Belly Up

Cody Bellinger (NYY): 3-4, 2 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.

Bellinger’s quietly had a dynamite July, swatting .338 with a .979 OPS and six homers. The fireworks had cooled off in his first series after the All-Star Break as he went 3-for-14 against the Braves (though he did have a homer). But then again, he’s been up and down his whole career.

And that’s putting it lightly, from an MVP season in 2019 where he hit 47 homers and batted over .300 to a .165 average two years later (injuries were a factor). After the Dodgers left him out in the cold after six seasons, Belly found himself healthier with the Cubs—he had a career-high .307 average in 2022 (though his BABIP that year was insane) and scored 95 runs with 97 RBIs in 130 games.

Now with the Yankees in a December trade, Bellinger has done everything the Yanks (and fantasy managers) could ask for. He’s now tied last year’s totals in homers (19) and steals (9) while we’re still in July and pushed his OPS up 78 points over last season’s. He’s barreling at a better rate than in 2024 and has a career-low K-rate (a stellar 13.7%). And his exit velo’s, always a sore spot for the slugger, have shown improvement (and he only averaged 91.1 mph on that metric in his MVP season).

So yeah, the short porch at Yankee Stadium is helping him out some, just as savvy drafters expected:

 

So last night’s three-XBH performance came as a surprise, not just because he was in the distant confines of the Rogers Centre, but also because he faced a pitcher in Max Scherzer who had dominated him—in 16 at-bats against Mad Max, Bellinger had a .063 average with 10 K’s.

So maybe it wasn’t a surprise that he’d Belly would try something new, which was swing at practically everything. He took a hack at the first pitch he saw and it worked out in the form of a 104-mph double to center field. He’d repeat the approach in his next AB, only this time he’d connect on the second pitch. And then in his third at-bat, with Scherzer still on the mound in the fifth, Belly lifted one out to right-center field for a solo homer (he’d end up swinging six times on eight pitches). So, maybe this new approach is something he’ll stick with. It’ll be fun to watch and find out.

 

Let’s see how the other hitters did Tuesday

Spencer Horwitz (PIT): 3-4, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Dating back to his season debut in mid-May, Horwitz is still sitting on just two homers, but he did have a respectable June with a .286 average and .778 OPS. July has been less kind as those numbers have dropped to .226/.569, and his lack of power and speed (sixth-percentile with 25.1 f/s) make him a hard pass in Roto, but his 13.2% K-minus-BB rate is passable in a points league. The Pirates are also leading him off lately, so even in a subpar lineup, he sometimes sees five ABs a night. If you’re in a deeper ESPN-type points league, you could do worse.

 

Francisco Alvarez (NYM): 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.

It’s easy to forget Alvarez was once a top prospect that dynasty owners salivated over, but his performance has yet to live up to the potential. Now in the post-hype phase of his career, and with the Mets lineup as good as it’s been in years, maybe it’s time to jump back on board. After struggling most of the season, Alvarez did a month-long stint in Syracuse, and the results were bonkers—eleven homers in 74 at-bats and a 1.129 OPS. Yes, that is a home run in every 6.7 ABs. He’s probably second among catchers in pure power (I think you know who is first), so grab him before someone else does.

Oneil Cruz (PIT): 2-4, 2 2B, R, BB, SB.

Cruz was batting leadoff for most of the season, but his on-base percentage in recent months (.323 in May, .283 in June, .268 in July) has pushed him down to fifth. It seems to have shaken him out of his rut (or maybe it was his appearance at the Home Run Derby). Cruz has become an extreme all-or-nothing entity at the plate, with 100th-percentile bat speed and Average Exit Velocity (78.6 and 96.3 mph, respectively), but it comes with a third-percentile whiff rate and first-percentile K-rate. At least he has a good eye at the plate, resulting in an excellent 12.6% walk rate, which feeds into his NL-leading 31 steals. Still, Cruz might want to swing just a little less hard to better round out his game.

Bryan Reynolds (PIT): 3-5, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI.

Reynolds has not been having his typical top-100 season, partially due to a K-rate that’s five percentage points higher than his career average. But while his batting average is around 40 points lower than 2024’s (.234 to .275), his xBA is four points higher (.274 to .270). So many of his struggles appear to be due to bad luck rather than performance, which other GMs will surely consider around the trade deadline. They’ll also notice he’s hitting .292 with an .832 SLG when runners are in scoring position, and seems to hit better when DH-ing (as he did last night).

 

Marcus Semien (TEX): 1-4, HR, R, RBI.

Quite the up-and-down season for Semien, or maybe it should be down-and-up since he was hitting .141 over his first 20 games and then batted .324 in June with a .932 OPS and 18 runs with 16 RBIs. His average had dropped back down to .230 before tonight’s game, however, going 0-for in his first four games after the All-Star Break. He got into one last night, though, clanging a ball about 20 feet up the left-field foul pole. He might never be a lead-off hitter that racks up 700 plate appearances each season (a .209 OBP hitting first will do that), but the Rangers have been hitting him in the middle of the lineup with better results.

 

Corey Seager (TEX): 2-4, 2B, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Another Ranger who’s been disappointing for much of the year, Seager is starting to tear it up and has the metrics to prove it. Believe it or not, he’s in the 99th percentile in xBA, 98th in xSLG, and 98th in Hard-hit rate. So, except for the career-high 12.6% Walk Rate, this should be a normal 35-to-40 homer season, right? Well, not quite, but he could get to 30 with a monster second half (and he did already miss a few weeks with a bad hammy, which clearly affected him in June). So 15 homers in the next 60 games? It’s a bet I think I’d take.

 

Rafael Devers (SFG): 2-5, 2B, 2 R, RBI.

Hey, look who’s playing first base! Devers is only slashing .229/.338/.349 with his new team, so it’s been a bit of a slog in these first thirty games (the SLG is down over 150 points from Boston). But the tools and advanced metrics are all still there, so this slow start shouldn’t last long. Still, the park effect in San Fran is real, so he might be more of a fourth-rounder next season than a top-20 bat. He’s got 60 games to prove me wrong.