The middle infield spot is always one, in fantasy, where you’re playing a different game than what most major league clubs are playing. Shortstop and the keystone are both positions in actual baseball that are primarily determined by fielding ability, arm strength and quickness – but most fantasy formats do not care for the first two. What can, and does, give you the advantage at these positions, in both fantasy and actual baseball, is having a plus bat. It’s why, for decades, people have fawned over the middle infielder with pop: the ARod, Alfonso Soriano-type players.
Enter dynasty formats, where now you must be able to recognize these players early, pay the proper capital for their longevity risk and also the potential that, as prospects, sometimes the hitting won’t translate to the next levels. In this article we are taking a look at how the value of some of the biggest dynasty names are fairing at two of the most important positions to setting your team apart. Analyzing who’s risen or fallen in the community consensus based on their play in the last month or so.
Stats through July 21st 2024.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out other helpful articles such as the dynasty performance report for outfielders!
Dynasty Risers
Elly De La Cruz, SS, CIN
How much higher can EDLC really climb? He’s very much in the conversation, if not the lead, for most valuable dynasty player at the moment. If he’s not your number one, he’s got to be top three with the other superstar shortstops, Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. But lets talk about Elly, the switch hitting 22-year-old shortstop has improved upon his exciting debut campaign, sanded down some of the rougher edges that worried folks last season, and has made a bigger impact on the base paths. Last year he had 427 plate appearances and this season, so far, he has accrued 426. So, this is a pretty perfect time to stop and evaluate how he’s looked comparatively.
Bottom line, he’s getting better – and that’s pretty scary, especially if you hypothesize that we aren’t close to his ceiling as one of the youngest in the game. De La Cruz’s barrel rate is up almost 4% this season, jumping from 8.5% to 12.4%, and he’s reduced his chase rate from 32.8% to 25.1%. The strikeout rate hasn’t dipped much, yet, but I imagine if he keeps working on his plate discipline, these numbers will continue to improve. It’s a tough balance, though, because when you have the chance to do the damage that Elly does with every swing, you are okay with the misses. Nonetheless, his average is up 20 points and his on base percent is up 47 points compared to last year. I have confidence that he will continue to improve with age and there will be a middle point, where the bat reaches a high enough level before his speed starts to wear a bit with age, that he will be far-and-away the most dominant fantasy player (in 5×5 formats).
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, the steals. De La Cruz has 48! No other player in the league has more than 30 currently, meaning he’s over 150% better than the next guy. I’m not sure how you compete with that, he has the potential to win you the category by himself weekly, and essentially steals a base every other game. He could legitimately swipe 80 bags this season. 80!!! He’s showing an improved ability to hit fastballs and get on base more frequently, if he gets a hang of the off speed stuff as he gains more experience… there’s no telling where the ceiling could be.
Since June 22nd, he has 31 hits, five home runs, 18 runs scored, 13 RBI, eight stolen bases, and has accrued 61 total bases for a whopping 22.3 runs created. The runs created numbers put him in a tier with guys like Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, and Shohei Ohtani during that span. He has walked 10 times in the month as well, reinforcing the improved plate discipline. I’m not sure what more you can ask of the 22-year-old. Could you argue that Witt is better right now, sure, but Witt is older by two years and I would imagine, especially in 5×5 leagues where steals will always be paramount, that most owners wouldn’t instantly accept Witt in return for ELDC. You’re probably not getting anyone to trade him, but if you’re starting a new dynasty league today there would be real reason to take him number one overall.
Jordan Westburg, 2B/ 3B, BAL
Westburg has secured his valuable second base eligibility for another season, splitting his time between the keystone and the hot corner this season at about a 40/60 split, respectively. After only taking 208 at-bats last season, the 25-year-old is up to 335 this year and is looking even better, prompting a rise up the rankings for dynasty in particular. Westburg is in the top 10% of sluggers this season with a .503 xSLG and is also in the top 20% for xBA, xwOBA, barrel rate, and speed. He has hit 22 doubles this season and added on five triples to go with 16 home runs, which has lead to his OPS rising 100 points compared to last year.
He has 50 hits in his last 46 games for 96 total bases, 23 runs scored and 24 RBI, which puts him close to the top five in 2B-eligible players in that span.
Westburg has also improved his ability to hit off-speed pitches and is doing well against heaters in his second season, he’s hitting tot he opposite at a 4% higher clip than last year and has also exchanged a good amount of what would have been flares and burners last season for barrels this season. He’s been able to reduce his popups by a serious amount, from 12% of batted ball events last year to 6% this year. He still struggles with breaking balls, struggling to create run value on sliders in his sophomore campaign, but if he keeps crushing fastballs (3.3 RV / 100 pitches) he will do more than okay. The 2024 All-Star has a chance to see his name called for the mid-summer classic perennially while surrounded by an elite roster in Baltimore, and is forcing his way into the conversation of top-50 dynasty players.
Honorable Mention
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, KC – He’s so elite that it’s almost boring to include him. In the last 30 days, Witt leads the majors in hits and is only behind Brent Rooker and Byron Buxton for runs created. He will always struggle in RBI while batting leadoff, but the boon to average or OBP is hard to look away from. He carries the power and has shown why he’s the only one who can keep Elly off the number one spot in dynasty rankings. The Home Run Derby runner-up is such a plain inclusion here because of how obviously good he is and will continue to be. Nonetheless, he is playing exceptionally well, and just because you can’t rise past the literal top of the rankings, doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be mentioned. He and EDLC are simply widening the gap.
Zach Neto, SS, LAA – I’m a big fan of Neto’s, and he’s had a really solid year, especially considering that he’s often batting towards the bottom of a pretty weak Angels order. In 5×5 OBP leagues he’s been highly valuable the last month, collecting 12 runs and 12 RBI, stealing seven bases, and hitting to a .345 OBP. Only Elly has more steals for a shortstop in that span. Neto has chipped in some power as well this season, on track to surpass 20 home runs this year with 13 already hit. If he can produce like this at age-23, he should continue to be a valuable part of any fantasy roster for a long time to come.
Dynasty Fallers
Anthony Volpe, SS, NYY
It’s hard to be a struggling player on the New York Yankees, as your missteps are highlighted more than in almost any other organization in sports – but that’s the beauty of the pinstripes, because your successes get the same treatment. Volpe has been okay this season, but certainly deserves to fall in the rankings based on his recent play. Of the 20 shortstops with at least 80 at-bats in the last month, Volpe’s OBP ranks dead last at .212. His eight runs scored and eight RBI in that span are also tied for second-worst amongst the same group.
Bottom line is that when you’re hitting either before or after the combo of Judge and Soto, who have somehow stayed healthy (knock on wood), you NEED to be more productive. That’s right, all caps italic. Volpe is in the bottom 20% of xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, and bat speed. He had a good May, hitting to an OPS above .800 in the month, but he completely regressed in June, and July has started even worse for the second year player.
Volpe’s first few games out of the All-Star break have been solid, but there’s not much hope, to me, of him being a yearly .700 OPS type player. He will struggle at best to reach those marks. As a Yankee fan, I hope to be proven wrong, but he’s not pulling the ball enough and he’s swinging on top of pitches and inducing a dizzying number of worthless grounders. He was very effective against the fastball last year, but can’t seem to do nearly the same damage this season. The strikeouts and whiffs are down, but the xBABIP (expected Batting Average on Balls In Play) is actually lower than the actual BABIP, so if you can believe it… he’s almost expected to be a bit worse. If he can fix the launch angle and spray chart problems, maybe he rises again, but I am not touching Volpe right now, unless it’s unnecessarily cheap to acquire him and you want to take the gamble given the run producing scenario in New York or a desperate need at the position. Please be wrong.
Honorable Mention
Davis Schneider, 2B/OF, TOR – Schneider is another player who had a solid spring but has seen falloff since. After seeing an extra base hit every eight at-bats in April and May, that number ballooned to every 16 at-bats in June, and now none in his 34 at-bats here in July so far. This is a player that got people excited last year based off a small sample size where he hit to a 1.300 OPS in 141 plate appearances. That was never going to keep up, as his wOBA has dropped from .424 in that short time to .311, but the xwOBA, which he was overpefroming, fell .355 to .321. So what we’re seeing this season is a lot closer to what he’s going to be in the near future. His solid contact rates have fallen off a cliff, sitting at just 5.9% this season. So he’s either making average to bad contact, or barreling the ball up – but there’s no consistency and not enough regular pop to have him get every day at bats. He’s been getting beat by fastballs all season, hitting .126 with .299 slugging against the pitch he sees the most. He’s not someone I’m starting and unless things change, these factors, which result in a 13th percentile expected batting average, will keep him from holding any fantasy value.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Frank Jansky & Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire