Lux Aeterna
Gavin Lux (LAD): 2-2, 2B, HR, R, RBI.
It’s been a disappointing return for Gavin Lux to the Dodgers in 2024.
In 2022, Lux hit .276 with a .745 OPS in 471 plate appearances. He only hit six home runs and had seven stolen bases that season. That said, at 24 years old, many thought Lux’s best years were to come in 2023 and beyond, especially after an entire season under his belt.
However, as Dodgers and fantasy baseball fans know, Lux tore his ACL in spring training last season and missed the 2023 campaign. He returned in time for spring training this year. It was expected that while there may be an adjustment after missing all of 2023, Lux would be the kind of fantasy player who could play multiple positions around the infield and be a solid bet in terms of average, with the possibility for double-double upside in home runs and stolen bases.
Unfortunately, that “hope for Lux” has not been realized this season, much to the frustration of those who drafted him in the late rounds as a fantasy “sleeper.”
For the season, Lux is only hitting .217 with a .582 OPS in 282 plate appearances. His 6.8% walk rate is down 3.2% from 2022, and his 21.1% K% is up 0.9% from that season. His hard-hit rate is also down 3.2%, and his barrel rate has declined by 2.6%. Safe to say, it’s hard to see what Lux does well for the Dodgers, which is why many fantasy managers who initially rostered him this year have cut bait (he’s rostered in only 8% of Yahoo Leagues).
Even though it was a first half to forget, Lux had a memorable outing on Saturday.
Against a Red Sox team competing for a playoff spot, Lux went 2-for-2 with a double and his fourth home run of the year. Lux’s home run off Boston’s Brayan Bello set the tone for the Dodgers in Saturday’s contest against the Red Sox. Lux hit his home run at 107.1 mph and would’ve been a homer in 24 of 30 ballparks.
The light on Lux’s outlook as a fantasy-relevant player seems to have dimmed a lot since the beginning of the season. On the other hand, the Dodgers need production at the bottom of the lineup, and Lux is still just 26 years old and a homegrown Dodgers product. If he can turn it around, he could earn himself more at-bats down the stretch, which would help the Dodgers be able to keep some of their prospect capital by the trade deadline.
It’s only one game, though. Lux has to show more in the coming weeks to earn more at-bats in the second half, especially with Dodgers fans clamoring for more hitting help by the July 30 deadline.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Saturday.
Randy Arozarena (TBR): 4-5, 2B, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
A four-hit and two-homer day helped Arozarena get his OPS back over .700. It’s the first time since April 5 that his OPS has been above the .700 mark. There are questions about Arozarena’s long-term future in Tampa Bay, as the Rays said they would listen to offers on him (along with Yandy Díaz and Isaac Paredes). A second-half turnaround may only increase his trade value, whether at the trade deadline or this offseason.
Tyler O’Neill (BOS): 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.
The Red Sox fell short again against the Dodgers, which tied them for the last Wild Card spot with the Royals. Boston fans can’t blame O’Neill, who had two home runs and four RBI in the 7-6 loss. O’Neill has been a revelation in Boston this year, with 18 home runs and a .871 OPS in 297 plate appearances. Not only will he be critical to a postseason run for the Red Sox, but a solid second half could also net him some considerable money in free agency this offseason.
Marcell Ozuna (ATL): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
Ozuna had two home runs in Atlanta’s 9-5 loss to the Cardinals in the second game of their Saturday doubleheader. He continues to be Atlanta’s best offensive player, which could put him in the hunt for some Silver Slugger and MVP honors. He’s hitting .305 with a .972 OPS and hit his 27th and 28th home runs on Saturday. He also has an 18.4% barrel rate this year, a 1.8% increase from 2023. Thus, Ozuna’s power production isn’t going anywhere.
Brent Rooker (OAK): 2-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.
Rooker is also a name that is getting some trade buzz, which makes sense given that the Athletics are clearly in rebuilding mode and getting ready to move to Sacramento next season. Against a struggling Angels team, Rooker had two hits, three RBI, and launched his 22nd home run of the year. He’s on pace to surpass his 22 home runs from a year ago and is posting a .951 OPS, 134 points better than his mark in 2023. Safe to say, the A’s should get an excellent return for Rooker at the trade deadline.
Jordan Westburg (BAL): 3-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
There’s been no “All-Star Hangover” for Westburg. On Saturday, he had three hits and hit his 16th home run of the season in the Orioles’ 8-4 win over the Rangers. Baltimore is in a dogfight with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, so a solid second half from the Orioles’ third baseman will be key. In 378 plate appearances, he is hitting .273 with a .818 OPS. He also is doing this as the Orioles’ No. 6 hitter. That shows the depth of this Baltimore lineup.
Oneil Cruz (PIT): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.
After a disappointing April (.580 OPS), Cruz is slowly showing why he was such a hyped prospect in baseball a couple of years ago. He had a 1.032 OPS in July, and he’s been particularly productive since the All-Star break. In nine second-half plate appearances, he has five hits, including three doubles and a home run, which was hit on Saturday. Cruz has 15 home runs and a .766 OPS for the season and seems primed to at least be a 20+ HR hitter by the end of 2024.
David Peralta (SDP): 2-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB.
Peralta came up big for the Padres, helping them score seven runs against the Guardians, which was plenty enough for Padres ace Dylan Cease (they won 7-0). Peralta had two hits and blasted his second home run of the season. Peralta has been more of a utility type for the Padres this year, as he only has 103 plate appearances. At 36 years old, his best years are behind him, but a utility hitter who can hit around .250-.260 and possibly post a .700+ OPS (he has a .682 OPS now) is not a bad weapon to have on the bench.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): 3-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Since cutting off his trademark locks, Guerrero Jr. has experienced the reverse Samson effect. After cutting his hair on June 19 (to celebrate his five years in the major leagues), he has increased his OPS from .759 to .834 today. He also is hitting .330 with nine home runs over that time frame. On Saturday, he hit his 16th home run of the season. The barrel and hard-hit rates are up for Guerrero from a year ago, so it sounds like this upward progression since cutting his hair should continue.
Ezequiel Tovar (COL): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI.
It’s been a weird July for the Rockies shortstop. From July 1 to July 8, he went hitless in 30 plate appearances. That included zero walks and a strikeout rate of 36.7%. In 41 plate appearances from July 9 to July 20, he is hitting .395 with four home runs, his latest coming on Saturday against the Giants. He still struck out a lot during this most recent stretch. He has a 29.2% K% to only a 2.4% BB%. That said, it seems like Tovar has put his frigid start to July behind him, much to the relief of fantasy managers who roster Tovar.