All’s Fair in Love and Schwarb

Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB, SB.

It’s getting to that point in the season where we start to talk about Kyle Schwarber again, who yesterday had a performance of 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB, SB. It was Schwarber’s tenth home run and third stolen base of the season. Schwarber is putting together a solid and consistent campaign as the Phillies’ leadoff man, but things may get even better in short order as we’re about to enter the season of the legendary June Schwarber.

Over the past few seasons, June has been the point in the season in which Schwarber turns things on: in 2021-2023, he posted an OPS of 1.122, 1.065, and .854, all of which were marked improvements from the early months of the season. So, the question has to be asked: is this trend simply happenstance, or does Schwarber really heat up along with the weather?

As with many questions, the answer is probably a little bit of both. We’ve seen in years past that league OPS tends to increase from the early months as the weather gets warmer, though month-by-month OPS in 2023 was largely uniform throughout the season. Still, Schwarber’s tendency to follow this trend of getting hot right around this same point in the season is difficult to ignore. The biggest difference this year is that he appears to be getting hot even earlier than before–his .835 May OPS suggests he’s seeing the ball very well, and his .280 batting average in May is his best mark in a calendar month in years. If Schwarber does indeed continue to follow his trend from years prior, we may be looking at a Summer of Schwarber the likes of which we’ve never seen before. I’m very rarely an advocate of the “Buy High” strategy, but Schwarber is one instance I can support such a move as the leadoff hitter for one of the league’s best offenses.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Monday:

Charlie Blackmon (COL): 3-4, 2 2B, HR, R, 4 RBI.

It appears Father Time may be catching up to ol’ Chuck Nazty, who hit just his second home run of the season in Monday’s victory over the Guardians. Blackmon’s current .690 OPS would be the worst of his career, and it’s largely due to a product of weak contact and low exit velocities. Blackmon’s plate discipline remains elite, as he strikes out in only 11% of his at-bats, but when you’re very rarely hitting the ball hard when you put it in play, it’s tough to produce. Blackmon should only be rostered in deep leagues when he’s playing in Coors for now.

 

George Springer (TOR): 2-3, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB.

Springer is another veteran having a difficult season, as his current .570 OPS would be a career-worst by orders of magnitude. Springer showed signs of life on Monday by launching his fourth home run of the season, but he did it from the seventh spot in the batting order. With his grip loosening on the leadoff job and his performance faltering compared to years past, it may be a smart move to sell to someone who still believes in the veteran’s track record after yesterday’s performance.

 

Kyle Stowers (BAL): 3-4, 2 2B, R, 4 RBI.

Stowers came up from Triple-A Norfolk in the move that sent Heston Kjerstad down to the minors a couple of weeks ago and in that time has recorded only 16 at-bats. Though his opportunities have been limited, Stowers made the most of yesterday’s chances by driving in four runs between his three hits. The Baltimore outfield is a crowded place at the moment, meaning there’s no recommendation to pick up Stowers for now, but he’s a name to keep in mind if one of the O’s other outfielders misses time.

 

Willy Adames (MIL): 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.

In a close contest with the division rival Chicago Cubs, Willy Adames took a 3-0 pitch from Hayden Wesneski deep to center field to break the game open with a three-run home run. It was Adames’ eighth long ball of 2024. Adames is currently on pace for another 20+ home run season and has already tied his career high in steals with eight while cutting his strikeout rate down to a more palatable 21.5%. If Adames can maintain this balance for the rest of the year, he may go down as one of the best value picks at the position.

 

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, RBI, SB.

It was a combo meal night for Jazz, who hit his eighth home run and swiped his tenth bag of the season on Monday. The counting stats won’t always be there for Jazz as a member of the Marlins, but he still has a solid slash line of .265/.336/.456 on the season and is settling into the leadoff role following the departure of Luis Arraez. The injury risk always exists for Jazz, but it sure is fun riding this hot streak while we can.

 

Trevor Larnach (MIN): 1-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Trevor Larnach doesn’t play against lefties but does have a solid .760 OPS this season when he’s in the lineup against right-handed pitching. Larnach hit his fourth home run on Monday off of Alec Marsh, which was a towering 441-foot shot. Larnach is best seen as a streaming option in daily leagues where you don’t have to stomach the headaches that come with platooning but can provide solid ratios and spurts of power when he plays.

 

CJ Abrams (WSN): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.

That’s back-to-back days with a home run for CJ Abrams, who was “boasting” a .209/.225/.256 slash line in May before the first of those home runs came on Sunday. Even with the slump, Abrams owns a .792 OPS on the season and has the potential to reach 25 home runs and steals this season. While the stolen bases haven’t come in bunches like they did last year, Abrams still possesses elite speed and plays for one of the most aggressive baserunning teams in the league. The steals and power should return as Abrams continues to adjust as a budding superstar.

 

Adam Duvall (ATL): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.

The biggest reason Adam Duvall is on this list is that he’s likely to be one of the prime beneficiaries of playing time with the horrible season-ending injury to Ronal Acuna Jr. Both he and Jarred Kelenic will likely see a big increase in their roles as long as Atlanta doesn’t make a significant move before the deadline to bring in another outfielder. Duvall is a decent streaming option for power but won’t do much to help your ratios.

 

Paul Goldschmidt (STL): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.

In about 18 hours, Paul Goldschmidt nearly doubled his season home run total by hitting two on Sunday Night Baseball and another yesterday afternoon to reach seven long balls on the year. I don’t need to tell you how brutal Goldschmidt’s season has been or how good his track record has been in the league, which makes him a tough case to evaluate from a fantasy perspective. Goldschmidt feels like a good buy-low or sell-high (ish) option at this point in the season. I can fully understand moving on if the past headaches have proved to be too much, even if he is showing signs of life.