Catchers often get a bad rap in fantasy baseball. Unless you’re using an early-round pick on one of the game’s premier receivers, it typically feels like you’re just drafting a lottery ticket that you hope can stay on the field and produce anywhere near league average in the batter’s box. Thankfully, that bleak picture is getting a little brighter.
A recent wave of young, capable-hitting backstops has hit MLB during the last few years, and fantasy baseball is better for it. In 2024, of catchers who accumulated at least 300 plate appearances, 17 posted a wRC+ of at least 100. In 2023 that number was just 13. In 2022 it was 11.
If taking a catcher in the first 10 rounds isn’t your thing, there are now plenty of intriguing options to be had later which is especially helpful for those of us who enjoy the pain of two-catcher leagues. Let’s try to identify some catchers that should overperform their already low ADP.
All ADP data is courtesy of NFBC drafts that have taken place over the last two weeks.
Sean Murphy (C15, ADP 204)
2024 stats (264 PA): .193 AVG, 10 HR, 19 R, 25 RBI, 0 SB
Last season was not kind to the Atlanta Braves. The team still found its way to the postseason, but significant injuries cost key contributors months of missed time if it didn’t end their seasons altogether. Sean Murphy was one of those affected.
An oblique strain on Opening Day sidelined Murphy for nearly two full months, and when he returned on May 27th he was never really himself. Murphy recently acknowledged his 2024 struggles to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, saying “Missing that much time at the beginning, that’s not how I wanted to begin the season. I’m not sure my swing ever felt correct coming off the oblique, not that I was in any pain or hurt. Some things just fell off, and I never caught up and found a way to adjust.”
It’s not uncommon to see a player coming off an injury-marred season to cast blame on their poor health, but it bares out in Murphy’s statistics. His barrel rate dropped to a career-low as his groundball rate spiked to a new high. Given his previous record of success at the dish, I think we can write off 2024 as a lost year.
As the 15th catcher off the board, I’m happy to take a chance on a bounce-back campaign from the former All-Star.
Iván Herrera (C18, ADP 221)
2024 stats (259 PA): .301 AVG, 5 HR, 37 R, 27 RBI, 5 SB
With Willson Contreras’s move to first base, Iván Herrera has a chance to lock down the starting catcher job in St. Louis for years to come. Herrera had small cups of coffee with the big league club in 2022 and 2023, but in 2024, he finally got an extended look and made the most of it. His 127 wRC+ last year was the third-best among all catchers who received at least 250 plate appearances.
In today’s game, Herrera’s .301 batting average really jumps off the page, and while his .370 BABIP points to regression in that department, it may not fall as far as you expect. Herrera has a very nice batted-ball profile. He’s not going to wow you with gaudy barrel rates or exit velocity numbers, but above-average bat speed combined with his ability to keep contact in the launch-angle sweet spot supports his favorable results. He didn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify for leaderboards, but if he did his .293 Statcast xBA would be 90th+ percentile and his .366 xwOBA isn’t far behind.
Herrera has surprising stolen base upside for a catcher too. His five steals last year were the sixth most among all catchers. His 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed was just below league average among all players, but that number was high enough to make him the 14th fastest backstop in baseball. As the full-time starter, there’s no reason to think he won’t reach double-digit stolen base totals. Remember those wonderful years of J.T. Realmuto swiping 10+ bags and how valuable he was? Herrera has that kind of upside as the 17th catcher off the board.
I wouldn’t expect much in the power department for Herrera, but he should approach 10 home runs for the full season. Herrera’s barrel and hard-hit rates hover just above league average, but the real kicker is that he just doesn’t pull the ball in the air. His 34.8% pull rate was 14th percentile while his 26% flyball rate was 10th. That’s not a recipe for herculean power outputs, but that’s a small knock on an otherwise exciting young talent.
Ryan Jeffers (C19, ADP 228)
2024 stats (465 PA): .226 AVG, 21 HR, 56 R, 64 RBI, 3 SB
Go read that stat line again. Yes. Those stats belong to the 18th catcher off the board. Those stellar 2024 results made Jeffers the 11th most valuable catcher according to FanGraphs’ Player Rater, and every catcher above him finished with more plate appearances. It’s puzzling to see him so low in ADP.
Jeffers’ eye-catching 2024 numbers aren’t a one-season aberration either. In fact, his 107 wRC+ from 2024 pales in comparison to his 137 mark in 2023. If we combine the last two seasons, Jeffers has slashed .246/.328/.456 with 35 HR, 102 R, 107 RBI, and 6 SB across 800 plate appearances. Jeffers’ .784 OPS, .338 wOBA, and 120 wRC+ are all top five marks among catchers with at least 500 plate appearances during that time.
Minnesota’s starting catcher doesn’t have troublesome strikeout numbers, but you can nitpick poor swing decisions if you dive into his profile, but what he lacks in that department he makes up for in turning swings into production. Jeffers shines in our Contact Ability metric which models the value of the hitter making contact (or not), above the contact expectation of each pitch he sees.
Jeffers is an asset in four categories (yes, I’m counting his stolen bases because if he notches even a couple it helps as a catcher) and has been one of the best hitting backstops over the last two calendar years. With Christian Vázquez backing him up, Jeffers may sit more than the standard starting catcher, but Vázquez’s offensive production has cratered the last few years so he may start losing playing time giving Jeffers an even firmer grasp on a full-time starting gig.
Alejandro Kirk (C21, ADP 261)
2024 stats (386 PA): .253 AVG, 5 HR, 23 R, 54 RBI, 0 SB
Playing time, playing time, playing time. It’s the first rule of fantasy sports. It’s a game of opportunity after all. Understanding a team’s playing time situation gives you a leg up on your opponents, especially if you can find a place where a projection system is getting it wrong, and I think that’s what’s happening here.
All eight projection systems housed on FanGraphs project Kirk for between 414 and 436 plate appearances. That makes sense when all the projections know is that Kirk’s slipped from 541 PAs in 2022 to 422 in 2023 and 386 in 2024. There’s a huge thing that projection systems don’t know that we do, though. The other half of Toronto’s catching duo over the past few years, Danny Jansen, is now a member of the division-rival Rays.
Over 1,708 career plate appearances, Jansen’s been an exactly league-average hitter with a 100 wRC+. Not bad for a catcher. To say Toronto’s new backup options are less inspiring is an understatement. Tyler Heineman is currently the favorite to play second fiddle to Kirk, and he’s accumulated just 299 MLB plate appearances over five seasons while hitting for a measly 65 wRC+. Non-roster invitees Christian Bethancourt (71 wRC+ over 1,301 PA) and Alí Sánchez (20 wRC+ over 110 PA) aren’t much better options.
Given the meager second-catcher situation in Toronto, Kirk should get as much playing time as he can handle. As long as he stays healthy, he should blow past that 414-436 PA projection and if he does he’ll vastly outperform his 261 ADP. Kirk’s been a .251/.327/.358 hitter over the last two years. Over 500+ plate appearances, he could certainly approach 10+ HR and 50+ R and RBI. He’s also one of the few catchers going this late that won’t tank your team’s batting average.
Miguel Amaya (C27, ADP 456)
2024 stats (363 PA): .232 AVG, 8 HR, 32 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. How’s that for the first line of my forthcoming book on Miguel Amaya’s 2024 season?
With an opportunity to cement himself as the Cubs’ franchise catcher for the foreseeable future, the 25-year-old Amaya struggled immensely. It wasn’t until he made a swing change in early July, with some help from noted slugger Nelson Cruz, that Amaya really got things cooking.
Doubling your barrel rate while halving your strikeout rate is simply a thing of beauty. While it can be foolish to put too much stock in stats with this kind of small sample size, the fact that we have concrete evidence of a turning point makes me a whole lot happier to buy into this rather than if Amaya had all of a sudden turned a corner with no underlying explanation.
The Cubs brought in Carson Kelly on a two-year deal this winter, and while he poses a threat to Amaya’s playing time, I think it’s a small one. A 30-year-old Kelly who owns a .221/.293/.341 slash line since 2022 should be the clear secondary option. From July 7th until the end of the season, Amaya’s OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ were all top-10 among catchers who accumulated at least 150 plate appearances. If he can carry over that success to 2025, he’ll be both the undisputed starter in Wrigleyville and a massive steal going this late in drafts.