Brooks Baseball
Brooks Lee (MIN): 1-5, HR, R, RBI.
It’s a well-established rule of fantasy baseball that any top prospect you stash for several months is destined to flame out upon being called up to the majors. Meanwhile, every unheralded minor leaguer that your opponents pick up throughout the season will promptly blossom into MVP-caliber, league-winning players. Listen, I don’t make the rules. That’s just the way it is.
And unfortunately this is a banner year for the phenomenon, as we’ve seen highly-regarded prospects like Wyatt Langford, Kyle Manzardo, and Jackson Holliday scuffle badly out of the gate while draft afterthoughts like Jackson Merrill, Mark Vientos, and Brenton Doyle play like they’ve been mainlining Super Soldier serum all winter.
Hopefully you caught onto this pattern and picked up the unheralded Brooks Lee earlier this month when the Twins called him up to fill in for the perpetually injured Royce Lewis. Because, true to form, the man has hit the ground running. With his 1-5, HR, R, RBI performance last night, Lee has now hit safely in 7 of the 8 games he’s played since his debut, and has a sparkling .947 OPS to boot.
Brooks never flashed much power in the minors prior to this season, though he did have a track record of being a skilled contact hitter. Based on the early returns with regard to his bat speed and quality-of-contact metrics, it seems like that more hit-tool focused profile will carry over to the majors. Which is great, of course. Everybody loves a switch-hitting infielder with a high floor and both SS and 3B eligibility. Just temper your expectations regarding the power. Because despite the early returns, there likely isn’t 20+ home run pop here. Though, frankly, he may not need it to outperform phenoms like James Wood or Jordan Lawlar. After all, rules are rules.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday
Willy Adames (MIL): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
Adames has rebounded from a brutal June that saw him hit just .167 to post his third multi-hit game this month and push his monthly OPS up to .899. There’s a lot to like in Adames’ peripherals—including the lowest strikeout rate, highest walk rate, and highest Max EV of his career. He could be in for a big second-half.
Sam Hilliard (COL): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Sam Hilliard can crush a baseball. This we know. The problem is, it’s essentially a coin flip as to whether a Hilliard swing will generate contact or a gentle breeze for fans sitting behind home plate. Don’t bother chasing this.
Kyle Isbel (KCR): 2-3, HR, 3 R, RBI, BB, SB.
Frankly, getting a home run or a steal out of Kyle Isbel is cause for celebration. So getting both at once is truly a treat. Isbel is here for his defense, and there’s nothing notable going on under the hood here offensively, so it’s safe to move along.
Joey Loperfido (HOU): 2-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Loperfido’s rookie season has been a bit of a rollercoaster. He hit the ground running shortly after his debut, then struggled to secure regular playing time, was demoted, and has now gotten more regular at-bats albeit with lackluster results. He’s currently flashing poor plate discipline skills, minimal contact ability, and is being buoyed by a .444 (!) BABIP on the season. It might be time to move on.
Alec Burleson (STL): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
The power output from Burleson isn’t necessarily surprising. Neither is the .282 AVG—he’s struck out at just at 13.7% clip throughout his career. What has been interesting is the 7 stolen bases he’s amassed this year—including 5 over his last 30 games. Though I wouldn’t expect this to continue—he’s one of the slowest runners in baseball by sprint speed—there’s no arguing that Burleson has put together an incredible first half for fantasy purposes. He’s well on his way to a 25+ HR, 100 RBI campaign, and it all looks legit.
Nolan Arenado (STL): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
Arenado is a lot like Mufasa—teetering off the edge of a cliff, barely hanging onto fantasy relevance by the tips of his ragged, broken claws. He’s swatted two homers and hit .288 these last two weeks, which may boost his value enough to make him appealing to someone in a trade. And if someone is willing to take him, you should pounce. Because the quality-of-contact metrics are as bad as anyone in the league’s (27.5% Hard Hit, 2.9% barrel rate). In other words, to keep with the analogy, Scar is moving in for the kill. Jump to safety while you have the chance.
Matt Wallner (MIN): 2-4, HR, R, RBI.
Wallner was something of a sleeper heading into the season, as he racked up an absurd 18.8% barrel rate last year on his way to swatting 14 home runs in just 213 at-bats. Though he didn’t secure a full-time role with the team out of spring training, he’s getting some run now, and the power certainly still plays. It’s hard to see a path to regular at-bats for Wallner, as the Twins continue to cycle Larnach, Buxton, Miranda, Santana, Kepler, and Margot through their OF and DH spots. That said, he could push Larnach out of the picture with more games like this, so it’s a situation worth monitoring.
Mark Vientos (NYM): 2-3, 2 2B, R, RBI, BB.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Vientos’ season so far is that he hasn’t suffered through a notable lull at any point; he just keeps hitting. Vientos cracked two doubles in this game—including one that traveled 366 feet—and continues to flash prodigious power. He does have more swing-and-miss in his game than has shown up on the stat sheet so far, but his 14.9% barrel rate speaks to a potential 35+ home run talent and there’s no reason not to buy in at this point.
Michael Conforto (SFG): 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI.
Conforto hit just .143 in June after an IL stint for a leg injury, but has turned things around big-time in July, hitting .292 with a homer and five doubles this month. The Giants continue to protect him from lefties, but he’s flashing some promising signs under the hood—including one of the highest Hard Hit rates of his career (45%). Those in daily leagues may want to roll the dice on a healthy Conforto getting back into a groove these next few weeks.
Max Schuemann (OAK): 2-4, 2 R, SB.
Schuemann hasn’t received a ton of fanfare this year—it tends to happen when you play for a team that nobody can stomach watching—but he’s very quietly put together a decent fantasy season to this point. He’s now stolen three bases over the past week to go along with two home runs and a .364 average. And while his passivity will likely tamp down his average rest-of-season, he’s locked down full-time at-bats and has enough speed and pop to be interesting for those in 14-team leagues and deeper.
Rece Hinds (CIN): 1-4, RBI, SB.
After a record-setting first two games in the majors that saw Hinds record five extra-base hits—including two mammoth home runs—Hinds showed off the other element of his game last night: his blazing speed. Anytime you’re talking about a guy who had a 38% strikeout rate in the minors, you know to expect the floor to drop out at any time. But for now the good times are rolling, and there’s no shame in seeing how much value you can get here before the league inevitably adjusts.
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)