The 2026 season has already seen several highly regarded pitching prospects make their long-awaited major-league debuts. While some have immediately lived up to the hype, others have faced the challenges that come with adjusting to big league hitters. In this edition of Dynasty Reactions, we take a look at several recently promoted pitching prospects, breaking down their early performances, what dynasty managers should make of the results, and whether their long-term outlooks have changed.
Noah Schultz – LHP, Chicago White Sox
The Expectation
From the lanky 6-foot-10 left-hander and 2022 first-round draft pick, we expected to see Schultz attack hitters with a powerful fastball and an elite slider that features exceptional horizontal movement. The raw stuff is still evident, and the upside remains extremely high. As long as he can keep his control in check and consistently locate his pitches, Schultz has all the tools necessary to excel at the major league level.
The Results
2-4, 5.82 ERA, 38.2 IP, 30 H, 22 BB, 33 K, 1.35 WHIP.
It has been an up-and-down start for Schultz. The spin rates on both his fastball and slider have remained strong, which is an encouraging sign for his long-term outlook. However, the usage of his best pitch—the slider—has dropped considerably, sitting at just 11.4% so far this season.
He has also struggled somewhat with command, posting a 13.0% walk rate, and he has not been putting hitters away as often as dynasty managers would like, evidenced by his 19.6% strikeout rate. If Schultz can improve his command and increase the usage of his slider, the results should begin to trend in the right direction.
Dynasty Outlook
Schultz is currently on the injured list with a knee injury, so dynasty managers will need to remain patient as he works his way back. The stuff is still there, as his sweeper continues to flash elite potential, holding opposing hitters to a .160 batting average against. However, he needs to do a better job locating the pitch and consistently throwing it for strikes.
The realistic expectation for Schultz is that 2026 will be an adjustment year. Command and location will be the keys to his success, but as long as he can regain the effectiveness of his elite fastball and sweeper combination, his dynasty value remains intact. For now, dynasty managers should take a wait-and-see approach. The White Sox have a number of high-upside young players, and Schultz should remain a key part of that future core.
The Expectation
Expect Gage Jump to continue keeping hitters in check by attacking with a four-pitch mix that grades out as average to above average across the board. He typically relies on a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and can reach triple digits. He complements it with a slider and curveball that give hitters different looks and help keep them off balance.
Jump does an excellent job limiting free passes and attacking the strike zone, giving him a polished approach for a young pitcher. His ability to command multiple pitches and work efficiently should allow him to continue finding success as he gains more experience at the major league level.
The Results
2-1 | 2.45 ERA | 18.1 IP | 15 H | 5 BB | 13 K | .234 BAA | 1.09 WHIP.
Jump has exceeded expectations so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .234 batting average against while issuing just five walks in 18.1 innings pitched. He has also shown an impressive ability to work deep into games early in his major league career.
The left-hander is generating plenty of whiffs with his fastball, which owns a 27.8% whiff rate, while his slider has been equally impressive, producing a 29.2% whiff rate. The combination of swing-and-miss stuff and strong command has been a major factor in his early success.
Dynasty Outlook
Jump has a ton of talent, as evidenced by both his prospect pedigree and his ability to mix four pitches to attack hitters. He currently relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it nearly 49% of the time. While the pitch has strong underlying metrics, including a 2,325 RPM spin rate and above average movement with 9.1 inches of induced vertical break and 16.3 inches of horizontal movement, dynasty managers should hope to see him incorporate his secondary offerings more frequently as major league hitters become more familiar with the fastball. Expanding the usage of his full arsenal could make him even more difficult to game plan against.
Jump has been properly rated so far. He entered the season as one of the Athletics‘ top pitching prospects, earned a promotion to the majors, and has performed well since arriving. A realistic peak outcome is a number two starter in the Athletics‘ rotation. The stuff is very good, though not quite overpowering enough at this stage to project as a true ace. For him to reach a number one starter ceiling, he will likely need to generate more strikeouts on a consistent basis. That said, he has already shown the ability to dominate a lineup over seven innings, which is an encouraging sign for his long-term outlook.
Walbert Ureña – RHP, Los Angeles Angels
The Expectation
Ureña has taken the league by storm this season, ranking as the 17th Angels prospect in 2025 according to MLB.com. Known for his electric fastball, Ureña was largely viewed as a work in progress in other areas of his game, especially command, where he issued 223 walks across 362.2 minor league innings prior to his call up. Despite those concerns, he has excelled at the major league level so far, outperforming expectations and showing real progress in his ability to compete against big league hitters.
The Results
4-4 | 2.44 ERA | 55.1 IP | 42 H | 4 HR | 33 BB | 55 K | .206 BAA | 1.36 WHIP.
It’s safe to say that even the Angels may not have seen this coming from their 22-year-old rookie. The walk rate remains well above average at 13.6%, which will need to come down for him to sustain long term success. However, he has paired that with an above average 12.1% SwStr%, helping him generate plenty of missed bats while working through some command issues.
Dynasty Outlook
Dynasty managers should let the good times keep rolling with Ureña. Hitters are bound to make adjustments, but it is interesting that he has relied heavily on his changeup at the major league level, throwing the pitch 32% of the time. The offering has been extremely effective, holding hitters to a .158 expected batting average while generating an 18.8% hard hit rate, both well above league average marks for a pitcher.
His four-seam fastball has also been a key part of his success. While the pitch features a below average spin rate, which could become a concern down the road, he averages 97.7 mph and has consistently overpowered hitters. The sweeper and sinker have been less effective, with the sweeper allowing a 33.3% hard hit rate and the sinker allowing a 42.4% hard hit rate. For Ureña to sustain long term success, he will need to improve his walk rate and continue developing confidence in all four pitches to keep major league hitters off balance.
Ureña has far exceeded expectations this season. While I still view his ceiling as a middle of the rotation starter for the Angels, dynasty managers who have added or streamed him should be thrilled with the results so far. If he can refine his command and continue developing his secondary pitches, there may be even more upside than originally expected.
Andrew Painter – RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
The Expectation
A former first round pick back in 2021. Painter was on the fast track to the big leagues reaching Double A at just 19 years old. And at one point was rated as high as the best pitching prospect in baseball. Painter has elite stuff, a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s paired up with an elite curveball and an above average change up. Just 23 years old dynasty managers were anticipating Painter to live up to his lofty expectations.
The Results
1-7 | 6.21 ERA | 58.0 IP | 72 H | 11 HR | 19 BB | 47 K | .308 BAA | 1.57 WHIP.
The Phillies’ 23 year old 6-foot-7 right hander has certainly had a rough start to his major league career. This is not what Phillies fans were hoping for, especially considering the club already boasts a rotation featuring multiple All Stars and arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Cristopher Sánchez.
It has not all been negative, however. Painter has posted a 7.3% walk rate, showing that he can command the strike zone. His fastball averages 96.6 mph, showcasing the quality of his raw stuff. His slider has also been impressive from a pitch characteristics standpoint, generating an above average 2,534 RPM spin rate while featuring well above average vertical and horizontal movement.
The issue has simply been that he is getting hit too hard right now. Opponents own a .307 expected batting average against his fastball, while his slider, arguably his second best pitch, has a .276 expected batting average against. Those are also the two pitches he relies on most frequently, with usage rates of 33% and 20%, respectively.
Dynasty Outlook
For dynasty managers, Painter is certainly a long term hold until further notice. There is no reason to give up on his potential, but he clearly needs to make some adjustments to his mechanics and continue refining his pitch mix if he is going to fully tap into his immense talent and arsenal.
One encouraging sign is that control and walks have not been a major issue, which is often a hurdle for young pitchers making the jump to the major leagues. At this point, however, Painter is not a reliable streaming option in most fantasy formats. A temporary trip back to Triple A could benefit his development, allowing him to regroup, make adjustments, and regain confidence before returning to face major league hitters.
Unfortunately, Painter does fall into the underperforming category based on the immense prospect pedigree and hype he carried into the season. After earning the Phillies’ fifth rotation spot out of camp, expectations were understandably high. While the results have been disappointing so far, dynasty managers should remember that he is still just 23 years old and possesses the type of talent that made him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The long-term outlook remains strong, even if the short-term results have not matched the expectations.
JR Richie – RHP, Atlanta Braves
The Expectation
One of the top prospects in the Atlanta Braves system, JR Ritchie is known for his ability to command the strike zone and limit runs. With a career 2.81 ERA in the minor leagues, he has shown the ability to move quickly through a farm system while consistently producing results. His arsenal features a fastball that can reach the upper 90s, along with an effective slider and changeup that help keep hitters off balance.
While his stuff is not necessarily overpowering, Ritchie has demonstrated the ability to generate strikeouts at an average to above average rate while limiting damage. His polished approach and ability to throw quality strikes give him a solid foundation as he continues to develop toward a major league role.
The Results:
1-1 | 4.56 ERA | 25.2 IP | 21 H | 4 HR | 16 BB | 21 K | .221 BAA | 1.44 WHIP.
It has been an up and down start for Ritchie. While the .221 batting average against has been encouraging, his 4.56 ERA can be frustrating for dynasty managers. However, that may not tell the whole story. His 4.06 expected ERA paints a more favorable picture and suggests he has pitched better than the surface numbers indicate.
One area that will need to improve if Ritchie is going to find long term success at the major league level is his fastball. The pitch currently averages 94.4 mph, which is right around league average, but it has generated just a 5.6% SwStr%, well below the major league average. There are some encouraging signs, though. Ritchie generates above average spin and above average horizontal movement on the pitch, traits that could allow him to utilize it more effectively as a two seam fastball when needed. On top of that, the pitch has allowed just a 38.9% hard hit rate, which is better than league average.
The curveball, currently his most frequently used pitch at 26%, has been hit a little too hard, allowing a 50% hard hit rate. Refining both the fastball and curveball will be key if he wants to take the next step. If he can make those adjustments, there is reason to believe the swing and miss ability could improve from its current 18.4% strikeout rate.
Ritchie has shown that he can attack hitters and work deep into games at the major league level. The question for dynasty managers is whether he can do it consistently over a larger sample. Patience is still warranted, as he is only 22 years old, and his four pitch mix, combined with above average spin rates and solid underlying metrics, gives him plenty of long term upside.
Ritchie has underperformed slightly relative to expectations, but the overall profile remains encouraging. Based on what we have seen so far, a realistic outcome is a reliable middle to back end of the rotation starter who can provide quality innings. To continue climbing the dynasty starting pitcher ranks, he will need to generate more swing and miss while cutting down on the walks. Even so, there are plenty of positive indicators that suggest he can develop into a valuable fantasy asset over time.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) | Photos by Joe Robbins & Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire
