The Butler Did It

Lawrence Butler (ATH): 3-3, HR, R, RBI.

Going into the All-Star Break in 2024, Lawrence Butler was a fantasy afterthought with a .211 Batting Average, nine homers, and six steals. His OPS hovered below .700, he had just 16 extra-base hits in 193 plate appearances, and had only scored 20 runs.

We all know what happened next, but the numbers might be even better than you remember. Post-ASB, Butler went OFF and hit 13 homers, added 12 steals, and batted exactly .300. He also scored 43 runs in just over 60 games played, with 32 XBHs in 258 PAs.

So yeah, Butler hasn’t exactly been amazing thus far in 2025. With the shift to a minor league ballpark and an improved Athletics lineup around him, Butler was a trendy draft pick going in the sixth or seventh round. But he struggled out of the gate and was eventually dropped in the batting order in favor of Jacob Wilson, who’s been an absolute menace in his rookie campaign.

Last night, though, Butler and Wilson were positioned at first and second on the lineup sheet, and though the A’s may have lost 11-1, hopefully that order will stick. Butler seems to thrive in the leadoff role but is pretty mediocre anywhere else in the lineup, as you can see below:

So yeah, Butler’s been off to a slow start—but it’s miles above what he did last year. If he again finds that extra gear in the second half, you’re looking at a fantasy All-Star and a great return as your second outfielder.

One caveat, though: LB’s only hitting .146 against lefties with an almost 40% K-rate. But last year, he was actually better against lefties, hitting .291 compared to .255 (and an OPS of .838). So don’t expect to see him in a platoon just yet.

Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday

Jose Altuve (HOU): 4-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.

Would you draft this player in your top-50? .232 expected Batting Average, a first-percentile Sweet-Spot rate, and an average EV of 85. 1 mph. At 35, the player’s got a career-low xwoBACON, is hitting more balls on the ground than ever before, and is barely getting on base 30% of the time.

Well, that player was Jose Altuve, but that would be before last night’s performance. And he’s been on a tear, raising his Batting Average over forty points with four homers since May 22nd. After starting the first 45 games with a .629 OPS, he looks like a different guy. Time will tell, though, if he can justify that top-50 draft spot.

 

Christian Walker (HOU): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.

Here’s another underachieving Astro showing signs of life. On Monday night, Walker blasted a game-winning homer into the Crawford Boxes and followed that up with another dinger last night, a two-run shot at 106.5 mph. Walker’s had some bad luck early on in the season—his xBA is actually two points higher than last year (.248 vs .246), though his actual average is 38 points lower—and most of his advanced metrics are at least in the ballpark of years past. His K-minus-Walk rate ballooned early on from 14.1% last year to 20.3%, but that’s starting to improve along with his xwOBA and other metrics. Expect better days ahead, and hopefully, Yordan Alvarez comes back soon to round out the trio.

 

Elly De La Cruz (CIN): 2-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.

Elly was slumping at the beginning of May, slogging through a 5-for-34 stretch with a real lapse in power. But any worries can be put to rest after last night, especially after he parked a ball into the second tier of the Kauffman Stadium waterfalls. The towering, 451-foot blast was his second dong of the game as he also dropped another long home run near the Batter’s Eye in center. Both shots were from Elly’s power side (hitting lefty) and were well over 110 mph.

Elly is second only to Michael Toglia in strikeouts this year, but his K-rate is dipping ever so slightly to 28.6% (last year’s was 31.3%), and he’s still walking around 10% of the time. One thing to point out, though: Statcast is surprisingly showing that Elly’s 100th-percentile sprint speed has dipped from 30.0 f/s to 28.9. This might be why he’s only stolen four bases in May (and been caught twice, for a not-great 67% success rate). Keep an eye on his run game to see if anything might be off (especially since he had 31 steals at this point in 2024, and is only at 17 now).

Whatever it is slowing him on the basepaths, though, isn’t affecting the bat.

 

Christian Yelich (MIL): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, SB.

Yelich was having a quiet night until he came up with the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth inning. Facing Liam Hendriks, Yelich worked a 1-1 count before turning on an 85-mph slider and putting it in the seats for a walk-off grand slam. Surprisingly, it’s Yelich’s first career walk-off dinger. Yelich’s K-rate has jumped up this year to 26.5%, and many of his metrics have been trending downward (his xwOBA is a career-worst .311, well below even his career average of .372). Still, even though he’s only hitting .210, he’s now up to double digits in steals and homers, on pace for a 30/30 season.

 

Cal Raleigh (SEA): 2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.

What more can be said? Big Dumper is lapping the catcher field and will win a lot of fantasy leagues for a lot of people. Nationals pitcher Mitchell Parker learned a tough lesson today: first, he tried to get a 93-mph fastball past Raleigh in the opening inning—a big mistake as Raleigh parked it into the left-field upper deck. Then, with an 0-2 count, Parker inconceivably threw a down-the-middle 87-mph splitter, which Cal laser-beamed over the left-field wall. It’s Raleigh’s third multi-homer game of the season and the second of the month. He’s also become a boost in the average department, with nine hits in his last five games and a .295 batting average in May. He’s the best-hitting catcher in baseball right now, period.

 

Miguel Vargas (CHW): 2-5, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Vargas has quietly become the Sox’s most reliable and potent bat, racking up fourteen doubles (seventh-most in the American League) and eight homers. Cast off by the Dodgers last year, Vargas was once a promising prospect who oozed points league potential. He only has a .316 OBP on the season, but his expected stats are quite a bit higher, and he’s actually been batting .316 over his last thirty games with a 15:8 K:BB rate. He’s also cooking a .932 OPS in May. There’s potential here.

 

Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 1-3, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.

That’s three straight games with a homer for Ohtani, who’s coming on in a big way. After a modest April (for him, at least) with a .917 OPS and just five homers, Shohei’s been scorching in May with 13 bombs and a 1.176 OPS. It looks like he and Aaron Judge will be competing for the home run crown all year long (and don’t count out Schwarber or Cal Raleigh). Like Elly, though, Ohtani’s SB pace has lagged as he nabbed just two bags so far this month and has been caught three times. Don’t worry too much, though—last year he had just 14 steals through June and then nabbed 36 bags after the All-Star Break. The steals will come in bunches soon enough.

 

Wenceel Pérez (DET): 1-3, HR, R, RBI.

Pérez had been on the shelf all year due to spine inflammation, but came back in a big way with a home run in his first at-bat against Logan Webb. The AL-leading Tigers slotted Pérez sixth in their lineup and appear to believe in his skills. Last season, the 25-year-old went 9/9 in just under 400 at-bats, so with a little luck, he could reach double-digits in both those categories this year. He’s got decent contact skills with a ~20% K-rate (though he struck out twice yesterday) and should improve on last year’s 4.3% Barrel Rate. The lineup around him has improved a lot since last year, and the Tigers are cooking, so he’s worth a look if you’re desperate for an outfielder.