at a positive 16 last season and is already at -7 this year.
Sure, there is a bit of bad luck involved. Montgomery’s left-on-base percentage sits down at 64.9%. This is over 8% below the league average. His ERA indicators paint a slightly more optimistic picture, sitting at 5.03, 4.49, and 4.53 respectively. Still, not great. According to PLV, Montgomery’s hit luck sits at +23. This ranks in the seventh percentile in all of baseball. In comparison, Montgomery finished last season with a -22 hit luck. That is a current difference of 55 hits! While that does not mean PLV is a huge fan of Montgomery (overall PLV of 4.94), it does mean there should be some brighter days ahead for Montgomery.
Luck aside, there is no denying Montgomery’s dynasty value is as low as it has ever been. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, his walk rate is the highest since 2018, and he’s not getting any younger. To make matters worse, Montgomery’s ERA over his last four starts sits above 9.
Cristian Javier – HOU
Following the 2022 season, it seemed as though Houston had found another future ace. Not only did I have the pleasure of watching Javier start a no-hitter in Yankee Stadium that season, but I also watched him be the primary pitcher in the Astros’ no-hitter in the World Series against my Phillies. Even without overpowering velocity, Javier’s pure stuff looked untouchable at times. His slider dives down and away from righties, while his knuckle-curve effectively dealt with lefties. Unfortunately, since that season, it has all been downhill for Javier.
With expectations high entering 2023, Javier was viewed as one of the bigger disappointments last season. He threw a career-high 162 innings but finished the season with a 4.56 ERA. Even more disappointing was the disappearance of his strikeouts. Javier struck out 33.2% of batters in 2022, before seeing that number drop by over 10% in 2023.
The biggest difference for Javier was his inability to attack left-handed batters. His heavy reliance on two pitches always created this potential, but he seemed to put to rest any qualms in 2022. That season, lefties hit just .189/.274/.318 off of Javier. Flash forward to 2023, lefties slashed at an All-Star level, batting .273/.345/.470, and the situation has only gotten worse in 2024. Through seven starts, lefties hit an incredible .306/.411/.548. How do you beat Javier? The answer became simple; just fill your lineup with left-handed batters.
This is not to say Javier did not try to make adjustments. This season, he essentially ditched his knuckle-curve in favor of a changeup. Turns out, his changeup is the only pitch that graded out with a positive run value. This pitch also scaled out as a 5.38 on PLV.
The biggest issue this season was the continued regression of his four-seam fastball. Javier relied on this pitch nearly 60% of the time since making his Major League debut, with great success. The difference this year is that his average fastball velocity dipped below 92 mph. His PLV on the pitch has dropped from 5.3 in 2022, to 5.1 in 2023, all the way down to 4.78 in 2024. His Stuff+ has dropped in similar fashion from 123, down to 101 in 2023 and 2024. Much of Javier’s success on the mound came from his four-seamer, and it now grades out as a below average pitch.
Javier’s dynasty value was already falling fast before news came out that he is going to miss the remainder of 2024 thanks to Tommy John Surgery. This injury is likely to keep Javier sidelined through at least the All-Star Break of next season. Although Javier will still be just 28 years old when he hopefully returns to the mound, fantasy managers have to wonder what kind of pitcher they will even be getting back. This is not the same pitcher dynasty managers fell in love with back in 2022. Javier’s dynasty value has taken another big hit this past month.
Honorable Mentions:
Michael Kopech – CWS
There was a time when Michael Kopech was a highly sought-after pitching prospect in dynasty circles. With a fastball that consistently touches triple-digits, there was plenty to fall in love with. Injuries and mental health issues derailed much of his early career, but an encouraging 2022 season had many optimistic over what the future held. After struggling last season as a starter, the White Sox decided to move Kopech to the bullpen full-time this season. This undoubtedly lowered his dynasty value, but the skills were still there for Kopech to turn into a dominant closer. Unfortunately, this has not worked out. In 29 games, Kopech owns a 4.91 ERA with a walk rate above 13%. Things have been especially bad since May 25. In his last eight appearances, Kopech owns an 11.37 ERA. Now 28 years old on a destitute team, there is very little optimism around Kopech’s future value.
Walker Buehler – LAD
Some players seem to hold more name value. Walker Buehler is one of those players. This is not to diminish Buehler’s elite stretch of pitching from 2018-2020, but for years now Buehler has seemed to be on a decline. After missing the entire 2023 season, many in the fantasy community could not wait to see him back on the mound this season. His name value alone drove up his value throughout all formats. So far, Buehler has made seven starts with underwhelming results. His ERA currently sits at 4.64 while the more concerning number is his strikeout rate. Buehler’s strikeout rate sits below 20% for the first time in his career. With his punch-outs declining, dynasty managers are becoming less optimistic of his future value. Buehler turns 30 years old in July and he seems far from the same pitcher we saw a few years ago.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Melissa Tamez / Icon Sportswire