Third base is a fun position in fantasy baseball every single year. Traditionally, the position has been manned by big bopping sluggers, and while that’s still generally true, talent runs the spectrum at the position this year. Need a 30+ homer bat? You’ll find it here. Looking for a speedster set to swipe 20+ bags? Yep, third base has that too. Batting average contributors? They’re here if you look closely enough.
Much ink has been spilled in the fantasy baseball community trying to define the words “sleeper” and “bust.” Let’s keep it simple. For this article, a sleeper is any player I believe will outperform their average draft position, while a bust is the inverse: a player who I think will underperform their draft-day price. While I’m utilizing a broad definition of sleepers and busts, I tried to provide players across the ADP spectrum. You’ll see both early-round picks and late-round fliers below.
ADP data comes from all drafts on the NFBC platform since February 10.
Sleepers
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves — ADP 65
After two straight down seasons at the dish, fantasy baseball managers are growing tired of waiting on Riley to recapture his All-Star form. Riley had become a staple early-round draftee in recent seasons, and now he’s tumbled a few rounds, going as the fifth third baseman off draft boards in the sixth round of 12-team leagues. With Riley’s stock dropping, I’m more than happy to buy the dip.
While Riley has only played in 110 and 102 games in the last two years, it doesn’t feel fair to slap the injury-prone label on him just yet. His 2024 injury was a total fluke, as he was hit by a pitch, which fractured his hand and ended his season in mid-August. In 2025, he underwent surgery for a sports hernia, ending his campaign in early August. The hand injury is a total fluke, and while it’s fair to have a bit of concern about the sports hernia recurring, the fact that it was surgically addressed gives me hope that he should be entering 2026 with a clean bill of health.
When Riley has played full seasons, all he’s done is produce. From 2021-2023, his average stat line was: .286/.354/.525 with 36 HR, 99 R, and 99 RBI. He finished as a top-25 hitter in fantasy baseball in each of those seasons while garnering down-ballot MVP votes.
Before injuries prematurely ended his 2024 and 2025 seasons, Riley’s production at the plate had dipped, but the underlying numbers hadn’t.
After two down years, 2026 feels like a “prove-it” year for Riley, and I think he’ll bounce back in a huge way. There aren’t a lot of players going near him in drafts who both have his fantasy upside and have a track record of being a top performer.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies — ADP 248
I’m sure Bohm isn’t a name appearing on a lot of sleeper lists this offseason. He’s as steady as they come, and there aren’t a lot of underlying numbers that will tell you that he’s about to take a major step forward. So why would I include him? He’s being drafted well below his typical level of performance.
Since 2022, Bohm has posted a .280/.326/.423 slash line with average counting stats of 15 HR, 67 R, 81 RBI, and a sprinkling of stolen bases. If there’s any player that really deserves the “oatmeal” moniker — bland and unexciting, yet reliable and productive — it just might be Bohm.
With his current ADP of 248, Bohm is the 20th third baseman coming off the draft board. In each of the last four seasons, though, he’s pretty easily outperformed that ranking, finishing as the 11th, 11th, eighth, and 15th third baseman according to FanGraphs’ Auction Calculator set up for 12-team standard 5×5 settings. Bohm isn’t a league-winner, but he’s the exact type of player that smart fantasy managers target in the late rounds, knowing that in all likelihood, he’ll pretty safely overperform his draft slot.
The Phillies are continuing to run back the core of their roster again this year, so with things shaping up similarly to recent seasons, we know we can bank on Bohm having a prime place in a great lineup. He started 120 games last year, and hit between third through sixth in the lineup in 85 of those contests.
Bohm also carries a very underrated skill: batting average. Few hitters have a better hit tool than he does, especially this late in drafts. Over the past four seasons, Bohm’s .280 average ranks 25th among qualified hitters, so he’s a good option if your team is lagging behind in that category in the later rounds.
Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks — ADP 350
Lawlar has long been considered one of the game’s top prospects. After he slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases across Double and Triple-A in 2023, he was awarded a 34-plate-appearance cup of coffee with the big league club, but didn’t stick the landing, and posted a measly .335 OPS.
A torn ligament in his thumb derailed his 2024 season before it could even start, and just when he was returning from that, a persistent hamstring strain limited him to just 23 games in the minor leagues. Lawlar again opened the season in the minors in 2025, and although he missed more time with a recurrence of the hamstring issue, he hammered Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .313/.403/.564 slash line with 11 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Lawlar finally returned to the show late in the season but struggled with inconsistent playing time, posting a .545 OPS.
The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Nolan Arenado initially boxed Lawlar out of a regular lineup spot, but with injuries to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll, Lawlar seems primed to take over an outfield role and has even been starting in center field early in Spring Training. He’s one of many players who will be adding new fantasy positional eligibility this season.
Lawlar’s current ADP is so low that he’s going undrafted in most standard leagues. With pretty much zero draft day price, I love taking Lawlar and betting that his immense prospect upside shines through now that he should finally have an everyday role with the Dbacks. The positional flexibility is an added bonus.
As the 27th third baseman being drafted, Lawlar’s upside this late seems unmatched at the position. He’s shown legitimate 20 HR/30 SB upside in the minors. Lawlar’s still just 23 years old and should be given every chance to prove himself at the game’s highest level.
Busts
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays — ADP 15
It feels dangerous to label one of the game’s premier talents, who, at 21 years old and in his first full MLB season, hit 45 home runs, a bust. But here we are.
The biggest thing that scares me about Caminero is that so much of his production last year came with the Rays temporarily playing their home games in a minor league ballpark. George M. Steinbrenner Field boosted offense to right-handed hitters the third most of any stadium. Its Statcast Park Factor for right-handed production was 107, and it was particularly good for right-handed home runs at 127. Comparatively, Tropicana Field’s three-year rolling Park Factor for right-handed offense was 98, ranking 23rd among big league parks.
As you’d expect with that kind of home park environment, Caminero had quite the home/road split last year.
If you don’t buy into the park change having an effect on Caminero this year, that last column in the above table tells you why. His BABIP discrepancy between home and road games was astronomical, and the odds are that he fares better on the road this year. But even with better numbers away from Tropicana Field, I’m still concerned enough about his performance at home that I’m avoiding Caminero in drafts.
It might not be smart to bet against a player with the kind of talent that Caminero brings to the table, but with his current ADP in the late-first, early-second round, I’d prefer to play it safe with one of my first two picks. There are plenty of great players with fewer question marks who have an ADP within three picks of Caminero: Garrett Crochet, Gunnar Henderson, Fernando Tatis Jr., Cal Raleigh, Nick Kurtz, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Eugenio Suárez, Cincinnati Reds — ADP 94
Suárez is a classic case of a veteran player coming off an incredible season that he’s unlikely to repeat. In 2025, Suárez hit .228 with 49 HR, 91 R, and 118 RBI. Those 49 crush jobs tied his previous career high from 2019, but in between those two monster home run seasons, Suárez never eclipsed 31 home runs in any other campaign. As alluring as an almost-50-homer season can be, the heavy odds are that he regresses back into the 30-homer range.
Fantasy managers have been concerned about the massive swing-and-miss in Suárez’s game since 2019, when his strikeout rate jumped up to the high-20s for the first time. He’s pretty comfortably stayed in that ballpark during each of the last six seasons, and while he’s shown he can succeed while punching out often, the further he gets into his 30s, the scarier it becomes that his strikeout issues will weigh down his production.
Suárez will turn 35 in July, and the combination of a home run drop-off and growing concern about a quick collapse due to his age and strikeout propensity has me avoiding him in drafts.
Recently, we’ve even seen long stretches in which Suárez’s performance has severely plummeted. The first half of 2024 was not kind to Suárez. He hit just .216 with 10 home runs, good for a .366 SLG and 87 wRC+. His massive 154 second-half wRC+ brought his season-long numbers back to his career norms. It was a similar story last year, just in reverse. Suárez tore the cover off the ball, hitting .250 with 18 home runs and a 140 wRC+ in the first half of 2025, before falling to a .196 average, 18 home runs, and a 103 wRC+ after the All-Star break.
Cincinnati is undeniably a great landing spot for Suárez. Not only is it a fantastic park to hit in, but he should feel very familiar there, having called it home from 2015-2021.
While Suárez should feel right at home with the Reds, I’m worried that a prolonged slump could have him losing playing time. Cincinnati only signed him to a one-year deal, so they’re not locked in to Suárez long term, and with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Sal Stewart, and Spencer Steer all vying for playing time at the infield corners and at DH, if Suárez faces extended struggles, the team could pivot to a younger option.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
