All’s Wells That Ends Wells
Austin Wells (NYY): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 5 RBI, SB.
Wells got a lot of people excited as a catcher who might be hitting leadoff for one of the most potent offenses in the league. He was the first player to homer this season, parking one to right-center field in his first at-bat. It wasn’t long before other Yankees emerged, however (Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt have all taken turns batting first), and Wells was relegated to the bottom half of the order. His value took a hit but he’s still returning value as a top-ten catcher from his ADP of 175.
That value just went up. Last night’s game against the Padres was a low-scoring affair early on, knotted 2-2 going into the seventh. But after the Padres got a go-ahead run in the top of the inning, Wells came up with runners on first and third with no one out. He laced a first-pitch sinker to right field at 104.7 mph to plate his first RBI of the inning. Then the Yankees started a hit parade, including a bases-clearing double from Ben Rice. The Yankees weren’t done, though, and would load the bases a second time. In his second at-bat of the inning, Wells worked a 3-2 count by taking a few pitches just outside the zone, and then jumped on a Wandy Peralta change-up, driving it for a Grand Slam on the short porch. At 107.9 mph, it was his second barrel of the inning.
The Yankees must have a thing for Wells as they’ve drafted him twice, first in the 35th round out of High School in 2016 and then as the 28th overall pick in the first round just two years later. He made steady progress as he ascended through the minors, hitting 20 and then 17 homers in 2022 and 2023 across multiple levels, and made it to the big club for a 19-game stint in ’23. He hit .229 in that cup of coffee and had an identical average in 115 games the next year, but showed improvements in his on-base skills with an 11.4% walk rate. That’s dipped down to 6.8% this year, but he’s already up to thirteen barrels, including the ones last night, compared to the 24 he put up in ’24. In a great lineup and a park that favors lefties, Wells is knocking on the door to being a top-5 backstop this year and beyond.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday
Freddie Freeman (LAD): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Some thought Freeman would be a bust this year (guilty). The signs were there, from his hobbled postseason (though he still raked when it mattered) to his performance and health in the Spring. But look where we are: Freeman has the highest OPS of any Dodgers starter and is batting a still-in-his-prime .344. Curiously, while his bat speed is just in the 15th percentile, everything else he does is elite, including a 93.2 mph average exit velo, a 15:11 K:BB ratio, and a .447 xwOBA. The only negative? His sprint speed has slowed a few ticks to 25.7 f/s (was 26.9 two years ago when he surprisingly topped 20 steals), so don’t expect much on the basepaths. Other than that, he’s making us doubters eat their words.
Alec Bohm (PHI): 1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Bohm was one of five qualifying players going into yesterday without a home run, but he’d cut that list to four with an opposite-field shot off Drew Rasmussen. It wasn’t exactly a bomb—at 97.2 mph and 342 feet, it would’ve gone out in seven of thirty MLB parks—but it plated two runs all the same. Bohm’s metrics are surprisingly strong, and he’s been good for 15-20 homers in years past, but so far his slugging is down 138 points from last season, and his OPS is down from .780 to .580. But there’s really nothing in his approach that looks different, other than his dropping to eighth in the order, which will cap his run production significantly (he had 97 RBIs in each of the last two seasons). Still, a bounceback is coming.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, SB.
He. Just. Continues. To. Rake. Schwarber is thriving in the cleanup spot this year, hitting .319 with a 1.124 OPS in 89 plate appearances. He also has an incredible 20.2% walk rate batting fourth, good for a career-high .410 OBP so far this season. With a second-inning shot (like Bohm, also off Rasmussen), he’s up to a league-leading twelve homers and on pace for 220 combined runs and RBIs. Another benefit to batting cleanup, Schwarber is netting a few more swipes as he follows faster runners on the double steal. With a 19th-percentile sprint speed and just five steals the last two seasons combined, it pays to run behind Trea Turner.
Carlos Correa (MIN): 3-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.
A former first-overall draft pick, Correa is halfway through a 6-year, $200 million deal with the Twins. Though plantar fasciitis cut his season short last year, he was an All-Star with a .310 batting average and .905 OPS, swatting 14 homers in 319 at-bats. This year has been a struggle, however, as he’s hitting just .233 and his OBP is over a hundred points less than in 2024. He may be able to turn it around, though, and hopefully last night’s performance will help—his second homer of the season was an absolute torpedo, 458 feet off the bat and into the upper deck. His Process chart might be trending down of late, but expect a reversal soon.
Byron Buxton (MIN): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
Buxton has always had the tools. But along with his injury-riddled history, there’s been too much swing-and-miss in his game to be a consistent fantasy asset. Healthy and happy so far this year, Buxton has played in 33 games and has scored 24 runs, fourth-most in the American League. He’s also got two triples and seven homers, and for the first time since 2017, Buxton is showing off his speed, with seven steals already—he had the same number all of last year and last topped a dozen swipes in 2019. Expect more: Statcast metrics show him with 30.1 f/s sprint speed, tops in the Majors. He won’t help you in batting average, though, as he leads the AL in K’s.
Jung Hoo Lee (SFG): 3-6, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
No offense to PCA, but JHL might end up the steal of the draft, rewarding his ‘hooleegan’ fanbase with superior contact skills and timely base hits. Lee’s sporting a .304 batting average and looking like the player the Giants expected when they acquired him last year (when a dislocated shoulder ended his season early). Though he struggled to a .641 OPS before that injury, he had an Arraez-level 8.2% K-rate and an xBA of .278, so this breakout is not a complete surprise. Not known as a power guy, he’s got a 94th-percentile Squared-Up rate that has propelled him to be top-ten in the NL in hits. But 17 of those hits have gone for extra bases, so he’s not just tapping singles.
Julio Rodríguez (SEA): 1-1, HR, R, RBI.
After going 32/37 in 2023, J-Rod was a top-5 pick going into last year. But he came back to earth, barely clearing 20/20 and finishing the year with a .734 OPS. A famous slow-starter, Rodriguez might be turning the corner on another slow beginning, where he’s hovered around .200 with not a lot of power. But he’s got two homers in his last five games and is slugging .647 in May, as all the Mariners seem to be on fire. With six homers and five steals already, Julio could return to the 30/30 club provided he gets on his usual summer heater. Still, his whiff and chase metrics show he’s still got work to do in his approach.
Royce Lewis (MIN): 0-4.
In a game where the Twins plated nine runs, Lewis didn’t partake in the offensive barrage, going hitless in four appearances. In his season debut and batting fifth, Lewis first came up with a man on first and no outs, and grounded into a double play. He made solid contact, though—it was a 99.5 mph oppo shot, just right at the fielder. Lewis reached on an error in his next appearance in what should have been a groundout to third, then flew out in his third at-bat, connecting at 95.2 mph but getting under it. A lineout would end his night, but it took a diving catch by Cedric Mullins to take away a hit. Though the box score shows a bunch of zeros, it was a promising return for Lewis, who will put up big numbers for the Twins once he gets comfortable (if he can stay on the field).
